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College Football Playoff: SEC’s Stranglehold Slipping

By Mike Ferguson

Oct 18, 2014; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Amari Cooper (9) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 18, 2014; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Amari Cooper (9) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports /
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It’s no secret that over the last decade, the Southeastern Conference has been the unquestioned king of college football. Prior to last season’s thrilling 34-31 victory by Florida State over Auburn, the SEC had won seven straight BCS titles and more total than every other conference combined with nine.

Early on, it looked to be a certainly that college football’s new 4-team playoff would bode well for the SEC. At one point, the conference manned three of the top four spots in the College Football Playoff Rankings, but that stranglehold is slipping.

With still three weeks of football, things could wind up pretty good for the SEC. Then again, they may not.

The new playoff rankings is set to be released Tuesday night and most believe that it will align with the human polls as far as the top 4 is concerned.

Alabama will certainly be in following an impressive 25-20 win over top-ranked and previously undefeated Mississippi State. Florida State and Oregon aren’t likely to go anywhere leaving TCU and Mississippi State the top two contenders for the final spot.

The Bulldogs are likely to get the nod thanks to the SEC’s stature, but it isn’t hard to make the argument that TCU or even Baylor currently hold the stronger overall resume’ which was the selection committee’s reasoning for allowing Oregon to jump unbeaten Florida State last week.

Mississippi State took the college football world by storm earlier this season winning three straight games over top 10 opponents: LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn.

Those signature wins have slowly deteriorated into pretty good wins, but at this point, Mississippi State owns just one win over a team currently ranked in the AP Poll and that’s a 38-23 victory over an Auburn team that could have four losses by the time all is said and done.

Texas A&M and LSU each have lost on three other occasions since falling to Mississippi State in the middle of the season. The Aggies were thrashed 59-0 by Alabama and had to hold on just to top Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 while LSU just became Arkansas’ first SEC casualty in 18 games this past Saturday.

TCU did itself no favors this week by carrying Kansas for four quarters, but Oregon struggled with a Washington State team that’s currently just 3-7 and Mississippi State was tested by UAB early in the year. Overall, the Horned Frogs look pretty good.

TCU has wins over two currently ranked opponents, but its 30-7 drubbing of a Minnesota team that controls its own destiny in the Big Ten’s West division could wind up being the best non-conference win of any playoff contender.

TCU’s lone loss was to Baylor, who also has two wins over current ranked teams. The Bears join Alabama as the only 1-loss team to have currently handed another team its only loss — if that makes sense.

Baylor leads the nation in scoring and could finish the season with three victories over ranked opponents. The Bears will conclude the year against Kansas State which will allow them to make a major statement while other teams are playing conference championship games.

Baylor Bears quarterback Bryce Petty (14) passes during the first half against the Buffalo Bulls at University of Buffalo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Baylor Bears quarterback Bryce Petty (14) passes during the first half against the Buffalo Bulls at University of Buffalo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports /

The question that many have been asking and quite honestly, the scenario fans of non-SEC schools have been hoping for, is whether or not a 2-loss SEC team could be part of the first college football playoff. That answer right now is looking like a no.

As good as the SEC has been in recent years, it’s hard to imagine even a 2-loss Alabama team jumping an undefeated Florida State or a 1-loss TCU, Baylor or Oregon. With the Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl each taking place the final week of the season, it’s possible that every SEC team could have at least two losses even before division champions make the trip to Atlanta.

Where things would really get interesting would be in the case of a 2-loss SEC champion and a 1-loss Florida State or Ohio State.

Florida State doesn’t currently own a victory over a top 25 team. The Seminoles have been tagged with the overrated label for their number of cardiac finishes. FSU has rallied from halftime deficits for wins in five of its last eight games and plays in an ACC that is even more maligned than usual.

Florida State however, has a championship experience that so few teams do. Under Jimbo Fisher, Florida State also holds a 5-1 record against the SEC.

It would be hard for any loss that Florida State took from here on out to be seen as respectable, but Ohio State’s blemish is one that’s hard to ignore. The Buckeyes have won eight straight, but a 35-21 home loss to a Virginia Tech team that is currently 2-4 in ACC play is hard to forget.

Ohio State was stellar in its 49-37 victory in East Lansing and will get a chance to make some more noise perhaps against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but would two quality wins be enough to erase the loss to the Hokies in Columbus and leapfrog Ohio State over the king of the vaunted SEC? That’s something few could say yes to with any significant amount of confidence.

With still three weeks of football remaining before the four teams are selected for the first-ever playoff, there are dozens of potential scenarios that could still play out. Of the playoff contenders however, the two 1-loss teams from the SEC look to have the toughest road ahead, making what seemed unimaginable just weeks ago now a reality — a SEC-free playoff.

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