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NFL Picks: Lions, Chargers, and Broncos Oh My In Week 11

By Matthew Lottice

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What are the three best values against the spread for Week 11 in the NFL?

Week 11 doesn’t highlight too many noteworthy matchups, but a satisfactory number exist that are possibly worth betting on. I may just observe and enjoy New England-Indianapolis and Philadelphia-Green Bay. Those are two highly anticipated battles this week, but there are other contests on the docket that provide some wagering value. Good luck to all this week!

Detroit +2: Detroit won (and covered) thanks to Matthew Stafford’s brilliant arm in the closing minutes. His touchdown pass edged Miami 20-16 and Detroit moved to 7-2 in Calvin Johnson’s return. Now with another game under their belt together, Stafford has Johnson and Reggie Bush at his disposal offensively. Additionally, Detroit features a defense which allows the fewest total yards (283.4 ypg) and points (15.8 ppg).

Oct 19, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Golden Tate (15) during the game against the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field. Detroit won 24-23. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 19, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Golden Tate (15) during the game against the New Orleans Saints at Ford Field. Detroit won 24-23. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /

Arizona trailed to a stingy Jeff Fisher Rams squad, but they pulled away late for a 31-14 final. Austin Davis’ two late turnovers botched St. Louis’ chances to recapture a fourth quarter lead. Carson Palmer went down for the season tearing his ACL on a dropback, but Drew Stanton used prior experience to come in and throw a go-ahead touchdown to John Brown. The 8-1 NFC West leaders suffered a dreadful loss with Palmer going down, but they have lessened the burden with a team effort. Arizona gets another home game and potentially has to lean even harder on a defense allowing the fourth lowest points at 18.9 ppg.

There’s an old adage defense travels. Indeed it does albeit having to face a hometown or call or two. It’s an inequitable fact Detroit comes into this game brimming with confidence. The Cardinals beat a downtrodden team last week and now face the unknown with Drew Stanton starting for an entire game. The Lions are getting two, but have a great chance to win it straight up.

San Diego -10.5: The Chargers have gone a month without prevailing and their 5-1 early start feels like eons ago. It has to for Phillip Rivers and coach Mike McCoy, who felt they could do no wrong. After a 37-0 thrashing in Miami, a bye week came serendipitously. Numerous first-string guys have recovered, including running back Ryan Mathews.

Tony Sparano is doing what he can to inspire an 0-9 Raiders group. Two weeks in a row they have solidified a spot for NFL Films bloopers. Matt Schaub threw an interception on a fake field goal pass in Cleveland. Derek Carr shoveled an illegal forward pass to an offensive lineman who did his best Marcus Allen before fumbling and essentially giving Denver another easy touchdown in a 41-17 romp. Now the NFL’s worst offense will try and play the Chargers tough in San Diego getting double-digits, which is a gargantuan number of points typically in the NFL.

Oct 12, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers running back Branden Oliver (43) rushes for a gain against the Oakland Raiders during the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The San Diego Chargers defeated the Oakland Raiders 31-28. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 12, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers running back Branden Oliver (43) rushes for a gain against the Oakland Raiders during the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The San Diego Chargers defeated the Oakland Raiders 31-28. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /

San Diego needs a win at 5-4 to keep playoff aspirations within their grasp. They needed a comeback to win in Oakland 31-28 back in October. It was a Pyrrhic victory as they proceeded to lose three in a row along with several key players on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are winless and the Chargers can’t abate their desire for a win because of that factoid.

Trap Game: Denver visits the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis as 10-point favorites. It’s the first time Peyton Manning has visited this particular dome in five years when he was a Colt. Now he brings a superfluous offense that has scored at least 20 points in 30 consecutive games. That beats a 28-game mark set by Kurt Warner and the Rams of 1999-2000.

Austin Davis has been substituted by veteran Shaun Hill for this week’s tilt. Hill presents a quarterback who may limit mistakes and assume better control at the helm. Hill did begin the season as Jeff Fisher’s starter until a thigh injury led to his exit. Now he returns in a game versus a 7-2 Broncos machine.

There are mismatches and inopportune circumstances across the board for a sullen Rams team playing out the remainder of an unfortunate season again. They aren’t pushovers at home and did beat Seattle a couple weeks ago. Denver is accomplishing offensive feats with a minimal running game. C.J. Anderson is toting handoffs in place of injured Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball. This is advertised like a pick-your-number type of game, but it’s never that easy. Denver has to fly East and while they may pull away late, Fisher won’t let his team produce less resistance than Oakland from an effort standpoint.

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