On Monday, Miami Marlins star-slugger Giancarlo Stanton agreed to a 13-year, $325 million contract to stay in South Beach. But in an era where long-term contracts have hurt more teams than helped them, is Stanton worth the cost of a franchise?
There’s no question that Miami Marlins right-fielder Giancarlo Stanton is the face of the Miami franchise. Period.
(In other news, don’t you wish your job offered you over $300 million with job security for the next decade or so?)
On Wednesday, the Marlins and Stanton will officially announce his record 13-year, $325 million deal that will keep him in Miami for what seems to be the rest of his career. Not surprising for the guy who has been rated the best player in the Marlins system since 2007.
The star-slugger has done nothing but shine for the Marlins since coming up in 2010 (when he was formerly known as Mike Stanton) including hitting .288 with 37 home runs and 105 RBI, all career-highs. In his first five-years, he’s already hit 154 home runs all by the age of 25, hitting 30 or more home runs in three of his first five years in the bigs. Should he continue to hit 30 or more home runs throughout the length of his contract, he could end up with at least 544 home runs, putting him 16th in the all-time home runs list, just four shy of tying Mike Schmidt for 15th all-time (548) by the time he’s 35. After five years in Miami, Stanton has hit .271/.364/.540 with 154 home runs and 399 RBI and has recorded a career 21.2 WAR rating.
Okay, let’s not worry about all of that just yet.
First and foremost, if it’s anything we’ve learned about the Marlins ownership group led by Jeffrey Loria, it’s that they’re not afraid to shamelessly spend money. Remember when they spent $191 million to bring in free agents Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell? Remember that 93-loss season that sent Reyes, Buehrle and Josh Jonson to Toronto in a huge 12-player trade that collapsed the Marlins payroll from $107 million to just $24 million? Also remember the ridiculous new stadium that Marlins ownership convinced the people of South Florida to build in Miami? Anyone even know what that thing in center field is or how they found a way to put a long fish tank behind home plate?
Given Loria’s history of spending, Stanton’s $300 million-plus new deal is not surprising, it’s risky and, somewhat, dumb.
Some megadeals have worked out in the recent past – Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera – while others, (ahem, Alex Rodriguez) have not. But while Stanton is just 25-years-old at the start of his new contract, the Marlins have to hope that his skill set doesn’t deteriorate as much as time goes on, especially after he turns 30.
Where the Marlins do win in the contract is in the now, thanks to a back-loaded contract.
More on Stanton deal: Highest salary will be $32M, matching Miguel Cabrera’s top salary in his deal and lower than Trout’s top of $33.25M.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 18, 2014
According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, Stanton will earn just $6.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016 and $14.5 in 2017. Sources said that he contract was structured in a way to give the Marlins financial flexibility to build a winning team around Stanton now, in the early years of the deal.
CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman reports that after Stanton earns the first $30 million over the first three years of the contract, he will take home annual values of $25 million (2018), $26 million (2019-20), $29 million (2021-22), $32 million (2023-25), $29 million (2026) and $25 million (2027). The deal also includes a $25 million option for 2028 that comes with a $10 million buyout to make up the remainder of the guaranteed value of the contract.
Stanton is also allowed to opt-out after the sixth year of the deal, by then he would have earned $107 million and would be walking away from $218 million of the following seven years.
Not too bad for a guy whose season ended with a fastball to the face. Both sides were smart here. Stanton took the money when it immediately became available, while the Marlins found a way to not spend so much money off the bat (pun intended).
Next year won’t be the year to watch and see if Stanton’s deal really pays off for the Marlins, since he has some possible winning talent around him in Jose Fernandez Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, with the team looking at first-baseman Adam LaRoche and starting pitcher James Shields in free-agency, amongst other top-tier free agents. Wait until 2017, 2018, when Stanton is possibly forced to become a one-man band for the franchise, and whether or not he’ll be looking to opt-out in 2021.
If the Marlins can swim their way into the playoffs within the first three years of the Stanton deal, it could very well be money well spent.
Remember going forward that this is the Marlins. The same team that can spend hundreds of millions on a few free agents only to trade them a year after, and the same team that will somehow win a World Series (they’ve won two for those who forgot) and then have a fire sale the year after.
Can the Marlins win around Stanton? Now that they’ve locked him up, they have 325 million reasons to do so.
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