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NFL Odds: Week 8 Values Against The Spread

By Matthew Lottice

Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Which NFL Week 8 games provide the best value against the spread?

Week 8 is here thanks in part to weekly Thursday night games. Nothing indicates hypocrisy more than the NFL asserting player safety is paramount except for TV contracts requesting weeknight contests or league orchestrated trips to London. I suppose Roger Goodell is to blame for it all and not owners right?

That sounds like a good debate for Tony Reali on Around the Horn. I can’t wait for Pablo S. Torre’s commentary. Or not.

Pick time. Tail, fade, flip a coin, or ride your own scorching hot streak. Take out a second on your residence and push it all. You can always get it back next week. Good luck!

Carolina +5: Cam Newton has been reliving days at the University of Auburn in terms of being the Panthers main offensive weapon. He’s carried much of the load without Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams out. After tying with Cincinnati, the Panthers hit the road again only to be demolished 38-17 in Green Bay. Stewart returned, but the Panthers have questions regarding health on their offensive line and secondary.

Seattle isn’t exempt from their own issues. They have dropped two in a row and dealt Percy Harvin because of his discontent with not getting the ball enough. Interpreting outside reports with caution, there is rumored turmoil in Pete Carroll’s locker room. Seattle made St. Louis hold on for a 28-26 victory, but the Rams outplayed them in all facets. Now they fly across the country two weeks in a row as favorites. The Seahawks are hampered by injuries themselves. It’s transparent Carroll’s roster isn’t as deep as last season and the injured reserve list has allowed other teams to exploit it.

Russell Wilson has bested Cam Newton two straight years at Carolina. It hasn’t been pretty with 16-12 and 12-7 victories, but Wilson can lay claim for winning nevertheless. He may go for three in a row, but 5.5 points is pricey. Traveling, plus a revenge angle for a Carolina team at home getting over a field goal works for me.

New York Jets +3: Like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith is a quarterback who can make bettors quake in their boots pending they are on him. He’s just a second-year player, but he can make some very costly decisions in the crux of a game that are simply mind-boggling for NFL quarterback standards. The Jets did get a lengthy break to prepare for a Buffalo team as field goal underdogs.

That said, New York came within a two-point conversion and field goal attempt of tying and beating New England last Thursday. They competed well as Chris Ivory’s 107-yard game buttressed his candidacy for being Rex Ryan’s feature back. Last Friday, the Jets traded a late round draft pick for explosive receiver/returner/flex back Percy Harvin. We’ll see how fast Harvin will be incorporated in Marty Mornhinweg’s offense, but at least he provides more speed on the outside for an offense in need of a few playmakers.

Oct 16, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA. New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to throw the ball during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 16, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA. New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to throw the ball during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports /

Doug Marrone and GM Doug Whaley have quietly assembled an AFC East contender at 4-3. Even with E.J. Manuel benched and Kyle Orton called upon (how poorly does it reflect on many current NFL QBs?) to captain an offense predicated on the run. Orton found rookie Sammy Watkins for a game-winning touchdown to defeat Minnesota. He’ll play an entire game without C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the backfield. Without them, Ryan might dial up some complex blitzes that will remind Orton why he considered retirement in the first place.

Baltimore +1: John Harbaugh’s Ravens are functioning like a well-oiled machine at 5-2. Their first loss came at home to Cincinnati in Week 1 by a 23-16 score. Andy Dalton found A.J. Green for a 77-yard touchdown with less than five minutes to go for the win. The Bengals’ deep threat has missed two games with a toe injury and is questionable this weekend.

Missing one of the league’s elite wideouts has slowed Marvin Lewis’ offense. After a 33-7 route of Tennessee, Cincinnati was ripped by New England, tied Carolina, and were shut out 27-0 last Sunday at Indianapolis. The defense has suddenly deteriorated into a wall of balsa wood. Three weeks ago, this was the league’s best scoring defense. Now it’s allowing the second most total yardage per game (416.7) and has dipped to 18th at 23.3 points allowed.

Here is another vengeance opportunity for one AFC North division rival over another. The Ravens are surging, while the Bengals continue searching for answers to eschew a .500 record. With Baltimore one-point dogs, linesmakers essentially make this a coin toss in their book since home field advantage is routinely considered a 3-3.5 point edge.

Pittsburgh +3: Andrew Luck couldn’t have provided Jim Irsay’s Colts with a smoother transition away from Peyton Manning. He’s an elite quarterback in his third year and orchestrates an offense first in total yards (452.9 ypg), first in passing yards (329.6), and second in scoring (30.9 ppg). Their defense has been commendable as well, limiting opponents to 19.4 ppg without safety LaRon Landry and edge rusher Robert Mathis. Indianapolis is a comfortable 5-2, first in the AFC South and are 6-1 against the Vegas number in 2014.

The Steelers took advantage of a catastrophic Houston Texans close to Monday Night Football’s first half. They scored 21 points in under three minutes to assume a 24-13 at halftime. From there, Pittsburgh massaged its lead in the second half without scoring another touchdown.

I’m not a fan of Ben Roethlisberger (multiple rape allegations are indeed the cause), but on the field he is difficult to sack and has a new primary receiver in Antonio Brown. Dick LeBeau’s unit is gradually improving from a health standpoint. At 4-3 with the benefit of not having to fly on a short week, coach Mike Tomlin is sanguine about their 2014 prospects moving forward. Trent Richardson and Reggie Wayne are questionable for Indy with hamstring and elbow concerns respectively. An overwhelming majority is on the Colts. It’s my trap game for Week 8.

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