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NFL Week 10 Picks: Detroit, Arizona Will Beat the Spread

By Matthew Lottice

Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Which NFL Week 10 picks are sure to beat the spread?

My hometown San Francisco 49ers played a horrendous ballgame as a double-digit favorite and with a bye week to prepare for a St. Louis Rams team who they previously defeated. They haven’t played one impressive game inside their new Levi’s Stadium (including preseason) and all the rumors of inner turmoil appear factual in the wake of an embarrassing loss. They are at a crossroads in their season traveling to New Orleans, but that contest won’t be part of my Week 10 NFL picks. Good luck to all!

Detroit -2.5: Joe Philbin’s defense pitched a shutout last week, routing San Diego 37-0 at home last weekend. It was the Dolphins first shutout in eight years and improved their record to 5-3. Ryan Tannehill notched three touchdowns and played in three quarters. Brent Grimes won AFC Defensive Player of the Week and Cameron Wake leads a unit ranked second in scoring (18.9 ppg) and passing yards (201.1 ypg). They beat one team off a bye week and get another one traveling to Detroit. Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle will have to compile a gameplan to mitigate the league’s ninth best passing attack.

Sep 21, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) after the game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. Detroit won 19-7. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 21, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) after the game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. Detroit won 19-7. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /

Jim Caldwell has seamlessly transitioned the 6-2 Lions from Jim Schwartz’s reign. Detroit has the NFL’s best scoring defense (15.8 ppg) thanks in large part to a voracious defensive line that can get pressure without blitzing aid. Matthew Stafford isn’t on pace for a 30 or 40 touchdown season. He’s got 11 TDs, but tempered his interceptions with just seven through eight games. Positive news came after their comeback victory over Atlanta in London that elite wideout Calvin Johnson’s ankle healed. Johnson, along with Reggie Bush inject two more weapons Stafford has been without for multiple games.

Getting the Lions at less than a field goal at home is a bargain. Using a bye week to prepare for a streaking Dolphins team will illustrate how regimented, disciplined, and organized this Detroit team is under Caldwell.

Arizona -7: The Arizona Cardinals 7-1 record is the NFL’s best record. It’s their best start conjuring up recollections of when Don Coryell and Jim Hart teamed up in the 1970s when the team played in St. Louis. Carson Palmer’s troublesome shoulder didn’t hinder Arizona last week in Dallas where he tossed three TDs in a 28-17 win. Head coach Bruce Arians is using a collective refrain of protecting their house when it comes to being at home in Glendale. The Super Bowl will be hosted in Arizona and the Cardinals want to play for a Lombardi Trophy in their home stadium.

Jeff Fisher is a Hall of Fame caliber head coach in this league. He’s encouraging a St. Louis Rams team playing without Sam Bradford and several other first string guys to compete each week. He’s cobbling together a respectable 3-5 record with copper wire and duct tape. Last week, Robert Quinn and the Rams’ defensive line harassed Colin Kaepernick for eight sacks and denied the 49ers a last-second QB sneak effort to preserve a 13-10 upset.

The Rams prevailed over a befuddled Niners squad who committed several errors to hand St. Louis a couple second half field goals. They still had a chance to win, but clumsily fumbled away a QB sneak on the goal-line. Arizona is in a groove and hasn’t lost at home yet. Seven points is a large number to lay, but I can’t back an underdog I feel has no credible shot to win.

Carolina +6.5: Nick Foles broke his clavicle, but Mark Sanchez helped steer the Philadelphia Eagles to a 31-21 win at Houston last week. That was as an emergency backup. Now he’ll do it as a starter, where he’s gone 37-31 with 77 TDs and 72 interceptions. It will be his first start dating back to 2012 for a 6-2 first place team. Chip Kelly’s uptempo system is now in the hands of a guy who didn’t play one regular season down last year because of a torn labrum. In the NFL, outrageous and uncanny things happen every week.

Sanchez commands an offense averaging 29.3 ppg and the Carolina Panthers’ defense is reeling. They have allowed over 30 ppg since Week 3. Ron Rivera’s group is trending downward. They are using a home loss to New Orleans as an opportunity to bounce back now at 3-5 with sights on the NFC South. The Panthers benefitted from extra days off with promising news regarding health to members of an offensive line ravaged by injury. Newton was under duress all game versus the Saints, but he’ll likely get three of his starters back for this ballgame.

The Panthers won their last meeting with the Eagles 30-22 back in 2012. Newton threw for 306 yards, two touchdowns, and ran for two more. He has tossed at least one pick in his past five games. He’ll try and repeat success he had in Philadelphia two years ago on Monday night.

Trap game: I could have picked Pittsburgh (-4.5) or Denver (-11) as overwhelming public road favorites as my traps for Week 10, but I lean instead towards Seattle versus the New York Football Giants. The Giants haven’t resembled much of a successful football team and were mauled at home on Monday night losing to Indianapolis. Their last win came at home in the first week of October when they beat Atlanta 30-20. They have dropped three straight and their season is rapidly getting away from them, if it hasn’t already.

Seattle has been continuously banged up and is fighting rumors of dissention within their own ranks. Pete Carroll insists all is well in the Pacific Northwest, but their 5-3 record is a tad misleading. They have put consecutive wins together after a 28-26 defeat in St. Louis, but needed to recover an onside kick to officially prevail 30-24 over the Raiders. The Seahawks won 23-0 in New York last year, so history is on their side in this matchup.

New York flies in on a short week, but something is awry in this bloated line. All gut instincts point to Seattle to win, but can they win coasting is the question. Carroll is dealing with mounting injuries on both sides of the ball, though hosting the Giants presents an ideal remedy.

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