Dynasty Price Check: Victor Cruz

Sep 21, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz (80) scores a touchdown past Houston Texans cornerback Kareem Jackson (25) at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Victor Cruz has been the leading receiver for the New York Giants since 2011, but he had his 2014 campaign end early due to a torn patellar tendon in his knee. The injury happened on Oct. 12 during a Sunday night game against the Eagles. Cruz accumulated 337 receiving yards and 1 touchdown during the first six games of the season before he had his injury. The statistics would have prorated to 61 receptions, 899 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The proration is a little bit skewed due to Cruz’s injury in week 6 causing him to leave the game early.Cruz broke out during the 2011 season as one of the best receivers in the league, posting 82 receptions for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns. He then followed that performance with another excellent campaign of 86 receptions 1092 yards and 10 touch downs. Cruz quickly earned Eli Manning’s trust, and was heavily targeted every game for the Giants. Cruz produced solid fantasy numbers during his 2013 season with 73 receptions for 998 yards and 4 touchdowns while playing only 14 games. From 2011-2013 Cruz became a dependable fantasy starter. Cruz would like to have a do over on his 2014 season, Eli Manning started the season off cold, and then Cruz tore his patellar tendon during week 6. I feel his pain, not literally, but I do feel bad for the guy.

After the injury, the Giants started to rely on Odell Beckham Jr. as their primary wide receiver and he delivered one of the greatest, if not the greatest, rookie seasons of all time. Now, things are starting to get interesting for Cruz coming into the 2015 season. A Patellar tendon injury is hard to come back from, and typically takes a season or two for a player to return to their true form. Some players are the exception when it comes to knee injuries, and there’s a chance that Cruz comes back without skipping a beat.

Let’s say Cruz comes back next season perfectly healthy. The odds that Cruz will receive the same amount of targets that he once received will be highly unlikely. There’s a chance that Beckham and Cruz can co-exist, but the odds say that Cruz may not have the same productivity that he once had. Beckham is a superior talent, and is one of the best wide receiver prospects to come out in quite some time. Because of that he is going to demand a lot of targets. Cruz can still hold fantasy value even if Beckham gets the bulk of the targets because Cruz is talented and he will get a lot of single coverage against defensive backs. If he comes back healthy, I can see his production dropping from 10-30%, which will still be relevant in fantasy.

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Cruz will be approaching 29 years old at the beginning of next season, and wide receivers’ skill level tend to drop off around the age of 30. So, the question we must ask ourselves is how much does Victor Cruz has left in his gas tank? Age catches up with all NFL players. We just don’t know exactly when it will come in to effect, but it will happen. Another thing we have to look at is Cruz’s contract situation. In 2013, Cruz signed a 5 year $43 million deal with $15,629,000 guaranteed. Starting this year the possibilities of Cruz getting cut by the Giants increase every year because the dead money that the team would accrue due to cutting Cruz isn’t very hard on the cap. If the Giants were to cut Cruz in 2015 it would cost them $5,700,000 against the cap and the hit drops to $3,800,000 in 2016 and drops even further to 1, 900,000 in 2017. If Cruz has a bad season this year, and his knee is not holding up, then there is a good chance that he gets cut before the 2016 season. He is due 7.9 million in salary in 2016, and cutting him off the roster could prove to be cost effective if Cruz does not have a good season next season. Add that Odell Beckham is the future of the team, and the odds of him seeing the end of his contract with the team is even less likely.

So, what does all this mean for Cruz’s dynasty value? Well, right now his stock is very low and if you were to sell him you wouldn’t get back anything near what his potential is. I look at Cruz as a hold right now, and I wouldn’t look to sell him until the middle of next season. You just have to hope that he is able to contribute to the team next year and have fantasy value.

I think Cruz could be a cheap buy right now, but I wouldn’t pay anything more than a mid 2^nd round rookie pick for him. I’m worried about Cruz’s long term player value because of the age, injury, and him possibly being on a different team in a few years. I feel that an older Cruz in a different situation than what he is in now is something that I don’t want any part of. If you are in a shallow league and you want to sell Cruz because you are rebuilding and feel that he won’t be worth rostering in a few years, then I would suggest packaging him up with another one of your rookie picks to move up in the draft and possibly get into the 1^st round. If I had a team that was ready to make a championship run, then I wouldn’t be against buying Cruz on the cheap this offseason because there’s a good chance that he will still produce for your fantasy team this season. If my team was in the middle of the pack or rebuilding, then I wouldn’t want any part of him because his player value will diminish by the time your team is ready to compete.

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