Find out which teams are on upset alert in Week 14 of NFL action.
After watching DeMarco Murray run all over the Chicago Bears’ defense last night–just like I said he would–you can’t tell me you’re not stoked for the NFL Week 14 slate of games.
Staying on the subject of running backs, they’ll be key this weekend in the three games that I’ve set aside as potential upset matchups.
I have Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch leading their teams to victory, and the inconsistent play of Andre Ellington and the Arizona Cardinals’ running game as a disadvantage vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now that I already spilled the beans, take a look below at my reasoning for these three upset games this weekend.
*All spreads via Yahoo Sports
Miami Dolphins (-3.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Miami Dolphins have been playing some good football of late–highlighted by a near win on the road against the Denver Broncos and a 5-2 record in their last seven games–but the Baltimore Ravens shouldn’t be discounted in this one.
Sure, Baltimore is coming off a loss to the San Diego Chargers last week, but the Ravens own the No. 10 total offense in the league and are a tough road opponent to host.
Miami’s defense is great against the pass but 21st against the rush, to which Baltimore boasts the fifth-best rushing attack in the NFL.
Justin Forsett is taking advantage of the opportunity he’s been given–he’s already over the 1,000-yard mark and has found the end zone seven times–and I think he creates a matchup nightmare for the Dolphins.
The Ravens are 4-1 against the spread vs. the ‘Fins in their last five matchups, so roll with Baltimore on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals (-1.0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I still find myself trying to believe in the Arizona Cardinals, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult, especially when they draw a difficult matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cardinals have had a lot of trouble getting the ground game going with Andre Ellington, which means they’ll be looking to win the game on the arm of Drew Stanton, who is currently leading the league’s No. 13 passing attack.
The issue here is that the Chiefs boast the league’s best pass defense, allowing opposing offenses to throw for an average of just 197 yards through the air per game. On offense, the Chiefs haven’t had much luck finding their wide receivers, but they have been successful hitting the tight ends and connecting with Jamaal Charles.
And while it is reported that Larry Fitzgerald should play this week, things don’t sound as promising for Ellington, which is why I like Kansas City in this Sunday matchup.
The Chiefs are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 road games, and I think they deliver the Cards their first home loss in Week 14.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks
I get that the Philadelphia Eagles have been playing good football–especially on Thanksgiving against the rival Dallas Cowboys–but the Seattle Seahawks are 5-1 in their last six games, and their defense is starting to look like it did during last year’s Super Bowl season.
Yet again, Seattle owns the league’s No. 1 rated defense in terms of total yards allowed, and it ranks third in opponents’ points allowed per game, at just a smidgen over 18. In fact, in their last three games, the ‘Hawks have allowed a total of six points to the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers.
On the offensive side of things, Seattle is No. 1 in the league in rushing yards, thanks in large part to Marshawn Lynch, who ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards (956) to go with a league-high nine rushing TDs.
The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 at home in 2014, but I don’t see that lasting past Sunday’s game with the defending champs.
Lynch and the dynamic play of Russell Wilson will be too much for Philly’s defense.