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College Football: ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks

By Mike Marteny

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Are you in a pool where you need to pick all of the bowls at once? Or are you playing ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania and can’t wait around for my bowl-by-bowl analysis? This is the piece for you!

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This will be the pared down version of all the bowl games where I just get right to it and pick the winner straight up. I won’t bother with the spreads for this one. However, I will put these in order of confidence for those of you that are playing the confidence version of the game.

Nov 1, 2014; Oxford, MS, USA; Auburn Tigers linebacker Cassanova McKinzy (8) greets fans after the game against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Auburn won 35-31. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

39. USC over Nebraska: This game is a mismatch across the board. USC’s weakness is pass defense. Nebraska can’t throw. Nebraska’s weakness is, well, everything except for Ameer Abdullah. They may have played their best game of the year against Iowa, and they still needed overtime to win. Add to that the fact that they are going into this with an interim coach, and this really could get ugly.

38. Utah State over UTEP: The spread on this is 10.5 points, making it one of the largest of the bowls. UTEP has some good offensive talent, but that Utah State defense is legit. The Aggies could dominate this game. Worst case scenario: they still win.

37. Auburn over Wisconsin: This could be a really bad bowl season (again) for the Big Ten(14). They have tough matchups all the way around. I will do an easy analogy here: Auburn beat the LSU team that beat Wisconsin by 34 points. Enough said.

36. Washington over Oklahoma State: This is not a reflection of how good I think Washington is, but rather how bad I know Oklahoma State is. Their defense is not very good, and their offense is a work in progress. If you look at the teams on Okie State’s schedule that play good defense (TCU, Kansas State, and Texas), you will realize that they did not score more than 14 points in any of those games. Washington’s defense might be better than all three of those defensive units.

35. Arkansas over Texas: Texas improved by leaps and bounds down the stretch, but they draw a tough matchup here. Arkansas might have been the best team in the SEC West after Halloween. Their record doesn’t tell the whole story. Arkansas played a whopping six top ten teams, and two more that were in the top 20. They are battle tested and very tough, especially on defense. They aren’t going to blow Texas out. In fact, I expect a low scoring defensive battle, and an all around entertaining game. I just don’t think Texas has the offense to get into double digits.

34. Alabama over Ohio State: If you read any of my committee posts, you know that I don’t think Ohio State deserved to get in. That said, I would have Alabama over 25 points against either TCU or Baylor as well. Ohio State has a guy in his second start against what is likely the best, most aggressive defensive line in the country. You know why their loss was to Virginia Tech? That was Barrett in his first start against a swarming defense. Alabama is going to do the same thing. This could get ugly, and it will result in a lot of Buckeye bashing, most of which will be unwarranted. If Barrett were playing, this would be one of the better bowl games. That’s how much he meant to the team.

33. Western Kentucky over Central Michigan: The MAC was weak this year, which went a long way towards Central Michigan making it to six wins. Western Kentucky beat previously undefeated Marshall. The Hilltopper offense is one of the best outside of the power five. Central Michigan simply does not have the defense to stop them.

32. East Carolina over Florida: The Pirates were the darlings of the small conferences after thumping North Carolina earlier in the year. Their offense boasts future NFL players in QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy. The bad news? Florida’s defense is littered with future NFL players. The bad part for the Gators is that Will Muschamp, a defensive guru, is out. This is another team with an interim coach facing an explosive team where the fired head coach was a defensive guy. This does not bode well for Florida, but this could be a tough game.

31. Oregon over Florida State: And yes, I did move this down after the news that Ifo Ekpre-Olamu will miss the game. That is how overmatched I feel that Florida State is. This game will likely be a shootout, which obviously favors Oregon. FSU has been living dangerously for almost two months now. The luck stops here.

