Nikola Mirotic and The Case of Chicago’s Diminishing Returns

Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

The regular season is an abhorrently stretched out path that allows teams to experiment and tinker with any phase of the game they want to. 82 games is not just about the win-loss record and its barometric postseason fate. But in Chicago, we have Tom Thibodeau playing Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol 58 minutes per game and running a style that’s beginning to have some believe it was never really about the personnel. 

The San Antonio Spurs rest guys to keep them fresh, but also to run bench players through the system that annihilated the Miami Heat and propped up one of the most efficient, gorgeous offenses of all time — in the Finals, no less. It took those Miami Heat and Erik Spoelstra nearly two years to figure out a defensive and offensive style that would fit their personnel. Quin Snyder isn’t worried so much about results in Utah than acclimating their talented young players to a more comfortable passing scheme. Brad Stevens, known as a defensive coach, has seamlessly blended hustle, energy and analytics into a surprisingly fun Boston Celtics team.

Meanwhile, Nikola Mirotic appears to be the victim in the Chicago Bulls’ style of underdevelopment, which is concerning. Against the likes of Philadelphia, Boston, and Detroit (the Eastern Conference, everyone!) Mirotic has played a total of 17 minutes. Forget that the Bulls somehow found a way to lose one of those games, the schedule-makers are practically begging the Chicago coaching staff to ease up on the starters and to implement some of its talented bench into bigger roles.

Is it going to take an injury for all this to happen? When taking into account Gasol’s mileage and Joakim Noah’s perpetually brittle nature, it serves as an even larger incentive for rest/rehab/whatever is necessary so 35 minutes (Gasol’s minutes against a hapless Detroit team on Monday night) is not.

As for Mirotic’s fit on the team, he’s functioning solely as a spot-up shooter on offense, like Kevin Love is now in Cleveland, and a mediocre to below-average defender and even worse rebounder on defense. He’s not been great overall but not overwhelmingly horrible, either, especially when considered that minutes at the end of quarters and halves are the only crumbs he’s stuck with. Mirotic is out of control on forays into the painted area, tends to stand around on offense, and pump fakes like his life depends on it. But he’s also lethal when functioning strictly as a stretch four-five. Part of that is possible because defenders do not necessarily know who he is yet and play about three steps away off the ball.

Mirotic possesses a quick first step for a big man, which allows him to blow by opposing centers, and is extremely effective as a ball-handler. The quick shots, frantic drives, and cluelessness on offense are extrapolated to a larger extent when he doesn’t receive the reps in live games. The Bulls rank fifth in overall offense while near the bottom on defense, so that’s partially a reason why Thibs doesn’t want to redundantly play one of his bench guys. What’s not redundant, though, is his skillset. There’s only one more effective shooter on the team and that’s one of the greatest college shooters of all time in Doug McDermott.

On defense is perhaps where Thibs is having the most trouble fitting in the big Spaniard. He doesn’t rebound well and has yet to move well enough on that end to even adequately duplicate what Noah and Taj Gibson are able to accomplish in pick-and-roll coverages. But the argument dies a bit when we take into account the minutes Gasol is absorbing and stand back to think about the long 82-game season that teams have to endure.

With Gasol, Mirotic, Noah, and Gibson, there were bound to be minutes issues, especially with only 96 minutes cut between four guys. Even though it’s worked out that Noah has missed time, Gasol needs his rest, Thibs has not shown the slightest indication that Mirotic will garner minutes.

The Chicago Bulls coach and play every single preseason, regular season, and postseason game like it’s Game 7 of the NBA Finals. While it’s good in the immediate theoretical sense, it’s a sad case of diminishing returns that can hamper the team’s Finals chances in the long run. Mirotic isn’t even closed to a finished NBA product; it’s just too bad we have no idea how close he is when the Bulls are fighting tooth and nail in mid-November.

The Bulls might need Mirotic when the games really matter. Hopefully he’ll be allowed to grow into that player sooner rather than later.