The College Football Playoff, for all intents and purposes, unofficially begins this Saturday, November 8th.
The second edition of the 2014 College Football Playoff Rankings were released Tuesday night. As each week passes and each new set of rankings is released, we can begin to get an idea of what the College Football Playoff committee values and which games have the biggest impact moving forward.
On this coming Saturday — November 8th — six games featuring 12 of the committee’s top 17 teams will take place. Given the time of the year and the number of one loss and undefeated teams left in the country, all six of those games are setting up to be elimination games as they relate to teams eventually qualifying for the College Football Playoff.
Let’s take a look at each game and look at the ramifications of winning and losing them.
No. 7 Kansas State at No. 6 Texas Christian — It is unlikely that the Big 12 Champion will qualify for the College Football Playoff with two losses. That makes this game the most important one of the season thus far in the conference. Only three one-loss teams remain and this will immediately cut that number to two. Should Kansas State win, they control their own destiny the rest of the way until their season ending matchup with Baylor on December 6. Should Texas Christian win, their hopes would then rest largely on Kansas State beating Baylor in the December 6 matchup.
No. 12 Baylor at No. 15 Oklahoma — Speaking of Baylor, they are still alive. As long as they still have one loss, they control their own destiny in the Big 12 thanks to a win over Texas Christian earlier in the season. Unfortunately, they trail the Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff Rankings. This means that not only do they need to beat Oklahoma, they also need Kansas State to knock off Texas Christian and set up a winner-take-all game on December 6. In the meantime, Oklahoma is playing for a spot in one of the four major bowls not associated with the playoff in 2014. A loss likely knocks the Sooner out of the running to do so.
No. 5 Alabama at No. 16 LSU — The LSU Tigers keep hanging around in the rankings, just high enough to both count as a quality win in the eyes of the committee and play their way into the same bowl scenario as Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Alabama can taste the top four and control their own destiny in the SEC West. A win in Death Valley would mean only three more hurdles would stand in the way of a guaranteed spot in the College Football Playoff: A win over Mississippi State, a win over Auburn and a win in the SEC title game. An Alabama loss could start a domino effect in the SEC where none of the conference’s teams emerge with less than two losses, putting the SEC’s playoff hopes in jeopardy.
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 9 Arizona State — This one is simple. A two-loss Notre Dame team isn’t making the playoff unless every other conference champion has two losses. A two-loss Pac 12 team isn’t likely to make the playoff as long as a one-loss Notre Dame team exists. So while Arizona State could lose this game and still win the conference, it would likely mean the end of the road for the Sun Devils’ playoff hopes. Notre Dame is essentially eliminated with a loss, however, they would receive a huge boost by beating Arizona State and control their own destiny the rest of the way.
No. 4 Oregon at No. 17 Utah — The earlier loss to Washington State is going to haunt the Utes, but they still have a shot at one of the major bowls and control their own destiny in that respect. In the meantime, the Oregon Ducks are clinging to the No. 4 spot in the rankings by the slimmest of margins. Not only do they need to win to stay in the top four, but they need to win convincingly in order to avoid being jumped by a victorious Alabama. That will be easier said than done against Utah in Salt Lake City.
No. 14. Ohio State at No. 8 Michigan State — The Big Ten was left for dead after Week 2 of the season. Now, the conference has four team in the College Football Playoff Rankings and three in the top 14. This matchup between the Buckeyes and Spartans arguably means more than any of the others this weekend. Not only does the winner stay alive and control their own destiny, but the ongoing perception of the Big Ten as one of the two weakest Power 5 conferences will send the loser tumbling further down the rankings than any other ranked team who loses on Saturday.
Regardless of who wins, they’ll want Nebraska to run the table and continue to climb the rankings in order to provide one more quality opponent in the Big Ten Championship game. Should that happen and both participants have only one-loss, the winner would all but be guaranteed a spot in the playoff. But that all starts with a win on Saturday.
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