Fantasy Baseball: Max Scherzer Joins Best Rotation in MLB

The Washington Nationals signed free agent pitcher Max Scherzer to a 7-year, $210 million contract Sunday night. That deal is $66 million more than his former team, the Detroit Tigers, was offering. Scherzer received criticism for not signing a contract during the 2013-14 offseason; one that hovered around the $150 million mark. These days, pitchers are just one Tommy John surgery from becoming busts, but Scherzer chose to gamble on himself and it certainly paid off as he now joins one of the best rotations in the league.

The Nationals currently boast arguably the deepest pitching staff in MLB with a starting rotation that now features Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister. Just to put that in perspective, Fister is currently in line to be the fifth starter. In 2014, he had a 2.41 ERA and put up 16 wins. He could easily be a second starter on most teams. All Washington starters had double-digit wins in 2014, including Gonzalez who really had a down year. I say “down,” but he still had 10 wins and a 3.57 ERA. He just stands out from the other starters as they all had stellar years. The big loser here is Tanner Roark, who now most likely gets booted from the rotation. As the fifth starter in 2014, he surprised with 15 wins and a 2.85 ERA. He will most likely be used as a long reliever or even possibly a trade candidate. He could be a dark horse in 2015.

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Scherzer, the 2013 Cy Young winner, was really an average pitcher until that 2013 season. Since he became a starter in 2009, he had never posted an ERA less than 3.50. But 2013 saw him go 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts. It’s obviously tough to repeat those types of numbers, but Scherzer came close in 2014 with a record of 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 252 strikeouts.

Where Scherzer really shined in 2014 was with runners on. Batters only hit .222 off the Tigers’ ace with runners on base as opposed to .250 with the bases empty. One of the big reasons for that can be the defensive ability of the catcher. Tigers’ catcher Alex Avila ranked second among qualified catchers in caught stealing percentage (.336). Nationals’ catcher Wilson Ramos actually posted a .375 percentage, but only played in 87 games. The maintenance of baserunners is vital to keep them out of scoring position and can allow the pitcher to focus more on the batter. Scherzer’s days in Washington should see him continue that maintenance.

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Additionally, the Nationals won the NL East with a record 96-66. Not only did they have great pitching, but also an extremely balanced lineup that led them to a 9th place finish in runs. The only real change they experienced was the loss of Adam LaRoche and the addition of Yunel Escobar. There’s no doubt that Scherzer will receive ample amounts of run support to go along with a bullpen that features new closer, Drew Storen. Other than 2011, Storen had a rocky road in the majors moving from closer to setup man and some stints in the minors. But in 2014, Storen shined in front of Rafael Soriano with a 1.12 ERA. The Nationals declined an option on Soriano this offseason making him a free agent and opening the door for Storen to close out games.

Scherzer’s time in Washington will most likely be successful and his fantasy stock could rise even more from his years with the Tigers. The NL East is still a developing division and the Nationals are certainly in line to repeat as division champs. Look for Scherzer to be one of the top-5 pitchers taken in 2015.

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