Oct 19, 2014; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Orton (18) calls an audible against the Minnesota Vikings during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Bills beat the Vikings 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
The best possible Quarterback value:
Kyle Orton at NYJ ($7,200) – If you would have told me that I would have spent Week 8 of this year writing Kyle Orton down as the best play on FanDuel, I would have probably slapped you. But here we are, and Orton is the best possible FanDuel play in my opinion, thanks to his matchup and the projected game flow numbers. Jets opponents have on average attempted 34.9 passes a game, which is an indication that they are game planning to throw on this bad Jets secondary. The Jets have allowed the most points to opposing quarterbacks this week, and Orton is coming off a 16 fantasy point game. Plus, if you didn’t know, the Bills lost both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson last week, and I find it slightly difficult to believe that they would just turn over the backfield to an unproven back. This team is going to be throwing, and the Jets are the worst at defending the pass. Trust Orton this week.
Other Quarterbacks values that I like:
Nick Foles at Arizona ($8,200) – Foles is coming off a bye, with an offensive mastermind for a head coach. Foles has been playing great in fantasy football, and the majority of that has to do with his pass attempts so far this season. In his last six games, Foles has averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game, so the opportunity is definitely going to be there. It’ll be interesting to see if he takes advantage of it this week against Cardinals.
Ryan Tannehill at Jacksonville ($8,400) – I’ll take the bait, I’ll buy in to Ryan Tannehill this week. Tannehill is so hard to trust because of his past, but this week, he should be able to step up when everyone is counting him. The Jaguars are without a couple of key players on that defense. It’s a bad defense anyway, which is going to lead to even worse results. Plus, this feeling isn’t all matchup based. Ryan Tannehill has managed to score 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games. Tannehill’s been good, so I think we have to buy in.
Quarterbacks values that I dislike:
Andy Dalton v. Baltimore ($8,000) – Dalton without A.J. Green shouldn’t be considered in any format. Dalton has yet to top 20-plus fantasy points so far this season, and it won’t come this week against a tough Baltimore defense. In Dalton’s six games so far this season, he’s managed to score multiple touchdowns just twice.
Cam Newton v. Seattle ($8,100) – He wasn’t horrible against Green Bay last week, but his 14 fantasy points were certainly disappointing. Cam Newton has only topped 20 fantasy points once so far this season. In Cam Newton’s six games this season, he’s carried the ball more than 10 times in only one game and that was his 20 point game. The Panthers haven’t been running him, and if he doesn’t have that upside, then he’s tough to trust.
Risky value but I like it:
Zach Mettenberger v. Houston ($5,200) – Mettenberger is a rookie, and he is a huge risk play. But after looking at what having in his lineup could do for you, I’m on board. I think Mettenberger could score 15 fantasy points, which is all you need if you have him in the lineup. It’s a risk that I’m willing to take.
Oct 19, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Ahmad Bradshaw (44) reacts to scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis defeats Cincinnati 27-0. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
The best possible Running Backs values:
Mark Ingram v. Green Bay ($6,100) – A lot of people are going to look at last weeks performance and shy away from Ingram. However, if that’s the case, I couldn’t be more excited for Ingram this week. With Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson out on Sunday, that leaves the backfield to just Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet. Ingram is a good value and we have to buy in.
Ahmad Bradshaw at Pittsburgh ($7,000) – Even if Trent Richardson manages to play at this point, you would imagine that his zero practice reps were going to be a huge step in the right direction for Ahmad Bradshaw this week. In Bradshaw’s seven games this season, he’s topped 10 fantasy points in five of them.
Other Running Backs values that I like:
Justin Forsett at Cincinnati ($6,700) – Forsett has been solid in fantasy football every week. Forsett has managed to score over 10 fantasy points in four of his seven games so far this season. Until Forsett proves otherwise, he’s a safe play in a good matchup.
Darren McFadden at Cleveland ($6,100) – I don’t love Darren McFadden’s talent, but I love the matchup this week. In one of my FanDuel leagues, I’m buying into the matchup. The Browns currently give up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and they’ve only gotten worse as the season has progressed.
Lamar Miller at Jacksonville ($7,400) – Perhaps I’m way too high on Lamar Miller this week, because every time that I buy into the Dolphins, they don’t live up to the expectations. That said, I have to buy into the situation and the matchup this week. The Jaguars give up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and they’ve had some soft matchups lately.
Running Backs values that I dislike:
LeSean McCoy at Arizona ($8,000) – It is tough to count out LeSean McCoy, but this week I’m out on him. The Cardinals give up the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Although LeSean McCoy is coming off a big 14 point game, Arizona has yet to allow multiple touchdowns in a game to opposing running backs. That means there is limited upside for LeSean McCoy this week.
Zac Stacy at Kansas City ($7,200) – Jeff Fisher said that there is a chance Stacy may see 25 touches this week. I’m not buying it, and for this price, it’s dangerous. Some people might buy into that statement from Fisher and might be out $7,200 for zero fantasy points. It’s just not worth the risk to start someone who literally saw zero touches just last week. The Chiefs have given up the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and with zero touches and a tough matchup, let’s pass on him.
Giovani Bernard v. Baltimore ($8,600) -Yuck! I’m so down on Giovani Bernard this week. He plays against the Baltimore Ravens, who currently give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. If you take out Giovani Bernard’s big play against the Panthers, then you’d realize that’s he’s struggled as of late. If you take out the big run, Bernard has managed just 135 yards on his last 37 carries, which would be 3.6 yards per carry.
