How will Jon Lester fare in the National League?
The Chicago Cubs continued their strong offseason by signing arguably the most coveted free agent, Jon Lester, to a 6-year deal late Tuesday night. The deal is reportedly for $155 million. The Boston Red Sox were another contender for Lester, but talks fell through. Earlier in the day, the Cubs also signed former Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero.
Lester has been one of the best pitchers of the last few years, and a staple in the Red Sox staff before being traded to the Oakland Athletics at last year’s trade deadline. He has had 15 wins or more in six of the last seven seasons dating back to 2008. 2014 was one of Lester’s best years of his career, as he was in the top ten in the American League in ERA (2.46), WHIP (1.10), strikeouts (220), wins (16), and IP (219.2). The ERA, WHIP, and IP were all career bests.
Lester comes to the Cubs at 30 years old, but still seems to be in his prime. His arm is at full strength, and obviously can still handle a full season. He actually gets better as the season progresses. From 2012-2014, August and September (3.08 and 2.99 ERA respectively) are better than any ERA in another month by at least 0.53 (3.61 in April). Additionally, in that same span, he has had a difference of -0.89 in ERA between day and night games. Obviously, Wrigley Field is well known for its consistent day games.
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The Cubs are similar to the Chicago White Sox in that they are very young and will depend on the production of their prospects and second-year players in 2015. At the end of 2014, they called up Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Arismendy Alcantara to go along with established All-Stars Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro.
Of the other eight teams between the AL West and East, four were in the top ten in the MLB for batting average and home runs and, three were in the top ten for runs and hits in 2014. The NL Central and most of the National League are less offensively inclined:
St. Louis Cardinals: 17th in hits, 24th in runs, 29th in home runs, 14th in batting average
Pittsburgh Pirates: 6th in hits, 10th in runs, 6th in home runs, 5th in batting average
Cincinnati Reds: 29th in hits, 28th in runs, 18th in home runs, 29th in batting average
Milwaukee Brewers: 18th in hits, 15th in runs, 11th in home runs, 17th in batting average
Lester will continue to be one of the best pitchers in the league, if not even better than his time with the Red Sox. I don’t want to be too quick to say that the Cubs are automatic playoff contenders as the Central did send two teams to the playoffs last year. They are certainly better than the Reds, and will be able to compete with the top teams in the division. Expect more of the same from Lester this year in fantasy.
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