Alabama vs Missouri
The Alabama Crimson Tide are back in the SEC Championship Game after a one year hiatus where Nick Saban and his No. 1 team in the nation will take on the Missouri Tigers who won the SEC east for the second straight year after leaving the Big 12 for the SEC three seasons ago. A win by Alabama will secure a berth in the College Football Playoff, but an upset from Missouri will result in chaos and a major shakeup of the playoff rankings, but not likely enough to get in the playoff.
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Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Start time: 4:00 p.m. ET
Location: Atlanta, GA
Stadium: Georgia Dome
TV info: CBS
Live stream: The game can be live streamed here.
Radio: Alabama broadcast here. Missouri broadcast here.
Keys to Victory
Missouri will have to win the turnover battle and take advantage of short fields to have a chance against the No. 11 total defense of the Crimson Tide who are allowing 16.9 points per game, which ranks sixth in the nation. Further, special teams has to be perfect in every phase. The punting game has to tilt the field in favor of the defense so the coverage unit can’t allow any big returns and Missouri will need a big day from Marcus Murphy who has taken back one punt and two kicks back for scores.
Maty Mauk has been up and down this year at quarterback and will need his best performance in the SEC Championship Game so he’ll need Bud Sasser and Jimmie Hunt to be at their best and take advantage of an Alabama pass defense that’s allowed an average of 260.8 yards per game in November.
The pass rushing duo of Shane Ray and Markus Golden has to win their individual matchups and true freshman left tackle Cam Robinson could be in for his toughest test of the year against this par that has 12 and 8.5 sacks, respectively. Missouri leads the SEC with 40 sacks while Alabama has allowed an SEC-low 11 sacks, so it’s strength on strength in this one and the winner of this battle likely wins the game.
Alabama needs to continue to do what they’ve done all season and that’s urn the football with T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry and keep Blake Sims in manageable third downs. Missouri’s defense has been nearly as good as Alabama’s this year, ranking 16th in total defense and 13th in scoring defense, so this likely won’t be the high-scoring affair that Alabama had last week in the Iron Bowl.
That is unless Amari Cooper goes off this week like he’s done much of the season. Cooper is coming off his second 224-yard performance of the year and his second three-touchdown performance in last week’s win against Auburn. Cooper is likely to be a Heisman finalist next week so look for Broyles Award finalist, Lane Kiffin, to set his star receiver up for another monster game.
Betting Odds
Point spread: ALA -14.5
Moneyline: -650
Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction
Missouri was in this position this time a year ago so they won’t be awestruck by the moment and Gary Pinkel is one of the better coaches in the country, but I believe Alabama’s ability to run the football and break the game open with Cooper is a threat that Missouri won’t be able to contain.
Cooper has been the difference-maker in wins over Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida, among others, when their opponent was able to contain the running game. He has simply been unstoppable this year and I don’t think that stops on Saturday in the Georgia Dome.
I like Missouri enough to keep the game close into the third quarter before Alabama pulls away in the second half because they’re a deeper and more talented team with the game’s best head coach. Saban has an 8-1 record in conference and national championship games and I think that extends to 9-1 on Saturday.
Final Score: Alabama: 34, Missouri: 17
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