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NBA: Separating Championship Contenders From Pretenders

By Clint Pemberton

Sep 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0), forward LeBron James (23) and guard Kyrie Irving (2) pose for a photo during media day at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0), forward LeBron James (23) and guard Kyrie Irving (2) pose for a photo during media day at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /
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We look at the top NBA teams to separate the contenders from the pretenders

If truth is fleeting in the NFL, it is considerably more enduring in the NBA, more ink pen than lead pencil. The NBA is the most predictable of the four major U.S. sports, the sport most dictated by skill compared to luck, high numbers of scores and possessions, none counting for a large percentage of the total score, sees the relative skill advantages accumulate over time particularly in a seven game playoff series. In the NBA we know what we know…and it rarely changes.

In the NBA playoffs the best team rarely loses, teams don’t scrape into the equivalent of the Wildcard and get hot and make a championship run. In the last 40 full seasons in the NBA, 33 winners have been a first or second seed in either conference, six have been a third seed, that’s 39 out 40, the lone outlier the 94-95 defending champion Houston Rockets (sixth).

NBA champs get it done on both sides of the ball. Nine of the previous 10 NBA champions have had both offenses AND defenses ranking inside the top ten in efficiency (points per 100 possessions). The only outlier being the 09-10 Lakers who’s offense was ranked 11th. Defense matters more than offense with the mean rankings for NBA champions of 4.5 for points allowed per 100 possessions and 6.4 for points scored.

We may be only one month into the season, but we know the tried and tested formula for success; balanced teams with good point differentials who are likely to finish with no worse than a three-seed in their conference.

For the sake of this column we have included every team with 30-1 or better NBA Championship odds, and to be labelled a contender we must consider that team to be a genuine championship threat, a legitimate shot to win the NBA title, not just a playoff round or two. Being named a pretender is not necessarily derogatory in this context, it simply means that as presently constituted, teams with this status, whilst being very good, won’t have to concern themselves with organising parade routes in late June.

Championship Odds

* Washington Wizards +3100
* Portland Trail Blazers + 2600
* Dallas Mavericks +2100
* Memphis Grizzlies +2100
* Toronto Raptors +1900
* Oklahoma City Thunder +1500
* Houston Rockets +1300
* Golden State Warriors +1200
* Los Angeles Clippers +1100
* Chicago Bulls +800
* San Antonio Spurs +450
* Cleveland Cavaliers +450

Contenders and Pretenders: Let’s find out who’s who.

Next: Washington Wizards

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