Chicago Bulls: Analyzing the rise of Jimmy Butler
By John Bauman
Taking a look at how the Chicago Bulls Jimmy Butler has improved into one of the best two-guards in the NBA.
Jimmy Butler has turned himself into a legit superstar in the NBA playing for the Chicago Bulls, playing along former MVP of the league Derrick Rose. Butler has improved steadily over the course of his four seasons in the league and now is finally getting some attention for all the hard work that he has put into the game.
Butler is averaging 20.4 points and 6.0 rebounds per game for the Bulls while playing 39.7 minutes per game. However, it hasn’t always been this good for Jimmy Butler, let’s look at his journey in the league from the 30th overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft to now.
The Draft
In the 2011 NBA Draft, a long, lanky shooting guard from Marquette was picked with the last choice of the first round by the Chicago Bulls. Jimmy Butler, a senior guard, had a good but not great college career, and people didn’t expect much from him for the Bulls right away.
Some of the players drafted above him? How about Nolan Smith, who was drafted 21st overall out of Duke and started just four NBA games. Or maybe JaJuan Johnson, picked three slots ahead of Butler, out of Purdue, who played just 36 games for the Celtics before being traded for and cut by the Houston Rockets. Do you think those teams are kicking themselves for not drafting Butler now?
First Year
Butler played just 42 games his first season in Chicago. He averaged 8.5 minutes per game and averaged less that three points per contest, sitting on the bench and learning from a talented, veteran led Chicago backcourt.
Check out Butler’s shot chart from that first season to the right. A lot of blue and not a lot of volume for a first round pick. It is amazing to see this shot chart now and look at how far Butler has come with his game.
Butler’s first season, in 2011-12, was also the year Derrick Rose hurt his knee in the playoffs. While this was bad for the Bulls, it was a blessing in disguise for Butler, who was looking at a bigger role in 2012-13 while Rose was out recovering from the knee injury.
Second Year
Butler’s second year in the league, he started 20 games and increased his points per game by six points compared to his rookie season, up to 8.6 points per game. His minutes also shot up to 26 per game as the team leaned on him.
Check out Butler’s shot chart in year two. As you can see, he got a lot better at finishing at the basket, upgrading his FG% around the hoop to an acceptable rate for a two guard. He also started to develop a corner three-pointer as Chicago looked for some spacing for their offense sans-Rose.
Butler’s second year was also when he really started to make a name for himself on the defensive floor. His lock down perimeter defense has been a big part of Chicago’s stout unit on that side of the floor ever since this 2012-13 season.
Remember, Butler was nothing more than a second year guard with a lot of potential at this point, however. He didn’t really start to put things together until the 2012-13 postseason, when Butler played 40 minutes a game in the playoffs while averaging 13.3 points and 5.2 boards. Butler was aided here by an injury to the Bull’s Luol Deng, and he made the most of his chances in the second half of the season and postseason. Butler looked prime for a breakout year in his third season in the league after that strong performance in the playoffs.
Third Year
Last season, Butler made NBA All Defense second-team, scored 13.1 points per game and solidified his status as one of the better two-guards in the game of basketball. Asked again to play extra minutes while Derrick Rose recovered from yet another knee injury, Butler just kept improving and playing at a high level.
His shot chart looks a little different from his second NBA season, though. The first thing you notice is the huge increase in volume, especially from behind the three-point arc. Butler attempted 240 threes in his third season in the NBA, shooting a lowly 28.3% from behind that arc. Butler did improve from the corners while not converting quite as much around the rim. While Butler’s defense was making him one of the better wing defenders in the game, his offensive game still had a long way to go before he could justify a title of being an All-NBA player or All-Star.
This was a big year of growth for Butler. He was asked at times to carry the Chicago offense, and his efficiency suffered as a result. Butler’s true shooting percentage dropped to 52.2 from 57.4 a season before as his usage rate rose to 16.1%. Butler was going through some third year growing pains, but he emerged this season playing the best basketball of his life, improving his shooting percentages while upping his usage rate again.
Fourth Year
This season, Butler has been nothing short of spectacular for the Bulls. He is averaging 20.6 points per game for the Bulls, is shooting 46.5% from the field and is carrying the Bulls to a top record in the Eastern Conference. His play has vaunted him into the discussion of players who will receive a max contract this summer, and he is garnering some buzz about a possible All-Star game trip. Those last two things would have been unthinkable for Butler as recently as two seasons ago, but now, Butler has improved and developed into a true franchise player worthy of both discussions.
Let’s take a quick look at Butler’s shot chart from this season.
Butler is shooting at a league average rate from around the basket but has really improved from beyond the arc, especially on the right wing, where he is shooting 40.4%. There is still a lot of room for improvement, especially around the rim and from the left side of the floor, but Butler has come a long way from averaging 2.6 points his rookie season.
What do the advanced stats say about Butler? He is 4th among shooting guards in PER, or player efficiency rating, at 21.24. For reference, that mark ranks just slightly ahead of Dirk Nowitzki’s PER and ranks 28th in the league overall. Butler also is doing well in another one of John Hollinger’s advanced stats — value added. Butler ranks seventh in the league in value added, one slot ahead of Mark Gasol, in this stat, which measures “the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a ‘replacement player’ (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce.”*
Butler has come a long way in three and a half years in the league, and the sky is the limit for the 30th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Definition and stats from here.
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