The Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl are two college football rivalry games that could have a lot to say about who is selected for the College Football Playoff this year.
Four teams, one conference, one division, two games…all vying for a coveted spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff. It’s almost like a playoff to get into the playoffs.
The Iron Bowl and the Egg Bowl, two of the oldest college football rivalry games, with four teams all residing in the Southeastern Conference’s Western Division.
In recent history, the Iron Bowl — the Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide — has had much more significance in terms of the former BCS and who played for the national championship than its poor cousin, the Egg Bowl, featuring the Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels.
In fact, in the last five seasons, the winner of the Iron Bowl ended up playing for the national championship.
The Egg Bowl, on the other hand, has essentially never really had much to say about who was or was not going to be champion of the college football world.
But all that could change this season.
Stress the word, could.
As it stands right now, both Ole Miss and Mississippi State are undefeated. Should both teams hold up for the remainder of the season, then the winner of the 2014 Egg Bowl is pretty much certain to be invited to the playoffs.
But don’t count out Auburn and Bama just yet, as both teams only have one loss and could end up meeting in the Iron Bowl that way.
So which of these two old rivalry games will mean more in terms of the postseason this year? Here are some possible outcomes leading into the games.
Scenario 1 – Mississippi State and Ole Miss both win out until the Egg Bowl. No question, that game featuring two undefeated teams would be the premier regular season game of the year.
Edge: Egg Bowl
Scenario 2 – Auburn beats Ole Miss on Nov. 1, Alabama beats Mississippi State on Nov. 15. All four teams enter their respective rivalry bowls with one loss. If this ends up being the case, you’d have to think that Alabama and Auburn would have the edge over both Mississippi teams with victories over them so late in the season
Edge: Iron Bowl
Scenario 3 – Either Auburn beats Ole Miss on Nov. 1 or Alabama beats Mississippi State on Nov. 14. One Mississippi team is undefeated, one Alabama team has two losses. If this is the case you’ll have a one-loss team from Alabama playing a 2-loss team from Alabama, and an undefeated Mississippi team playing a one-loss one. The committee would have to lean towards the game containing an undefeated team, the winner of which more than likely getting the playoff invite.
Edge: Egg Bowl
Scenario 4 – Both Ole Miss and Mississippi State lose one game (not to Auburn or Alabama) and enter the Egg Bowl with one loss, but having beaten both teams from Alabama prior to that, Bama and Auburn both come into the Iron Bowl with two losses each. This is really no different than scenario one, except that there would be no guarantee that the winner of a one-loss Egg Bowl would be invited to the playoffs. The Iron Bowl would still be on the short end, as the winner would still be a two-loss team.
Edge: Egg Bowl
Scenario 5 – Either Mississippi State or Ole Miss stumbles to a couple of losses, and plays an undefeated opponent in the Egg Bowl, while Auburn and Alabama have a one-loss/two-loss matchup in the Iron Bowl. If this is the case then history and the committee may look favorably on the Iron Bowl winner if the one-loss team wins. The only thing that would give the Egg Bowl more clout is if the undefeated team were to easily win that game.
Edge: Push
Scenario 6 – Both Ole Miss and Mississippi State come into the Egg Bowl with two or more losses, while Alabama and Auburn both have one loss entering the Iron Bowl. No question that this would place the importance of the Iron Bowl higher, although none of the four teams could really be looked at as can’t-miss for the playoffs.
Edge: Iron Bowl
Scenario 7 – Both the Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl feature one-loss/two-loss matchups, with one or the other of the Alabama teams having beaten one of the Mississippi teams. This is absolutely the most insane possibility, especially if the two one-loss teams come out on top. If the one-loss Mississippi team wins the Egg Bowl, but that single loss is to the one-loss team who wins the Iron Bowl, then there’s your tiebreaker, and vice versa. However, if that one loss is to another team besides one of these four, then it becomes bedlam for the committee to sort out.
Edge: Push
Scenario 8 – All four teams go into their respective rivalry bowls with two losses. If this happens, and none of the teams are really in a position to be selected for the playoffs, then it will return to the status quo and become just another rivalry weekend.
Edge: Iron Bowl
Obviously there are plenty of other possible combinations of wins and losses, but these are the eight most likely to happen.
So lets count it up.
Egg Bowl – 3, Iron Bowl – 3, Push – 2
Given than more of these potential outcomes that involve playoff possibilities hinging on the Egg Bowl, we’ll give the final tiebreaker to that game. Either way, it’s clear that both of these old rivalry games will in some way or another likely have a say in which of these four teams is invited to the first College Football Playoff.
And the SEC-haters across America just dropped their collective heads on their desks.
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