What are the biggest storylines for Day 2 of the NFL‘s divisional round?
As we hit day two of the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, teams have cleared the first hurdle in their quest to make it to the Super Bowl in Arizona. On Saturday, the Seattle Seahawks soundly defeated the Carolina Panthers 31-17 and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots came back to beat the Baltimore Ravens 35-31.
Last week wasn’t without some bumps in the road either, as the Cowboys win over the Lions involved some referee controversy and while we all thought the Ravens could win, we didn’t expect the Steelers to collapse quite that completely.
So while we break down the two games and their storylines today, we do it knowing that something, somewhere, will go differently than we expect. So while we break down each of the two games, and look at the main points of interest (followed by our picks for the day at the end), we do it knowing that there’ll be a whole different set of topics for conversation come Monday morning.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
So the Dallas Cowboys apparently got lucky last week. That’s football—and that’s also last week.
We’ve heard people say on the radio that Green Bay isn’t ‘built to win at Lambeau’ and ‘they only want to throw’ which just goes to show you how little even media and ‘experts’ watch football.
Yes, with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, this is a team which will hurl the ball through the air. They have the talent to do it. But it’s also a team with Eddie Lacy, one of the better running backs in the NFL and while he’s not putting together numbers like DeMarco Murray this year, he’s pretty darn good, ranked as the seventh most productive running backs in the NFL and carrying the ball for 4.6 yards a clip behind a pretty good offensive line.
So don’t buy into that nonsense when you hear it.
The Cowboys have a better offensive line and a hotter running back, as well as the ability to throw the ball so offensively, these are two pretty evenly matched teams.
Defensively? Well, that’s where this game will turn.
For most of the season, Dallas’ defense has played a bit over its skies, out-producing the talent on the team. They’re ranked No. 19 in the NFL overall, No. 26 against the pass, though No. 8 against the run. That last part is a bit misleading as they have allowed 18 touchdowns on the ground, second most in the NFL.
The pass defense ranking is a bit of a shell game as well—the Cowboys are tied for the seventh most interceptions in the NFL and have allowed the sixth least touchdowns in the NFL.
Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is hurt, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Chris Mortenson reported he has a slight tear in his calf. That limits his mobility and ability to extend plays. Rodgers is a great pocket passer though, so that won’t make this easy.
You can say Dallas is only here because of a bad call, but Detroit had its chances last week. If Dallas lets Green Bay have the same opportunities, it may not go all that well for them.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
It’s really hard to see where this goes the Colts’ way.
Yes, Andrew Luck is amazing but it’s him and T.Y. Hilton. There is no run game. There is a shaky offensive line. The defense isn’t particularly good.
The Colts have done a poor job of surrounding Luck with talent. Maybe they are trying to avoid what happened with Peyton Manning, where they sank so much into the quarterback and receiver positions that there was nothing left for anyone else.
Or maybe they just think Luck will fix it all.
The Colts are a house of cards (minus Kevin Spacey) and it is hard to see this team winning in Denver.
Especially against a Denver team which has a very physical defense, one which could very well attack the offensive line issues the Colts have and shut down Hilton with either Chris Harris or Aqib Talib.
People are saying Manning looks off, but all that did the last few games was showcase C.J. Anderson, who is running enormously well.
Trent Dilfer said something interesting on The Michael Kay Show on ESPN Radio in New York Friday. He wondered if Manning has been holding back the last few weeks—and NFL version of the rope a dope—and is much healthier then we think.
Dilfer wondered if, in fact, Manning will come out firing away with the Colts thinking he has to hand the ball off and catch the Colts defense sleeping.
I won’t go that far into tinfoil hate territory, but I do think Manning will have one of his better games against a defense which just isn’t all that good.
THE PICKS
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
This should be a good game. In our storylines we didn’t even talk about the undefeated on the road Cowboys or the undefeated at home Packers—call it the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. That said, we think the Dallas defense finally meets its match against the offense. Ultimately, Green Bay’s defense will do a better job against Dallas than the reverse. So we’re picking the Packers.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
As we said, there is very little chance that we can see Indianapolis winning this game. With Andrew Luck (and his Civil War beard) there is always a shot—he’s that good. But the Broncos have too much talent on both sides of the ball for Luck to overcome.
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