Jon Lester is still the top-free agent pitcher in the market and more teams are starting to arise as candidates for his services in 2015. The question is, whose mound will the southpaw throw off of?
At one point last year, probably during the AL Wild Card, everyone thought that left-handed ace Jon Lester would be one-and-done in Oakland (much like their playoff run) and would find his way back to Boston because no matter what, Jon Lester is a Boston Red Sock through and through.
However as we go through baseball’s offseason and go further into the hot stove, there are several teams that are vying for Lester’s services in their rotation next year and Boston isn’t the only option on Lester’s radar.
We already know that Boston, the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants were all in the hunt for Lester, and as of Wednesday night, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford and Alex Speier reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers are a late entry into the Lester sweepstakes.
(In other news, Boston’s front office gave their official “oh (expletive)” response when the news came out.)
There’s no surprise that teams who need an ace-like starter, especially a left-hander, would be going hard for Lester. He was an overall 16-11 last year between Boston and the A’s, keeping his ERA below 2.50 and pitched over 200 innings for the fourth straight season. Although he pretty much blew the Wild Card game at Kansas City (7.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 5 K, 7.36 ERA) he is still regarded as one of the best postseason pitchers of our time and whomever does sign him is still going to make their case that they are making a run for it all, much like how Oakland did (a story we won’t dive into).
That is where the Dodgers fit in.
Los Angeles’ National League team has three of the game’s top pitchers in Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu and a fairly solid back end of the rotation in Josh Beckett and Dan Haren.
The Dodgers’ starters combined for 71 of the team’s 94 wins in 2014 and while that seems like a solid year, those 71 wins came with Beckett going just 6-6 in 20 starts before missing the rest of the season due to a torn labrum in his hip and Dan Haren finishing with a 13-11 record with a 4.02 ERA. Beckett’s six wins was the least amount of wins in the rotation and Haren’s 4.02 ERA was the highest outdoing Ryu’s 3.38 ERA by nearly a whole run.
Should the Dodgers somehow pull off the deal and bring in Lester, he would be a very solid No. 2 pitcher behind Kershaw and a pitcher who has the ability to be a 20-win starter himself and possibly get the Dodgers past the 100-win mark for the first time since 1974.
Imagine this rotation: Kershaw, Lester, Greinke, Ryu and Haren as the fifth starter.
Now imagine this playoff rotation: Kershaw, Lester, Greinke then Ryu.
The move for Lester isn’t just for a potential Dodgers World Series run, or to help prevent another October pitching collapse, but also for the long term. Greinke can opt out of his six-year, $147 million deal after 2015, a clause that opens conversations with Lester considering the career similarities of both pitchers during the time of their respective free agency. When Greinke signed with L.A. after the 2012 season, he already logged just under 1,500 innings, was 91-78 for his career with a 3.77 ERA and struck out around eight per nine innings. Lester has logged 1,596 innings with a 116-67 record with a 3.58 ERA and averaged 8.2 strikeouts per nine.
Lester’s upper hand among the Dodgers pitchers comes in his postseason success, something that nobody in that rotation, or staff for that matter, has. Lester would head to Hollywood with a pair of World Series rings, three Cy Young Awards and a career 6-4 postseason record with a 2.57 ERA, 3-0 World Series record with a 0.43 ERA. All the Dodgers have to do is get to the Fall Classic and Lester can do the rest.
He is the complete opposite to Kershaw who has struggled in the postseason (1-5, 5.12 ERA).
There’s no question that is the Dodgers are in the mix, they’ll offer the money. The question is, should Lester take the hometown discount and return to Boston, or if he should take the money while it’s available and if we’ve learned anything about these new Dodgers led by the ownership group of Magic Johnson and company, it’s that these Dodgers have given little-to-no regard for the luxury tax. When you have an $8 billion TV deal, you can do that.
Given what the Red Sox mean to Lester and what Lester means to Boston, the money may talk very loud, but sometimes those homely comforts mean a lot more.
So what’s it going to be Jon? Hollywood’s bright lights or Boston and… well, Fenway?
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