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NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Lions, Texans and a Trap

By Matthew Lottice

Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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What are your best and worst bets for Week 12 in the NFL?

Week 12 on the NFL calendar is here. Lines are tighter and the unpredictability of football outcomes increases as many teams continue to cling onto postseason hopes. It is around this point that I don’t endorse emptying out your entire net worth on a game. I’d prefer to sprinkle less amounts on numerous games for action, but not to the extent of potentially entering virtual penury.

Tail, fade, flip a coin, or ride your own hot streak! Good luck to all!

Detroit +7: Tom Brady and New England are a touchdown favorite at home versus Detroit. Brady has eschewed heavy criticism that suggested his NFL days were numbered. New England has picked things up, winning six games in a row. Add in a vaunted defensive unit and Bill Belichick’s crew isn’t a team many want to current face. Public and oddsmakers confidence has risen with each passing week.

Nov 9, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) celebrates his touchdown during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 9, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) celebrates his touchdown during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /

The Patriots fungible offense has implemented a wide range of playmakers for years. Running back Jonas Gray is replicating what Brandon Bolden accomplished for new England just two years ago. Gray carried the ball 37 times on Sunday for 201 yards and our touchdowns. Not bad for an undrafted free agent from Notre Dame.

Jim Caldwell’s Lions failed to score a touchdown in Arizona and lost 14-6. Now they play another road game against a Patriots team who has gone 5-0 at home this season. It’s seemingly difficult to back a floundering Lions’ offense, but I think receiving a touchdown (7.5 points at some places) is worth taking a flyer on.

Houston -1.5: Ryan Fitzpatrick’s days as a NFL starter may officially be over. His run was definitely longer than anticipated, but Ryan Mallett assumed the mantle for a 4-5 Texans squad. Mallett was acquired in a trade from New England. The lanky, 6′ 7″ drop-back gunslinger knew coach Bill O’Brien in 2011 before O’Brien departed to coach up Penn State. It appears this duo works in mutual concert, as Mallett flourished in his first career NFL starts last week at Cleveland.

His first TD pass came on a fade to physical freak J.J. Watt and it was one of two in the 23-7 victory. The Arkansas-born and Texas high school native will make his first home start preparing for the Cincinnati Bengals. He’ll be supported by Arian Foster’s return to the backfield.

Nov 16, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) waves to fans after beating the Cleveland Browns 23-7 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Schwane-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 16, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) waves to fans after beating the Cleveland Browns 23-7 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Schwane-USA TODAY Sports /

Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard are quietly developing into a productive duo and will be needed on the road. Andy Dalton hasn’t exactly played well versus Houston in the past. Cincinnati performed well in a 27-10 road win over New Orleans moving them to 6-3. Gameplans could be similar for both teams. Each may provoke the quarterbacks to make winning plays instead of cowering behind a running game.

Trap Game: San Francisco -9: This line opened at eight and has ticked upwards for a variety of explanations. The 49ers have won two road games and corrected a major lull to be at 6-4. The 3-7 Redskins have unraveled and head coach Jay Gruden’s qualifications are coming under scrutiny. Robert Griffin III evidently doesn’t get along with many of his coaches, as it’s been illustrated in his dealings with Mike Shanahan and now Gruden. Owner Dan Snyder loves Griffin, so perhaps Baylor head coach Art Briles would consider relocating to the nation’s capital.

My hometown Niners may be competing for a playoff spot, but newly constructed Levi’s Stadium hasn’t witnessed many commensurate performances. The 49ers have elevated their play on the road more so than at home. They have a chance to impose their will on a languishing Redskins team coming off an unsightly 27-7 loss against Tampa Bay. The defense has formed the backbone of Jim Harbaugh’s troops. For all their well-known offensive talents, this unit averages 21 points a game and continues to settle for one too many field goals inside the redzone.

San Francisco put a 27-6 stomping on Washington last year on a Monday night. While the Redskins appear to be in a similar form, the Niners have regressed and can’t be expected to blow any opponent away based on their inconsistencies offensively. Washington is an ideal foe because they are internally combusting, but can San Francisco score enough touchdowns instead of field goals to cover a near double-digit number?

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