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Why North Carolina Will Win the ACC

By Alex Zietlow

Nov 22, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige (5) talks to his teammate prior to the first half against the Davidson Wildcats at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA Today.
Nov 22, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige (5) talks to his teammate prior to the first half against the Davidson Wildcats at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA Today. /
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College Basketball powerhouse North Carolina will win the ACC

There are some conferences in sports where if you play in them you inherently are better than some other schools from other conferences.  Most of this formidable reputation is based off of legitimate statistics like national championships, in-season rankings, and NFL draft picks.  This is true in SEC Football, for example.

In basketball, there is a bit more parity.  There are a few powerhouse schools in each conference.  Even some mid-major schools are considered a part of the highest level of college basketball.  With this, however, no conference in college basketball can stand next to the ACC when comparing overall legacy and reputation as a basketball conference.  Playing Division I College Basketball is one thing, but playing and being successful in the Atlantic Coast Conference – home to 12 national championships and currently having 4 teams in the AP top ten – proves that you are the real deal.

The four ACC teams in the AP Top 10 are the frontrunners in the quest to top the conference at the conclusion of the regular season.  And while teams like Miami, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech always seem to find themselves in the race to the top come February, there is certainly an elite 4 in the ACC right now who have the clearest shot at putting up a regular season banner.  Those teams are #4 Duke, #5 UNC, #6 Louisville, and #8 Virginia. Each of these four teams have the necessary traits and credentials to win the ACC, but when you analyze who will win when the teams square off head to head, you find that North Carolina poses the toughest matchups for each of these other teams.  The way I see it, despite the national rankings, the ACC is North Carolina’s to lose.

UNC vs. the Field

So far, although it is early in the season, the Heels have found most of their scoring coming from big men Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks.  However, as their schedule gradually gets tougher, expect to see their best player, arguably leading ACC Player of the Year candidate Marcus Paige, become more assertive.

Nov 26, 2014; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; North Carolina Tar Heels players react during the game against the Butler Bulldogs at Atlantis Resort Imperial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2014; Paradise Island, BAHAMAS; North Carolina Tar Heels players react during the game against the Butler Bulldogs at Atlantis Resort Imperial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /

Defensively, they are long, athletic, but most of all, deep.  The Tar Heels play 11-12 players a game, and with this rotation, you tend to see better defense as everyone is trying to earn minutes.  And from their staunch defense, they get many fast break opportunities as the big men throw deep outlet passes.  This team, like previous Tar Heel teams under Roy Williams, turns a few missed shots into quick, huge scoring runs.

North Carolina can defend, score in bunches, is very deep (especially in the frontcourt), and has a go-to player in Marcus Paige when the going gets tough.  So anyone beating this team this year would be a surprise.

I expect North Carolina to beat Louisville because of their depth in the frontcourt and sheer ability to score.  Besides Montrezl Harrell for Louisville, the Cardinals do not have any elite forwards/centers, and Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson would have their way with them, both offensively and defensively.

The Cavaliers have a better frontcourt to match up with the Heels’ with Anthony Gill (averaging 11.8 points and 6 rebounds per game) and Mike Tobey (averaging 9.0 points and 7.8 rebounds per game).  But even so, the Heels should be able to exploit Virginia’s slow paced game-plan.  North Carolina will be able to capitalize quickly and effectively against Virginia’s missed shots.  If North Carolina is able to speed up the tempo to a point where Virginia is uncomfortable, North Carolina should beat the Cavaliers without a hitch.

The question marks arise when the Heels matchup with Duke.  According to fayobserver.com, North Carolina has a 22.8% chance of winning the ACC, and Duke has a 42.4% chance.

So far this year, the Blue Devils have played inside out basketball and have clobbered almost all of their opponents.  This team does not play down to its opponent’s level, which would make it very difficult to stay in the game against this team if North Carolina isn’t hitting shots early.  Where North Carolina does have the advantage is experience in every position.  While Jahlil Okafor may very well be the best big man in Duke Basketball history, he is still relatively unproven and untested.   Almost every player knows what to expect out of this rivalry on the North Carolina team.  I expect the Heels to at least beat the star-studded Blue Devils once if not twice during the regular season.

For North Carolina to win the ACC, Marcus Paige will need to reassert himself as the most valuable player in the ACC, freshmen Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, and Joel Berry II will need to develop into reliable scoring options in support of Meeks, Paige, and Johnson, and above all else, the Heels will have to play fast paced, inside-out, North Carolina basketball.

If all goes according to how the teams are characterized on paper along with how they have played thus far, the Heels will top the toughest basketball conference in the nation come the conclusion of the regular season.

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