NFL Salary Cap: Cap Trouble Looming for 2015 San Francisco 49ers
By Keith Myers
The San Francisco 49ers are already over the 2015 salary cap before they even begin to re-sign their own free agents or work to improve their team. They face some very difficult decisions in this offseason as they work to solve their salary-cap troubles.
The San Francisco 49ers have been one the NFL’s best teams in recent years, with three-straight trips to the NFC Championship Game. They have struggled a bit this season as they’ve dealt with numerous injuries, but they are still in contention for a playoff spot. Unfortunately, Salary-cap trouble could end the 49ers’ reign next season.
The Situation
The 49ers currently have 51 players under contract for the 2015 season. The salaries of those players, plus the dead money left on the 2015 salary cap from players no longer on the roster, add up to just over $150 million.
Current Salaries: $150 mil Cap Rollover: $4 mil Rookie Pool: $2 mil Kaepernick rebate: $2 mil Estimated Cap: $146 mil 2015 Cap Space: $0
The 2014 salary cap is $133 million. That was a big jump up from 2013, as the revenue from the new TV deals begin to phase in. That will continue this next year, resulting in another big jump in the salary cap. The flat-cap era is clearly over.
The 2015 salary cap is estimated to be between $142 and $148 million. Given the terms of the Tv contracts, it is probably better to estimate on the high side of that range. My calculations suggest that $146 million is the sweet spot where the cap number will likely land for next season.
The 49ers will also roll over just over $4 million in unused cap space from this season. That will help them greatly, since it’ll push their adjusted cap space up to $150 million.
Unless the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl this season, the 49ers will get an additional $2 million discounted from their salary total as well. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has some odd clauses in his contract, one of which will decreases his salary if the team fails to make it to the Super Bowl, unless he’s named an all-pro, which certainly isn’t going to happen this year.
Put all of those pieces together, and the 49ers will enter the offseason with about $2 million in salary cap space. That’s just enough to sign their draft picks, and nothing else.
During the offseason, only the top 51 salaries count against the salary cap. (This isn’t true during the regular season, when all 53 rostered players plus all players on reserve lists and the practice squad all count against the cap.) This means that as long as the 49ers sign players to contracts at or near the league’s minimum salary, the new players wont increase the 49ers cap-spending.
This will allow them to fill their 90-man roster in the offseason, but players signing those types of contracts aren’t typically going to be able to replace the production of starters and key backups who leave via free agency.
The Problem
Unfortunately, the players on the roster for 2015 that make up that $150 million aren’t enough players to make up a competitive NFL team. In fact, many important pieces of San Francisco’s current team are not included.
Running back Frank Gore, wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd, cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox, and guard Mike Lupati are all free agents after this season. That means that they are not counted among the players whose salaries add up to the $150 million total. That’s five starters and a key role player on this year’s team who would all be gone next season.
There are also 21 other players on the current roster that are set to become free agents, including those on the practice squad. That makes 27 of 78 players, which is over 34 percent of the all the players currently with the team that are not yet included on the current salary spending for 2015. (This includes all players on the practice squad, injured reserve, and all other reserve lists.)
With no available cap room, the 49ers will be forced to fill the rest of their roster with players making the league minimum. That is a lot of undrafted free agents and journeyman backups to put on one roster. For a team that has had arguably the league’s best depth over the last few seasons, that would constitute a massive drop-off in overall roster talent.
The 49ers are in for some serious salary-cap-related decline if they cannot find a way to clear up some cap-space.
The Way Out
The only two ways out of a salary-cap mess like this one. The first is to cut high-priced veteran players and replace them with cheaper alternatives. The second is a short-term solution where the team pushes the problem into future years by restructuring current contracts. Both of these require the right type of contracts on the books in order to make them work.
For a player to be cut outright and make a significant difference in helping the team’s salary cap situation, they must a relatively large salary compared to the dead money created by cutting them. It should also be noted that any player cut will have to be replaced on the roster. Cutting an existing player and the signing a new player for a similarly sized contract doesn’t provide any cap relief.
