Florida State Seminoles vs. Oregon Ducks
The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on Thursday evening isn’t for all of the marbles—just a significant portion of them.
In the first of two College Football Playoff semifinals, the last team to win the Bowl Championship Series national championship—undefeated Florida State (13-0) takes on Pac-12 champion Oregon (12-1) at the famed Rose Bowl.
The Seminoles bring in a 29-game winning streak and little respect. The defending champs are the No. 3 seed in the four-team playoff despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team.
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This matchup also brings together the last two Heisman Trophy winners—2013 winner quarterback Jameis Winston of Florida State and this year’s honoree, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Seminoles—dominant during their 2013 national title run—have become the Houdini of college football in 2014, winning seven of their 13 games by seven points or fewer, including each of their last four.
Florida State won at Miami 30-26 on Nov. 15, held off Boston College 20-17 on Nov. 22, eked out a 24-19 win over Florida on Nov. 29 and topped Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game, 37-35, in Charlotte, N.C. on Dec. 6.
They also had relatively close calls with Oklahoma State (37-31 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Aug. 30), Clemson (23-17 overtime victory on Sept. 20) and Notre Dame (31-27 win on Oct. 18).
Oregon suffered one loss, a 31-24 decision at home to Arizona on Oct. 2, but avenged that with a 51-13 blowout in the Pac-12 title game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Dec. 5.
But other than that, the Ducks had one game—a 38-31 win at Washington State on Sept. 20—that had a margin of seven points or less.
In its last five games, Oregon outscored its foes 238-85.
Details for Thursday’s game are below:
Date: Thursday, Jan. 1
Start Time: 5 p.m. Eastern
Location: Pasadena, Calif.
Stadium: Rose Bowl
TV Info: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: National—ESPN Radio, Florida State—click here, Oregon—click here.
Ticket information: For Oregon ticket info click here. For Florida State ticket info click here.
Keys to Victory
Florida State has dealt with injuries on the defensive side of the ball all season and in a game featuring this much offensive firepower, it’s unlikely this matchup turns into a defensive, grind-it-out game.
The Seminoles is likely to get defensive tackle Nile Lawrence-Stample back for the Rose Bowl, while Oregon lost a huge piece on its defense when All-America cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was lost to a knee injury in practice. That puts a lot of pressure on Troy Hill and freshman Chris Seisay in coverage.
Both teams proved adept at creating turnovers—Oregon forced 25 in 13 games, while Florida State turned opponents over 24 times.
The headline battle comes down to the guys with the fancy Heisman doorstops—Winston and Marieta. Mariota is attempting to become the third Heisman winning quartrerback in five years to add a national title to his Heisman resume (Cam Newton after the 2010 season and Winston last year).
That is why defenses may actually hold the key for this game—whichever one can get the most stops may wind up being the one that advances to the championship game on Jan. 12.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Oregon minus-9
Moneyline: Oregon minus-325, Florida State plus-270
O/U: 71½
Prediction
We’ve been told a number of times over the years that we had to believe in an undefeated team—no matter how wobbly it had appeared at times—simply because it was an undefeated team.
But how did that work out for Notre Dame following the 2012 season? Or for Ohio State following the 2006 campaign?
Florida State is reminiscent of the aging heavyweight that, while not having been beaten, has been depending on friendly scorecards instead of knockout punches for awhile. Eventually that fighter—or in this case, team—is going to fall and it’s probably going to fall hard.
Final Score: Oregon 33, Florida State 23
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