Why Alabama’s coming recruiting title means nothing

Alabama will win college´s football´s recruiting title again. Here is why that doesn´t matter.

As the Alabama Crimson Tide close in on yet another college football recruiting title, one thing is crystal clear: it doesn´t matter.

“What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference – the precious present moment,” Alabama coach Nick Saban has said according to Tide Football.com.

That´s right, all of those five star recruits that Nick Saban is getting does not guarantee him another championship. And The Tide´s days of dominance are over. And they know it.

The slide started with their defeat on the field goal debacle. And now, Ohio State and Oregon have unquestionably passed Alabama. In the coming seasons, USC and Notre Dame will join them. Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State even threaten to relegate Alabama to fourth best in their own conference.

Absurd, you say? Not so fast. College football dynasties don´t last long, anymore. Just ask the folks in Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska and Miami. There was a day when the slide of any of those schools would have been considered as preposterous. But there they are, struggling to climb back to the top.

The truth is, all of those so called ¨recruiting gurus¨ don´t really know what they are talking about. That is why they rated Johnny Manziel as a three star recruit. You didn´t hear a word from them when Manziel won the Heisman Trophy. Sure, he has been a huge disappointment in the NFL, but that doesn’t diminish his success at Texas A&M.

It is easy to throw in a formula that measures speed, stats and high school success. But the problem is, none of those are determining factors because high school football is not played on a level playing field. Without being subjective, how do you compare a 2,000 yard running back from a small school to a 1,000 yard back at a large school? You can´t do it, because the competition level is different. Plus, they were running behind different offensive lines. And regional competition is different. So the gurus really don´t know, regardless of what they say.

And the reality is that the rating of the top high school players by position, even if proven as accurate, is still not a true indicator of success in college. That is because there is no guarantee that a player will even play the same position that he played in high school. Receivers grow to become tight ends. Tight ends grow to become quick offensive tackles. Running backs become athletic linebackers.

It wasn´t so long ago that the SEC was supposedly light years ahead of everyone else. Speed! Speed! Speed! There´s just nothiing like it. You just can´t stop it. Well, Ohio State showed Oregon that you can´t win on speed alone. You still have to line up and block and tackle.
The future of college football is based on building a strong offensive line and putting a big, fast running back to run behind it. They can run as fast as they want, but when you smack them in the mouth, they are likely to slow down.

And the future of defensive football is to have depth on the defensive line. As teams run the hurry up offense, the defenses that can send out two defensive line units without losing talent level will keep up. They won´t fade in the fourth quarter.

Of course, defensive line depth has been a cornerstone of the success of Alabama and the SEC. But the rest of the country has taken note. Trying to evaluate a defensive lineman´s future performance is one of the most difficult tasks for a college recruiter. How much dedication will the recruit have in the weight room? How will the added weight affect his mobility?

In high school, it is easy for a larger player to dominate. But how will he react when he goes up against a player of equal size and strength? That is why so many dominant high school defensive linemen disappoint at the college level. The hardest thing to do is to measure a motor, which is why so many unheralded defensive line recruits far exceed expectations.

And stock piling talent, as Alabama has done in recent years, can have a negative effect. That leaves less opportunity for players to play early. Less playing time results in less development. Schools that give players more opportunity to play as freshmen take their lumps early, but the dividends pay off when they become sophomores.

Alabama has had its dynasty. But as Saban says, that is only history.

Next: Where does Alabama fall on our all-time college football program rankings?