Evaluating The Warning Signs Prior To Cordarrelle Patterson’s 2014 Collapse

Cordarrelle Patterson has put a lot of sad faces on fantasy owners this season. Some people drafted him in the 2nd round in redraft, and I saw him go in the first round in some dynasty startup drafts. Patterson had a hefty premium considering the dividends provided for his fantasy owners. I have been burned by Patterson in a few leagues myself.

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For every mistake we make in fantasy there is a lesson to be learned. A question we must ask ourselves, was there any signs of Patterson becoming a bust this season and how can prevent ourselves from making the same mistake in the future? In this article I will analyze the warning signs that we should have paid attention too before drafting Patterson this year. I will also go over how we can learn from our mistake in drafting Patterson when drafting comparable players in the future.

Dec 7, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (84) rushes against the New York Jets for 6 yards in the second quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings win 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

College Production:

Patterson’s small sample size of division 1 college production sticks out like a sore thumb compared to most wide receivers drafted in the top 100 in the NFL Draft. Patterson graduated high school in 2008, and didn’t play football in 2009 while attending North Carolina Tech Christian Academy. Patterson transferred to Hutchinson Community College in 2010, where he dominated the JUCO ranks during his 2010 and 2011 seasons. Patterson was considered the top JUCO prospect during this time period, and later transferred to the University of Tennessee. Patterson stepped into a starting position at Tennessee when teammate Da’Rick Rogers was kicked off the team. Patterson had an amazing year in 2012 where he caught 46 passes for 778 yards and 5 TDs. Patterson intermittently lined up in the backfield in 2012 and rushed for 308 yards and 3 TDs on 25 carries. After his 2012 season, Patterson declared for the NFL Draft.

With all that being said Patterson only has 1 year of college production, which is and indicator that Patterson is very raw when it comes to a lot of the fundamentals at the wide receiver position. Unlike a lot of young wide receivers, Patterson hasn’t had as much experience against top of the line defensive backs. Patterson is going to need more experience and time to develop his skills, because he didn’t get as many opportunities to develop them in college. Looking at the college production, you can see he would have a bit of a learning curve coming to the NFL, and there would be a possibility of him not producing for your fantasy team during his 2^nd year in the NFL.

Vikings Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner:

Turner has never had a player quite like Cordarrelle Patterson. Turner has always had the typical wide receiver, which could run all the routes and are not dependent on bubble screens and designed runs. Turner has no history of creating “offensive schemes” to get his talented wide receivers the ball. He is also an older coach, and older coaches are more reluctant to change their game plans since they like to stick to what’s been successful for them over the course of their careers.

The switch from former offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave’s system to Norv Turner’s system would also cause a gap in Patterson’s development. Patterson is focusing on learning the basic fundamentals of the position and learning a new offensive system on top of that makes it very difficult to develop at the pace in which would produce fantasy results in his 2^nd season. If Patterson doesn’t develop, he will never get a chance under Norv Turner, because he is not going to draw up special plays for him to be relevant in fantasy. One of the reasons why Patterson had a flash of success at the end of his rookie season was that Bill Musgrave is very creative and he found ways to get Patterson the ball. Norv Turner is not going to do that, so Patterson needs to develop or get in another offensive system in order to be fantasy relevant.

Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and Wide Receiver Charles Johnson

Bridgewater has had his ups and downs during his rookie season this year, which made it difficult for Patterson to get going in a few games. Week 9 against the Washington Redskins, Bridgewater missed Patterson when he was wide open down the field, which would have been a long touchdown. Inaccuracies from Bridgewater earlier this season made it hard for Patterson to get the opportunities to make plays. Bridgewater has evolved during the end of the 2014 season, and he appears that he is going to be the QB of the future for the Minnesota Vikings.

Patterson had to take a back seat due to the emergence of wide receiver Charles Johnson who broke out this season. Johnson is an athletic freak just like Patterson, and is currently a more polished route runner. Patterson will have to develop in the off-season if he wants to regain any of the playing time he had earlier in the season.

Going forward, Patterson is a hold for me in dynasty formats because his value is very low right now and you will never receive enough in return to warrant his upside. Patterson is still a very young receiver who is going to need some time to develop, and we have been very spoiled lately with how rapidly receivers have been making an impact. There’s a chance that Patterson could put it together during 2015 or even 2016 because he is very talented. I would only sell Patterson if it was a top 5 rookie pick, because the odds of getting a player as talented as him with a late 1^st round pick or early 2^nd round rookie pick is very slim. I would rather hold and hope he develops, because his ceiling is through the roof.

In redraft leagues next year he is going to be a player you will have to monitor during the off-season. If he doesn’t improve then he will likely have a repeat of what he showed us in 2014. Like I said earlier, Norv Turner is not going to conjure up special plays for him, so his development is vital for fantasy production. I wouldn’t mind taking late round stabs at Patterson next year on the chance that he develops.

Feel free to contact me on twitter @bmatz08 for fantasy advice.

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