We quell overreactions to the NBA‘s opening week
As Matthew Berry of ESPN says, it’s time for some “overreaction theater!”
Most teams have played about four games and it’s time to quell some popular overreactions to what’s happening across the NBA.
We won’t have a good sense of these teams until they’ve played about 30 games giving us a variety of opponents and scenarios (back-to-backs, multiple days off, travel and homestands). As teams only play 3-4 times a week that puts us near 60 days or two months at the earliest that we’ll know enough about these teams to make any proclamations. So around January, we will see more clearly.
We’ll start with one of the most obvious overreactions.
Will the Lakers be the worst team in the league?
This is clearly not going to happen. Kobe is putting up his points, but the rest is a disaster. Their defense is just abysmal and lets the opponent through like a sieve.
While it’s difficult for anyone that isn’t a Lakers fan, you’ve got to give them some time. They are still suffering injuries, have new teammates and new coach. There is a big transition period. And it’s LA so there is a ton of scrutiny and pressure, which certainly doesn’t help.
The biggest reason this is somewhat of a fluke, (that they are THIS bad) is the opponents they’ve played. Think about it. In the span of eight days they played the Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns (twice), Los Angeles Clippers, and the Golden State Warriors. Those are all teams that had 48 wins or more last year and all probably playoff-bound teams this year. That’s a rough schedule.
They will be a bottom-seven team in the league for sure, but won’t be the worst. That’s the Philadelphia 76ers, and always will be until they turn things around.
Is Oklahoma City in danger of missing the playoffs?
Things are looking so bleak for the Thunder in terms of injury they are trying to get a hardship exception from the league to sign another player or two. The injured list is long and unfortunately for OKC includes three of their four best players in reigning MVP Kevin Durant, All-Star Russell Westbrook and Jeremy Lamb (the other player not injured being Serge Ibaka).
The Thunder are 1-4 and still will be without Durant and Westbrook for at least another month. However things are not that bleak. “The Replacements” from OKC will probably go a handful of wins under .500 by the time their superstars come back and then they’ll run off a bunch of victories. They are both high on the list of “most minutes played” each year and they will go into the rest of the season fresh. Also, Ibaka and Reggie Jackson will grow on the offensive end and as leaders, which will be important later on in the season.
The Thunder will certainly make the postseason, but will not by vying for a top-three seed. They’ll probably finish as the best five seed in NBA history, advancing against whoever is fourth.
Will the Cavs ever figure it out?
The Cavs don’t look great. They’re 1-3 and haven’t looked like a team expected to win it all come June. They lost to the New York Knicks in their opener, which shouldn’t have happened. After that, they did beat the Bulls, but then went on the get blown out by the Portland Trailblazers and then suffered a close loss to the young, inexperienced Jazz.
They have the pieces with LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, along with the older veterans of Shawn Marion, James Jones and Mike Miller. Unfortunately, they don’t have quality backups. And as LeBron hasn’t played great (for him) the team’s unfamiliarity shines through. Bad passes, bad defensive rotations, forcing the offense. Not what you’re looking for.
They’ll be fine, almost certainly a top-four seed out East, but seeing how they’ve started, you can’t be confident they’ll be a top-two seed until we see some improvement.
Are the Kings for real?
The Kings are rolling early in the year. They started out with a loss to Golden State, then won four straight. It included beating the Nuggets twice, as well as the Clipper and Trailblazers. That’s impressive.
The Kings aren’t for real however, but DeMarcus Cousins is. He’s averaging 24 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists per game, along with 1.2 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. Ridiculously good. If he keeps this up, he has a strong chance of making the All-Star team this year. The only thing that would keep him from getting there would be if the Kings can’t get enough wins.
Will the great starts of the Grizzlies, Rockets and Warriors continue?
In a word: yes. These are great teams who are on hot streaks. They won’t be this hot throughout the year, but will consistently beat good teams.
The Rockets and Warriors have great guard play while the Grizzlies have their two towers. These teams have stability and the ability to play at a high level, day after day. They will be formidable opponents as the season progresses.
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