Risky, but I’ll gamble:
Tre Mason at Kansas City ($6,000) – I’m slightly worried about Tre Mason this week because I think there is a chance that this St. Louis team goes back to a committee backfield. I certainly hope that this isn’t the case, but it’s hard to believe that the Rams would just turn the backfield over to a rookie who can’t pass block. There was a clear game flow situation that called for Mason, and this week it could be for Stacy. I guess we will see, but right now it’s a huge risk.
Oct 12, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) makes a catch against Atlanta Falcons cornerback Robert McClain (27) in the second quarter of their game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
The best possible Wide Receivers values:
Brandon Marshall at New England ($7,400) – Even though Brandon Marshall has struggled as of late and has a bad matchup, I’m buying in on the value for a star wide receiver. Brandon Marshall has only managed 10-plus fantasy points in three of his seven games so far this season. Now that Brandon Marshall has supposedly called out Jay Cutler in the locker room, you can expect Jay to be looking at Brandon Marshall early and often. I expect a big game from him this week.
Other Wide Receivers values that I like:
Sammy Watkins at NYJ ($7,300) – 9 catches, 122 yards and a touchdown for Sammy Watkins last week? Those numbers are unbelievable. But now a lot of people are going to buy into him in a good matchup. In FanDuel its good to. Start the sure things, and Watkins is without a question a sure thing this week against the Jets. The Jets have given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and with the Bills options, one can assume they’ll be going to him all game long.
T.Y. Hilton at Pittsburgh ($7,900) – No Reggie Wayne? No problem for the Colts. Andrew Luck is going to be looking for Hilton today as he is one of the only receivers he can trust in the offense. In Hilton’s last three games, he’s caught at least seven passes in all of them. Plus, in all of Hilton’s games so far this season, he had not caught fewer than five passes in any game. T.Y. Hilton is the definition of safe this weekend.
Michael Floyd v. Philadelphia ($6,500) – Philadelphia just has been so bad in the passing game that if someone is going to explode on this Cardinals offense, then it’s going to be Michael Floyd. Floyd’s catches are down in the last three weeks, but look for him to catch eight passes this Sunday in a game that is going to require the Cardinals to air it out.
Mike Wallace at Jacksonville ($7,500) – There is so much big play potential for Mike Wallace this weekend. It doesn’t seem like it, but Mike Wallace might be the safest bet to score a touchdown on a weekly basis. In his six games so far this season, he’s caught a touchdown pass in five of them. Although he’s yet to top 100-yards receiving this season, I think this could be the big week for him that fantasy owners are looking for.
Wide Receivers values that I dislike:
Mohamed Sanu v. Baltimore ($7,000) – Sanu has actually been solid, I just look at this Bengals offense and just am not excited about it. In fact, without A.J. Green, it’s tempting to just bench everyone. In a tough divisional matchup, you can’t trust Sanu to win you money in FanDuel this week. If you want to give me money, then I’ll start him.
Hakeem Nicks at Pittsburgh ($5,300) – Reggie Wayne is out, so should you take a flyer on Hakeem Nicks? Absolutely not. If you look at the comments from Chuck Pagano this week, you’d realize that there is no guarantee that Nicks is even starting in Wayne’s absence. The Colts have a rising star receiver in Donte Moncrief, and now would be a good time to get him involved in the offense. So, sorry Hakeem Nicks fans, I said it at the beginning of the season and I’ll say it again: Hakeem Nicks is washed up.
Vincent Jackson v. Minnesota ($7,300) – I don’t know if it’s his 43% catch rate or his value that turns me off more. Jackson has also struggled to practice this week, and is listed as questionable. But if you look at his stats so far this season, he’s managed 25 catches on 60 targets. That’s about as bad as it can get. Plus, in Vincent Jackson’s six games this season, he’s broke 10 fantasy points only once. I’m out on Vincent Jackson for now.
Oct 19, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham (80) against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Lions defeated the Saints 24-23. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
The best possible Tight End values:
Jordan Reed at Dallas ($5,200) – You can write Reed up for the “big time risk play” as well. Colt McCoy will be making his first start as a Redskin, and I don’t know where he will be looking to throw the football. I do know that Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay used to be a tight end coac, and they have been going to the tight end often so far this season. Reed has been back for two games, and has scored over 10 points in one of those. I’m buying in for now.
Other Tight Ends values that I like:
Zach Ertz at Arizona ($5,400) – Ertz managed to score a touchdown and get 10-plus fantasy points in his last game. However, how much can we trust him? Not at all. We can’t really trust any tight end, we just have to look at the matchups and hope that everything works out. The Cardinals have given up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and I think that Chip Kelly is going to make him a factor in this offense coming off the bye. In Ertz I trust this week, as I am starting him in three leagues.
Jimmy Graham v. GB ($7,000) – There will be a bunch of people that won’t touch him, but that’s fine with me. I’ll take my cash. You guys sit the best tight end in football and I’ll start him and win money. No, but seriously, Graham just clearly wasn’t a factor in last weeks game. This week, its safe to count on Graham again.
Tight Ends values that I dislike:
Gavin Escobar v. Washington ($5,900) – Are there fantasy players out there who are currently buying into Escobar? Because I’ve spoke to all my friends who have played FanDuel forever, and they have said that they can’t touch him. But who can blame them? Sure, Escobar was awesome last week, but I’ll put my money where my mouth is. That it won’t happen again.
Jordan Cameron v. Oakland ($5,800) – He scored one fantasy point last week, and he may go through a quarterback change. Those scenarios don’t exactly scream home run play for this Sunday. People will look at the matchup and play Cameron, but oh boy are they going to regret that. The Raiders haven’t been horrible against the tight end, and that just adds on to the reasons to not trust Cameron this week.