Next: Click Here For Games 21-30

Nov 15, 2014; Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal head coach David Shaw signals for his team to run on the field before the game against the Utah Utes at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

30. Houston over Pittsburgh: Pitt has one of the best RB’s in the country in James Conner, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of help around him. Enter Houston, who has lots of offensive firepower against a defense that has been shredded at times this year. Pitt can keep it close if they can control the ball, but that has been an issue at times this year.

29. LSU over Notre Dame: The Irish have been in a tailspin since losing in Tallahassee. Their defense is a mess, and their offense turns the ball over way too much. Now they are facing a stout and aggressive defense. LSU doesn’t have the firepower to blow them out, but they could still dominate the game.

28. Stanford over Maryland: I like C.J. Brown, but he has struggled against good defenses. Stanford borders on great. I don’t see this ending well for the Terps.

27. San Diego State over Navy: SDSU goes largely unnoticed. Maybe because they play on the west coast. Maybe because they don’t belong to a big time conference. At any rate, they have a very good team led by RB Donnel Pumphrey. Navy is going to have problems stopping him, which should lead to a win for the Aztecs.

26. Clemson over Oklahoma: Yes, I am still an Oklahoma fan, but I am also a realist. Trevor Knight can’t fix everything that is wrong with this team. Oklahoma’s defense has been missing in action for over a month now. It won’t matter what the offense does if they can’t stop the Clemson offense. I am quite sure that they can’t. I’m just hoping the Sooners keep it close. It’s going to be really hard losing to a Brent Venables coached defense.

25. Nevada over Louisiana-Lafayette: Nevada QB Cody Fajardo is by far the best player on the field in this one. The Cajuns don’t play particularly good defense anyway. This could be a shootout because Nevada’s D has been punished at times this year. I just like Fajardo more than anything Lafayette can put out there.

24. Tennessee over Iowa: Iowa would fire Kirk Ferentz if they could afford to. They would also hire Bob Stoops if they could afford to. Neither scenario is possible, so the Hawkeyes must keep floundering in mediocrity with a QB that can’t throw and a RB that is a converted fullback. Tennessee’s defense has not been their problem, and the Vols have played quite well since making the switch to Josh Dobbs at QB. I really should put this higher, because I think Iowa is going to get embarrassed.

23. Baylor over Michigan State: The Spartan defense is nowhere near where they were last year. Baylor’s offense is very close to as good as Oregon’s, and we all know what the Ducks did to Sparty. When it comes down to it, Michigan State has struggled against every good offensive team that they played. Baylor is going to put up a whole lot of points in this one.

22. Arizona State over Duke: Here we find another team that has regressed defensively since last year in Duke. I like the offensive weapons that Duke has, and they likely will keep this game from getting out of hand because of it. That said, They won’t be able to stop the Sun Devil offense.

21. Minnesota over Missouri: The SEC East is probably worse than the Big Ten(14) West, if you can believe that. Missouri has played pretty well on the road this year, but I just don’t trust that Maty Mauk can win this game for them. Expect a defensive battle. The reason I am picking the Gophers is because I remember what Indiana did to the Tigers this year. Tevin Coleman is a great back, but David Cobb is nearly as good, and will give Missouri’s defense some fits.

Next: Up Next: 11-20!

Oct 18, 2014; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams (12) reacts after the game. The Tar Heels defeated the Yellow Jackets 48-43 at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

20. North Carolina over Rutgers: North Carolina will give up their share of points, but their offense is impressive .There is no way that Rutgers can keep Marquise Williams and company in check.

19. Arizona over Boise State: The only reason that this game is not higher is because Boise State ALWAYS shows up for bowl games when they seem to be overmatched. Always. Arizona is a much better team on paper, especially on defense, but you can bet the Broncos will show up. Still, I think Arizona will be ready. On the off chance that they are not, I am not out a whole bunch of points, at least.

18. Mississippi State over Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets option attack could throw off the Bulldog defense for a while, but the Bees have zero answer for Dak Prescott. It may stay close, but I think Mississippi State pulls away late.

