Milwaukee Bucks: Selling Hope and Promise

In the NBA you are either selling hope or selling wins. The Milwaukee Bucks started this season selling hope to its fans, a hope that seemed seasons in the distance, beyond a hazy horizon, they even said as much with their slogan “Own the Future”. However, the future might be here, sooner than expected, and sooner than its wanted.

The promise of a better tomorrow making today easier to bear was a concept Bucks fans had ample appetite for after a decade plus spent on the NBA’s treadmill of mediocrity; 11 seasons of never winning more than 46 games and never making it out of the first round of the playoffs, a cumulative record of 391-495 (.441). Enough talent to compete in some years, but never enough to truly contend, rarely bad enough to be in a position to get significantly better through the draft, until last season accidentally plunging to an NBA and franchise worst 15-67 debacle.

The fruits of last seasons pain has come in the form of Jabari Parker, the Rookie of the Year favorite and the number two pick in last years draft, who on early returns looks every bit the franchise player the Bucks were hoping for when they drafted him. A natural and versatile scorer who can create his own shot, Parker will be a defenders nightmare for the next decade plus. He joins fellow 19-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo, aka The Greek Freak, he of the freakish athleticism and unlimited potential, at 6’11” with a 7’3″ wingspan after growing two inches over the offseason; to provide twin sources of optimism and unbounded upside for a franchise with new ownership, a new coach, hopes for a new arena and a fresh set of ambitions.

Parker and Antetokounmpo are the centerpieces of the youngest roster in the NBA, and this season was to be the first small, incremental step to a much brighter future for the Bucks. Expectations were for the Bucks to be bad, Vegas projected their Win / Loss record at 24-58, which would likely earn another top pick in what is another loaded draft class. Despite their obvious and overwhelming potential, the Bucks and the city of Milwaukee will never be a premier free agent destination, driving the need to build organically through the draft, ideally giving the Bucks a triumvirate of young top end talent to set the foundation for a decade of contention.

The pre-eminent model for success in today’s NBA incorporates three star players; think the San Antonio Spurs with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli, the Miami Heat had the big three of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh or even the 2007-08 Boston Celtics with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. A 7-6 start in the Eastern Conference would not normally be noteworthy, however just a year after going 15-67 and predicted to win only 24 games, it shows considerable progress, and therein lies the problem; the Bucks might be progressing too fast, their number of ping-pong balls and their chance at a third star in next June’s draft, their chance for a future title, dwindling by the win.

It remains unlikely but not inconceivable that the Bucks make the playoffs. The Eastern Conference has four teams that will, barring catastrophic injuries almost certainly make the playoffs: The Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors and the Washington Wizards, after that it is a genuine crapshoot with up to eight teams vying for those final four spots and remember the Atlanta Hawks backed into the eight-seed last year with a 38-44 record.

Surprisingly, where the Bucks most resemble a playoff team is at the defensive end. A year after ranking dead last in the NBA in Defensive Rating at 111.8 and allowing opponents to shoot and Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG%) of 52.0% the Bucks with all their size and length are currently fourth in Defensive Rating at 100.9 after 12 games, with opponents EFG% of 47.9%. Buoyed by the return to health of rim protector Larry Sanders, the Bucks opponents are only converting 50.6% of attempts at the rim, and with the beleaguered center on the floor Milwaukee is conceding 93.3 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would equate to the second best ever over a full season.

It is the offensive end where the Bucks growing pains are most evident, scoring only 100.9 points per hundred possessions, better than only Detroit, Charlotte, Oklahoma City and Philadelphia. Only two teams in the past five years have made the playoffs with a bottom five Offensive Rating, the 2013-14 Bulls and the 2011-12 Celtics. The Bucks rank 15th in point differential but have played the NBA’s easiest schedule thus far. Their wins coming against the Sixers, Pacers, Grizzlies, Thunder, Heat and Knicks, hardly a murderers row. December will probably tell us how good the a Bucks are with 10 of 15 games on the road and a West coast road trip.

However good the Bucks are right now, one thing is certain, they will only get better as the year progresses, each win reducing the odds of getting that elusive third star. A playoff berth this year, whilst being an enormous achievement for this young group would be an organizational disaster. The Bucks roster is young and loaded with talent however there is a big difference between competing for a playoff spot, particularly in the Eastern Conference and truly contending for an NBA title. If the Bucks are to prise open their championship window in the coming years, management may need to intervene and ensure the Bucks are in the lottery again in June, with a lot of ping-pong balls with their name on it. Competing for the eighth seed in the East was a trademark of the Bucks under the former regime, new ownership needs to think big picture, to play the long game and if that means trading back into the lottery, trading away some of today for the promise of tomorrow, then so be it, the Bucks will be a fun team regardless. There is a reason patience is a virtue.

The Milwaukee Bucks are selling hope, not the hazy, can’t-make-it-out-way-off-in-the-distance kind, but the real, tangible kind, the kind on a nightly basis. The Milwaukee Bucks are selling hope and I’m buying, because hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.

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