NFL Conference Championship: Predicting Super Bowl teams
Who’s winning the NFL Conference Championship Games this weekend?
On to the NFL Conference Championship weekend we go football junkies! We just wrapped up an intriguing weekend of NFL Divisional games and that leaves us with four teams to chase after the Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots won a nail-bitter over the always dangerous Ravens and Joe Flacco. The Seahawks took care of usual business by knocking off the Panthers. In The Ice Bowl II, we witnessed the Packers defeating the Cowboys in a controversial finish (Yes, that was a catch by Dez Bryant. The NFL needs to change that stupid rule ASAP). To wrap up the weekend, the Colts pulled off the upset on the road against the Broncos and possibly sent Peyton Manning into retirement.
Last week, I went 2-2 on my predictions again and that leaves me with a 4-4 record for these NFL playoffs. Here are my picks for the two Conference Championship Games next Sunday…
NFC Championship Game
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (12-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Sunday January 18, 2015 3 p.m. on FOX
Green Bay squeaked by Dallas in the Divisional Round while Seattle overwhelmed Carolina. Who looks better going into the NFC Championship Game: Seattle or Green Bay? I would have to say without a doubt Seattle and the fact that they have home-field advantage (where they have pretty much been unbeatable the last three years with a 25-2 record in both the regular season and playoffs) in this game makes them a not huge but marginal favorite to win. Seattle is currently on a seven game-winning streak (regular season and playoffs combined) and during that stretch their defense has been borderline historic; straight shutting down any and every team they go against. During their last seven games, Seattle is only giving up 8.0 points per game, 225 total yards per game, has forced 13 turnovers, and has outscored their opponents 165-56. They can take away the run (3rd in run defense) and you better be smart before you challenge their awesome secondary (first in pass defense).
The enthralling thing about Seattle’s secondary of Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Byron Maxwell (when healthy) is that there have been some excellent secondaries throughout NFL history that have excelled at being fast and being able to cover at an elite level but not necessarily great at tackling, hitting, and being physical. And there have been past secondaries that have excelled at being physical, tackling, and hitting but have lacked in cover skills and speed. With this Seattle secondary, they excel at all five phases: They are fast, physical, can hit, can tackle, and can cover all at an elite level, plus they are intimidating as any secondary the game has ever seen.
What secondary in NFL history is that complete? I’m serious. Find one because I can’t.
And this is the secondary that Aaron Rodgers will be throwing against on Sunday. Good Luck Aaron.
In order for the Packers to win this game, controlling time of possession will have to be a key factor for them. The Packers offense will have to have a balanced attack and Rodgers is gonna have to test the Seahawk secondary down field a couple of times to open up the game (Especially Richard Sherman, who Rodgers avoided throwing in his direction in the Packers Week 1 loss to the Seahawks 36-16). In my opinion, this is huge legacy game for Rodgers. He’s probably walking away with his second MVP in a week or two and he’s quickly establishing himself as one of the best quarterbacks to ever do it (I have him in the top 20 all-time right now) and winning important games like this one against the best defensive team in the last decade will only enhance his status.
I just don’t see it happening in this game. Russell Wilson (5-1 playoff record) is another quarterback that is building his resume up quickly and you can make the case he’s been as good as any QB in the playoffs the last three years. He’ll make great decisions and make enough big plays for his team to win like he always does. And I haven’t even mentioned Beast Mode. Seattle’s determined to become the first NFC team to make back-to-back Super Bowls since the Packers did it in 1996-1997 led by Brett Favre.
Yep, I’m feeling the Legion of Boom in this one.
The Pick: Seahawks 31-24
AFC Championship Game
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4)
Sunday January 18, 2015 6:30 p.m. on CBS
Boy, I bet the Patriots were glad to walk away with a victory Saturday against a Ravens team that seems to give New England fits in the playoffs, but they came through like were accustomed to seeing them do. The way Indianapolis beat Denver came as a mega surprise to me, given that the Broncos have the superior team in pretty much every phase of the game and the Colts struggled to beat quality teams all season. The way the Colts defended Peyton Manning and forced him to beat them down the field worked out well for them because Manning was completely off with the majority of his throws and his arm strength is questioned at this point of his career – plus it was reported he played the game with a right torn quad, which could have played a part in his poor performance.
However that tactic won’t work against a healthy Tom Brady. The Colts defense this season has been a huge flaw and that unit hasn’t been dependable all season. They showed out against the Broncos but I don’t expect a repeat performance versus this Patriots team. Luck gave the Broncos defense fits once he got outside the pocket and scrambled to make key throws but for the most part Denver’s D played a solid game and didn’t surrender any big, devastating plays — it was Denver’s offense that didn’t show up. Against New England on the road, Luck will have to limit his turnovers (2 INTs vs Broncos) and be even better in order for the Colts to come out victorious.
Against the Ravens, the Patriots secondary struggled to find its footing versus Joe Flacco (dude was on fire in the first half) but they picked it up in the second half. In the first half, Ravens wideout Steve Smith caught three passes for 44 yards and a touchdown with cornerback Darrelle Revis sticking him. In the second half, Revis held Smith to zero catches. Revis will be guarding Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and that will be the matchup to watch because if Revis can take away Luck’s favorite target, then things might be bleak for the Colts. On the other hand, I expect the Patriots to play a more complete game this week, run the football better (only rushed 13 times for an anemic 14 yards), and not get from behind like they did twice (both by 14 points) versus Ravens. I expect Tom Brady to perform at an even higher level this week with a record sixth Super Bowl appearance by a starting quarterback on the line.
The Patriots are the better team, the stronger team, the more reliable team, and there be at home in freezing conditions that will favor them. Luck and the Colts made a gigantic step getting this far, but I don’t think it’s there time yet. The Patriots have proved for the better part of the season that they have the AFC’s top team and they will prove it on Sunday. This might be the Pats last chance at another Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era and I think they will take advantage of it.
The Pick: Patriots 37-23