17. Marshall over Northern Illinois: This is not the same NIU team that people are used to. Their defense isn’t as good, and though Drew Hare has done a fine job, he is not Jordan Lynch. They would need Lynch to have a chance to beat Rakeem Cato and company.

16. Louisiana Tech over Illinois: What do Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State have in common, besides all of them beating Illinois? They all have really good running backs who torched the Illini defense. Enter Louisiana Tech’s Kenneth Dixon, who is also an outstanding back. You see where this is going.

15. Texas A&M over West Virginia: This will be a shootout. That is all I know for sure. I just trust A&M’s offensive weapons more than West Virginia’s.

14. Cincinnati over Virginia Tech: I know that a lot of people have this one higher, but Virginia Tech still has a very good defense. I think Cincy wins, but it won’t be easy. If they make more than one of two mistakes, they could easily lose this one.

13. Western Michigan over Air Force: If nothing else, watch this game just to see Bronco running back Jarvion Franklin. This guy is a very talented back, and is fun to watch. I am just glad that he finally gets to showcase his talents for a larger audience.

12. Central Florida over North Carolina State: The Wolfpack defense is awful. AWFUL! They will eventually blow this. They can’t help themselves.

11. Rice over Fresno State: The Owls are finally hitting their stride. Fresno is a pretty good team, but their defense is a mess. I have to go with the safer bet, which is Rice.

Next: Up Next: The Top Ten!

Sep 28, 2013; Knoxville, TN, USA; South Alabama Jaguars wide receiver Danny Woodson (18) runs the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee won 31 to 24. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

10. Utah over Colorado State: Colorado State is a very good team that has flown under the radar for much of the season. Utah will have some trouble neutralizing WR Rashad Higgins, but ultimately, the Utah defense will just be too much.

9. South Alabama over Bowling Green: I would flip a coin except that I have seen Bowling Green play. They can thank their lucky stars that the MAC was down enough to get them into a bowl game.

8. Arkansas State over Toledo: If it weren’t for the Red Wolves stumbling to the finish line, there would likely be a two in front of that eight. I don’t really trust Arkansas State right now, Toledo isn’t that good either.

7. Oregon over Alabama: Of course, this is tentative, but considering where I put the semifinal games, you can see that I am pretty confident that this will be the matchup. Oregon has their OL at full strength, and that is the only reason I am taking Oregon. This will be a great game if it happens!

6. Memphis over BYU: Memphis is the most improved team in college this year. Don’t forget that they almost beat UCLA in Los Angeles earlier this year. BYU’s offense is no longer a well oiled machine without Taysom Hill. I think this is close, but Memphis takes it.

5. Kansas State over UCLA: Kansas State is the exact type of team that gives UCLA trouble. They are physical on defense, and they will run the ball all over you on offense. I think the K-State defense is good enough to neutralize Hundley, and the Wildcat offense wears out the UCLA D.

4. Boston College over Penn State: Christian Hackenberg is not ready to be a major college quarterback. Penn State’s defense will give BC all sorts of trouble, but the Eagles defense is not chopped liver. They are good enough to force mistakes that will cost Penn State when it really matters.

3. Miami(FL) over South Carolina: What is my reasoning behind this? Brad Kaaya and Duke Johnson are just as good as Mike James and Dylan Thompson, if not better. The U is due!

2. Louisville over Georgia: Louisville’s defense is good enough to keep the Georgia run game in check. I am not sure that Georgia’s defense is good enough to keep the Cardinals in check. Remember that Louisville came very close to beating Florida State.

1. TCU over Mississippi: Both teams have had great seasons, but we all know that Ole Miss is not the same team without Laquon Treadwell. The Rebels will sorely miss his big play ability against this defense, who really is only susceptible to big plays. That is how Baylor got to them.

Stay tuned for my bowl picks against the spread, coming your way all bowl season!

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