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NFL QB Power Rankings: Ranking The Starters For Week 13

By Lyle Graversen

Oct 19, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) reacts to a touchdown in the game against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Dallas beat New York 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 19, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) reacts to a touchdown in the game against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Dallas beat New York 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 23, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. The Packers defeated the Vikings 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 23, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. The Packers defeated the Vikings 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports /

So, as I mentioned in the intro, the score for each QB was calculated by adding together the following elements:

Traditional QB Rating
ESPN’s Total QBR
Pro Football Focus’ QB Grade
Pro Football Focus’ Accuracy Percentage
“Air Yards” Per Completion
Touchdown to Interception Differential
Win to Loss Differential

Here’s how those numbers added up: (Click To Enlarge)

Screen Shot 2014-11-25 at 8.27.44 AM
Screen Shot 2014-11-25 at 8.27.44 AM /

How I devised this system:

I’ve always found it curious that when looking at the traditional QB Ratings, ESPN’s Total QBR, and PFF QB Grades that each system seems to favor different QBs. For each system there are always a few guys that I think “that seems high” or “that seems low”. So I started by adding those three together to see if the result would give me an order that I liked better than any of the three on their own. Overall I was pretty happy with how that list looked, but I started thinking about how I could take what I find to be the most important characteristics of a QB and factor that in as well.

I like the PFF accuracy percentage because it really gives you an idea of how well a QB puts the ball where a receiver can catch it by taking out things like drops, throw aways, hit while throwing, etc. I think it’s a better gauge of how accurate a QB throws the ball than a traditional completion percentage. However, it does favor QBs that make more “safe” throws since QBs that throw a lot of deep passes are bound to have a lower percentage. To counter that I added the air yards per completion component. This number represents how far past the line of scrimmage the average pass hits the receiver by factoring out the yards after catch gained by the receiver.

Finally, I wanted to give credit for the most fundamental things we want a QB to do. That being to throw TDs, not throw interceptions, and most of all find a way to win games. So I added TD to INT differential and win to loss differential. Basically, if a QB throws 20 TDs and has 10 INTs his score is a 10. The same for the QB’s team wins when he starts games. If his team is 7-4 in games he starts his score would be a three. I know some won’t like that I factored wins in at all but I wanted it to be at least a small factor given the importance of winning in the NFL. For most QBs, in a score in the 100s the win portion only made up a few points one way or the other. It acts more as a tie breaker between otherwise equally scoring QBs than a major component of the score.

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. I really tried to come up with something original and accurate. So my question to you is do you think these results are a better reflection of which QBs are having a good season this year compared to other traditional ratings? Fire away!

Thanks for reading.

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