The 49ers have a number of players who fit that description, but a few are key players that the team cannot afford to lose.
| Player | Pos | Dead Money | Cap Number |
| Aldon Smith | OLB | – | $9,754,000 |
| Ahmad Brooks | OLB | $3,000,000 | $9,648,750 |
| Patrick Willis | ILB | $843,500 | $8,736,750 |
| Vernon Davis | TE | $2,067,920 | $7,017,918 |
| Justin Smith | DE | $2,186,667 | $6,436,667 |
| Stevie Johnson | WR | – | $6,025,000 |
| Phil Dawson | K | $1,500,000 | $4,134,000 |
| Alex Boone | G | $340,000 | $3,790,000 |
| Andy Lee | P | $1,000,000 | $2,550,000 |
| Craig Dahl | S | $233,334 | $1,933,334 |
| Ian Williams | DT | $333,334 | $1,583,334 |
| Jonathan Martin | RT | – | $1,042,400 |
Brooks, Willis, Davis, and Justin Smith are highly unlikely to be going anywhere. Cutting Aldon Smith could solve much of the team’s cap problems, but it is tough to believe that the team won’t bring him back unless he get into trouble off the field again. That greatly narrows the available options.
Alex Boone could be an interesting case. He actually held out during training camp trying to get a new contract and the team refused to budge. If the team feels that Mike Lupati is more important on the offensive line, they could cut Boone to create the salary cap room needed to sign Lupati. That doesn’t solve the cap situation in any way, but it is still a situation worth watching.
Ultimately, it looks like both Stevie Johnson and Jonathan Martin might be the two unfortunate players who get the axe. Cutting both could save over $7 million against the cap, and generate no dead money in the process.
Of course, that isn’t the only possible solution that can be used here. The other option involves restructuring existing contracts to lower their 2015 cap numbers. This is a bit of a double-edged sword though. While restructuring can lower a player’s cap number in one year, it increased their cap number for each remaining year of the contract.
Restructuring a deal also generates more dead money potential in the contract. This makes it more difficult for a player to be cut later, and can greatly decrease a team’s flexibility to fit players under the salary cap in future years.
Players that have the potential to restructure their deals and make a significant impact on the salary cap situation must have three key components:
- A large base salary that can be converted into bonus money.
- At least two years remaining on their contract, though three or more is preferable.
- Player must be in the team’s long-term plans beyond 2016 season.
A look over San Francisco’s current 2015 roster show’s these possible candidates:
| Player | 2015 Salary | Years |
| Colin Kaepernick | $12,400,000 | 4 |
| Ahmad Brooks | $6,000,000 | 3 |
| Patrick Willis | $7,065,000 | 3 |
| Navorro Bowman | $4,700,000 | 4 |
| Anquan Boldin | $5,500,000 | 4 |
| Joe Staley | $4,500,000 | 4 |
| Ray McDonald | $4,100,000 | 4 |
Staley and Boldin are both older players, so their inclusion here is debatable. Ray McDonald’s problems off the field (though he appears to be done with all current issues) could lead the 49ers away from wanting to increase the dead money in his deal.
Colin Kaepernick’s contract was structured in a way that suggests that the 49ers aren’t sold on him being the long-term solution at quarterback. His development has stalled this season, so it is likely that the 49ers aren’t going to want to change his contract in a way that makes it less team friendly in the future.
That leaves only three players as candidates to restructure their deals who can make a significant impact on the 2015 salary cap. This will be a tempting solution for the 49er’s front office, but it will only push the cap problem out into the 2016 season and beyond.
Putting It All Together
This offseason will be very important for the 49ers. They must find a way to get their salary cap under control without eliminating too much of the talent that had made them one of the NFL’s most dominant teams over the past few years.
San Francisco’s championship window has closed slightly. They’re not as deep as they once were, and their decreased depth is starting to show up on the scoreboard each week. Going forward, it is tough to see a scenario where their depth doesn’t take another hit in this coming offseason.
What the 49ers have to do is to find a way to reload with younger, cheaper players this offseason while they find a way through this salary cap mess. If they do the easy way out and just push the problem out into future years, then they’ll likely begin a long slow decline into mediocrity.
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