Andre Ellington is a player that many dynasty owners may not be thinking about right now because he is out for the season due to a sports hernia. He’s a player you need to be monitoring because his situation with Cardinals is more malleable than you think. Some players appear very safe when they are the opposite, and to be ahead of your competition you must recognize the players who may take a considerable drop in value in the future.
Nov 16, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back Andre Ellington (38) carries the ball against the Detroit Lions at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Ellington is currently out for the season, which means he will not have a chance to increase his stock until the offseason. There is a good chance that the Cardinals will bring in a free agent or draft a running back this year. Ellington’s injury will make the front office recognize that they will need to add depth to the position. When this happens, Ellington’s trade value in your league will drop, and you will not be able to get as much for him as you would today. Ellington looks fast on tape, but during the combine he tested with a 4.62 40 yard dash. Ellington doesn’t have the speed to be an elite running back in the NFL. He is small at 5’9 and 197 LBS, so he’s not going to be able to take a heavy workload without getting injured. So, even if the Cardinals don’t bring in any added competition at running back, there is a good chance Ellington will be injured next season. He has been dinged up multiple times during this season, and another year of this workload will be to much stress on his body.
You may think you have a young back on your roster, and he has a few years before you have to worry about the end of career. Think again. Ellington will be 26 1/2 years old at the beginning of next season. Statistically, RBs start to fall off at age 27, and Ellington may experience a quicker drop off in production due to the injuries he has experienced during his career. Ellington’s value isn’t insulated by age, so a younger running back could steal a lot of his thunder next year. What you may not know is that Ellington is a full year older than Saints RB Mark Ingram, who has been in the league two years longer than Ellington.
Ellington was a big surprise to a lot of fantasy owners during his rookie season in 2013 because he was a 6th round draft choice that came out of nowhere. Being a 6th round draft choice is not a good thing when it comes to a player’s long term value. Ton Brady is the exception, not the rule. The Cardinals haven’t placed much stock into Ellington, and they can drop him on the depth chart or even off the team with ease. It’s easier for teams to cut a player if they don’t have much invested in them. I doubt he gets cut next year, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to move him down the depth chart. The Cardinals don’t have any strings attached to him.
If I owned Ellington, I would be shopping him around to every owner in my league trying to get a first round pick and hopefully more. By this time next year, you will not be able to get a first rounder out of him. You may not be able to get a first out of him four months from now. You have to treat your players as if you’re in the stock market, and you have to come to terms with when some player’s values are likely to drop. In Ellington’s case, his value is going to drop, and now is the time to get out of his stock.
Feel free to ask me any fantasy questions you may have on Twitter @bmatz08
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