NBA: Breaking Down Western Conference Tiers
By Eric Saar
I will be creating some tiers of the teams in the NBA’s Western Conference, projecting where they will be when the playoffs come around.
The NBA regular season has been in full swing for a few weeks and most teams have played around ten or eleven games. While we are still in a small sample size, the NBA picture is starting to clear up. We are seeing a glimpse of what certain teams will look like come April, which will be contenders and which will be on summer vacation early. The West is somehow going to be more brutal this season than it was last year, if you can believe it.
After I create some tiers with all the teams out West with some information on each team, I’ll predict what the Western Conference will look like when the playoffs begin. Cellar-dwellers are those who already don’t have much hope of making the playoffs. Playoff contenders are those teams who will have enough wins to either sniff the postseason or get in, but don’t really have a great chance at advancing deep into the playoffs. Playoff contenders are playing at a high level and in such a way it is sustainable. they will be around in the latter stages of the playoffs.
Cellar-dwellers
Los Angeles Lakers (2-9)
It’s really bad for the Lakers. They are giving up a league-worst 112.1 points per game and continue to be riddled by injuries. Even when everyone is healthy, they won’t be favored in any game, unless they are playing the 76ers or the Nuggets.
It’s not really Kobe’s fault. Every team has ups and downs. Franchises with good management and luck have less frequent and severe lows, but they are inevitable. The Lakers have been so fortunate to be so good for so long, Laker fans have been convinced that every star wants to play there and a bad team in purple and gold isn’t possible.
While they may not wind up as the worst team in basketball (that award will go to the 76ers) the top-5 protected draft pick owed to Phoenix is in serious jeopardy of staying in LA.
Minnesota Timberwolves (2-7)
The Timberwolves are rebuilding again. With Kevin Love traded to Cleveland, number one pick Andrew Wiggins is a good player to build around. With Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and some decent role players, Minnesota will be competitive in a bunch of games, even winning several.
Denver Nuggets (3-7)
The Nuggets are also not good. They are deep and talented enough that they’ll win some games in the middle of the season, when teams are tired and underestimate Denver. For instance, they just beat LeBron and the Cavs last night, but you don’t expect that to continue.
They were injured last year and that was a reason for their mediocrity. There is no such excuse this year.
Utah Jazz (4-7)
The Jazz are really young. They already have some signature wins, but their inexperience will cause them to lose a bunch of games.
They have some players like Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, and Alec Burks who can light it up on any night, ruining a “better” team’s night.
Playoff contenders
Phoenix Suns (6-5)
Right now the Suns are still trying to find that magic they had last season. They’re getting there. They’ve had some impressive wins (San Antonio and Golden State) as well as some disappointing losses (Utah and Charlotte).
Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas are still working out how to play together, but the Morris twins and Alex Len have been bright spots so far. They could be higher up the rankings in a few months.
Los Angeles Clippers (5-4)
Coming into the season, the Clippers seemed like championship contenders. So far that seems unlikely. Blake Griffin has improved, but they already have four losses. And they aren’t good losses. Monday night they lost to a Bulls team without Derrick Rose or Pau Gasol. They also lost to a still-depleted Spurs team, got trounced by the Warriors and lost to Sacramento, who has been playing well.
They’ll probably move up the rankings once they get things in order, but they certainly don’t appear to be contenders at this point.
New Orleans Pelicans (6-4)
Anthony Davis is playing at an MVP level, yet the rest of the team isn’t, causing a 5-4 record thus far. What happens if he hits a bad stretch? They lose every game in sight until he snaps out of it.
Sacramento Kings (6-5)
The Kings just seem on a magical ride. They already have six wins against good competition. DeMarcus Cousins is demonstrating maturity on the court and is playing quite well.
They will probably end up as a near .500 team, which doesn’t have them in the playoffs, but is a marked improvement on the recent past in Sacramento.
They have their cornerstone, and some pieces. Ryan Anderson is awesome, as well as Jrue Holiday, but Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are overrated and the rest of the roster is pretty mediocre. They still have some work to do before they can make a playoff push.
Dallas Mavericks (8-3)
The Mavs have the best offense to this point and not a great defense. What happens when the defense regresses? They need something to fall back on. Keeping Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis and with the additions of Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons this team seems destined for a deep playoff run, but we shall see.
Championship Contenders
San Antonio Spurs (6-4)
While they are still getting to full strength, I certainly didn’t think the defending champions would have four losses this early in the season. They already lost to Phoenix, Sacramento, Houston and New Orleans. Keeping in mind it’s Popovich, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, they’ll probably be fine. It definitely seems they aren’t the robotic basketball machine of death they have been in the past.
Oklahoma City Thunder (3-9)
The Thunder are not playing great, but that’s to be expected with their two superstar players down with injury. Once Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook come back, along with the injured role players, they’ll jet up the rankings.
However, they have less of a margin for error. They’ll probably just barely get home court advantage, maybe a ceiling of the fourth-seed. Boy… Durant and Westbrook can’t get back fast enough.
Portland Trail Blazers (8-3)
This team seems legit. They have their stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. That’s the first step. They have a decent to above average rest of their starting lineup with Robin Lopez, Wesley Mathews and Nicholas Batum. That’s the next step. And now their bench is coming around.
They are finally where they want to be and now just have to get consistent and clutch for the playoffs.
Golden State Warriors (8-2)
The Warriors are good. They’ve only lost to Phoenix and San Antonio in consecutive games. Other than that they haven’t lost. Their offense is elite and their defense is sometimes there.
They need to stay healthy, but they certainly are going to be an elite team in the West for a while.
Houston Rockets (9-2)
The Rockets are an elite team. With James Harden and Dwight Howard both playing at a high level, they just don’t seem to be able to lose much. They had a scare last week against the 76ers though.
They are playing pretty well, but there could be some regression involved down the line, which could bump them a few spots. However, there talent will keep them in the playoffs for sure.
Memphis Grizzlies (10-1)
This Grizzlies team is really good. Their single loss was to Milwaukee…by one point…on the second night of the brutal road back to back. They really should be undefeated. Unless you’re talking about their narrow (and controversial) win over the Kings at the buzzer.
They have the defense to stay elite even when their offense isn’t running at full speed. They are going to go deep in the playoffs.
Overall
That’s how the teams in the Western Conference stand right now, but this year the Western Conference is tougher than last year, if that’s possible. What that means is that it will take less wins to get into the playoffs, but there will be more teams vying for spots. It’s going to be a bloodbath. That’s why every game, especially in conference, is so important.
That’s just my guess, but let me know what you think on Twitter @Eric_Saar. We’ll do the Eastern Conference on Friday.
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