NFL Playoffs: Scenarios and Seeding Possibilities
By Keith Myers
Potential seeding possibilities and scenarios for every team still mathematically alive for the NFL playoffs.
The NFL playoffs are just one week away. 16 of the league’s 32 teams are still in the hunt for a spot in the 12-team tournament. 10 of those spots are already spoken for, while the other two are still up for grabs.
For all of the teams involved, seeding is a paramount concern at this point. The top seed in each conference doesn’t have to play on the road until the Super Bowl. The top two seeds in each conference get the opening round off to get rested and healthy.
Only one team in the entire NFL knows what seed they will be in the playoffs. All of the other potential playoff teams still have something to fight for this week.
Here are the possible NFL playoff seedings for every team that is still in contention, as well as every possible path to each of those positions.
AFC Teams
New England and Denver
New England has clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That’s a done deal, and can’t be undone.
Denver gets the No. 2 seed with a win. They can also get a first round bye with a Cincinnati loss or tie, regardless of what Denver does this weekend.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are the No. 4 seed in the AFC with a loss or tie. If they win, then they need Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to tie in order for the Colts to move into the No. 3 seed.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati can claim the No 2. seed If they win and Denver loses. Otherwise the Bengals can claim the No. 3 seed with a win.
If Cincinnati ties, then they get the No. 3 seed if Indianapolis loses or ties, otherwise the Bengals drop to the No. 4 seed.
If Cincinnati loses, then the Steelers win the AFC North, and the Bengals drop down to the No. 5 seed as a wild card team.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are the No. 5 seed if they lose or tie. If they beat the Bengals this weekend, then they win the NFC North and move up to the No. 3 seed.
San Diego Chargers
San Diego sits in a good position. If they win they’re in as No. 6 seed. If they lose, they’re out of the playoffs. If they tie this week, then they will need Baltimore to lose or tie. The Chargers cannot finish above the No. 6 seed.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore needs help to get into the playoffs. If the Ravens win, then they will get in as the No. 6 seed if the Chargers lose or tie. If the Ravens tie, then the Chargers must lose for the Ravens to get into the playoff.
If Baltimore loses, they cannot make the playoffs.
Houston Texans
Houston needs three thing to happen if they are going to get into the playoffs.
- They must win
- Baltimore must lose.
- San Diego must lose.
If all three of those happen then Houston gets in as the No. 6 seed.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs need three things to happen to get into the playoffs:
- Kansas City must win
- Baltimore must lose
- Houston must lose or tie
If all three of those things happen, then the Chiefs make it into the playoffs at the No. 6 seed in the AFC.
NFC Teams
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have clinched their spot in the playoff, but their seeding remains completely unsettled. Seattle holds the No. 1 seed right now, but they can drop as low as the No. 6 seed.
If Seattle wins, they will get the No. 1 overall seed unless Dallas wins and Green Bay and Detroit play to a tie. In that scenario, the Seahawks will get the No. 2 seed.
A Seattle loss complicates things. If Arizona also loses, the Seattle will retain the NFC West title and drop to the No. 3 seed. If Arizona wins or ties, then Seattle would lose the NFC West and end up as a wild card team.
Seattle hold the tiebreaker over both Detroit and Green Bay, so Seattle would be the No. 5 seed unless the two NFC North teams play to a tie, in which case Seattle would get the No. 6 seed.
Dallas Cowboys
Despite having already clinched their division, Dallas’ situation is one of the most complex in the NFC. They can finish anywhere from the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. Dallas loses every possible three-way tie scenario, and also loses every possible two-way tie situation except with Seattle.
Therefore, a Green Bay-Detroit tie, a Seattle win and a Dallas win gives Dallas the No. 1 seed. If Seattle loses or ties, then Arizona must lose or tie as well.
To get the No. 2 seed, Dallas needs both Seattle and Arizona to lose or tie. If they both lose, Dallas gets the the first round bye not matter what happens in Dallas’ game. If Seattle ties, then Dallas must win or tie. If Seattle loses and Arizona ties, then Dallas must win to get No. 2 seed.
Any other combination of wins, losses and ties gives Dallas the No. 3 seed.
Detroit and Green Bay
Green Bay and Detroit play each other this week. The winner claimed the division, and the loser makes it into the playoff as a wild card team. In the event of a tie, Detroit wins the division.
Simple, right? Too bad the seeding question isn’t so simple.
If Seattle wins this week, than the winner of this game gets the No. 2 seed. If Seattle loses, then the Green Bay-Detroit winner gets the No. 1 seed in the playoffs as long as Arizona loses or ties. An Arizona win would but the NFC North winner back into the No. 2 seed.
The loser of this game drops all the way to the the No. 6 seed.
If there is a tie in this game, Detroit gets the No. 1 seed if Seattle, Arizona, and Dallas all lose. If one of those three teams win, then the Lions land in the No. 2 seed. If Dallas and one of the AFC West teams both win, then Detroit would drop to the No. 3 seed.
It is slightly less complicated for the Packers in that scenario. They’d get the No. 5 seed, if Arizona or Seattle loses, and the No. 6 seed if both of the NFC West teams win or tie.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is in the playoff but can finish anywhere from the No. 1 seed to the No. 6 seed depending on the results this weekend. Most of those options require Seattle to lose or tie though. If Seattle wins, Arizona can finish no higher than the No. 5 seed.
The only way that Arizona can drop to the No. 6 seed is for them to lose and for Green Bay and Detroit to tie.
If Seattle does happen to lose or tie than an Arizona win would give the Cardinals the No. 1 seed. If Seattle and Arizona both tie, then Arizona end up with the No. 5 seed, no matter the other results.
In the case where Seattle loses and Arizona ties, Arizona would win the NFC West. They’d still claim the No. 1 seed with a Green Bay-Detroit tie combined with a Dallas loss. If only one of those two things happens, the Arizona would be the No. 2 seed. If neither happens, then Arizona would be the No. 3 seed.
Atlanta and Carolina
This one is easy. Atlanta and Carolina play on Sunday. The winner a makes the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. The loser stays home. If the teams play to a tie, then Carolina gets the playoff spot. There are no other seeding or wild-card possibilities in play for either team.