Third-Year Leapers: Ranking the 2012 NBA Draft Class

Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Growing up, my dad always said to me, “Give guys three years in the league before you start to judge them.” Well, I’ve cheated a bit and only given these guys about two and three-fifths of a season before casting judgement. Sorry, pops!  Admittedly, rankings are pretty damn arbitrary but if you’re going to do it, I’ve always thought it made more sense to give guys a couple seasons of acclimating themselves to the league before stacking up a draft class.  For example, despite being one of the older players in the draft, Draymond Green failed to earn a spot on either All-Rookie team. Midway through his “junior” season, however, people are talking about whether he’s deserving of a max contract.

So, without further ado, let the ranking begin.

1. Anthony Davis: 1^st overall pick

Anthony Davis is not only the best player in this class; he’s already entered the conversation for the best player in the league at the ripe age of 21. I know the Pelicans aren’t exactly taking the league by storm but Davis would get my MVP vote right now. He’s top-four in the league in PER (first), Win Shares per 48 minutes (first), blocks per game (first), points per game (fourth) and Offensive Win Shares (first).

Fear the Brow.

1. Damian Lillard: 6^th overall pick

There are a lot of things you can say about Lillard: he’s a dangerous shooter, he gets to the line and he may be the most fearless dude in the league. My favorite thing about him, though, is watching him feast in the clutch. Already in possesion of an impressive list of awards, this former Rookie of the Year and reigning third team All-NBA player  has thrived since day one. While some people questioned his ceiling coming out of college, he’s made major strides each season in the league. Knowing Lillard, the recent all-star snubbing will only fuel the fire for him to continue to grow as a player.

1. Draymond Green: 35^th overall pick

Green has taken the league by storm in his third season. He’s leading the league in defensive rating and defensive win shares, and is likely the front runner in this year’s Defensive Player of the Year race. There is just so much to like about him: his effort level and attitude are both infectious, his basketball IQ is off the charts and he’s funny as hell.

This second round pick is about to get paid.

1. Andre Drummond: 9^th overall pick

Drummond slid a bit in the draft after an underwhelming freshman year at UConn but he’s well on his way to becoming one of the best big men in the league. He’s struggled as a featured part of the offense this season but he’s an absolute athletic freak and a monster rebounder. He’s second in the league in rebounds per game, first in rebounding percentage, seventh in defensive rating and eighth in blocks.

1. Jonas Valanciunas: 5^th overall pick (2011 draft)

Although he was part of the 2011 draft class, he’s actually a third-year player, so I’m taking the liberty of adding him to this list. He’s only playing a paltry 26.3 minutes per game this season, but he’s improved in nearly every statistical category. Offensively he’s got great touch around the rim (56.4 FG%), he converts when he gets to the free-throw line (81.0 FT %) and his true-shooting percentage is fifth highest in the league.

Defensively, Valanciunas still has work to do when it comes to weak side rotations, which is why he often sits much of the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, he’s an above average rim protector and is 11th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

1. Bradley Beal: 3^rd overall pick

Beal hasn’t quite made the leap that many expected after a stellar playoff performance, but he’s still only 21 years old and, my word, he can shoot! He’s got an absolutely beautiful release and he’s sixth in the league in three-point percentage. The problem right now is he’s taking too many mid-range jump shots within Randy Wittman’s offense and not enough threes.

Beal’s a stand-up guy and he and John Wall seem to have a good chemistry, so I expect to see him shoot up this list in years to come.

1. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 2^nd overall pick

Kidd-Gilchrist doesn’t exactly shine statistically but he makes the Hornets a much better team. He’s an elite defender, a very good rebounder and a tireless worker. He dedicated himself to improving his broken jump shot this summer with Mark Price and, while he still has no three-point shot to speak of, he’s quietly shooting well from midrange this season.

1. Harrison Barnes: 7^th overall pick

Moving back into the starting lineup has done wonders for Barnes’ game. His sophomore season was, by all accounts, one to forget. He shot a laughable 39.9 percent from the field and his PER dropped below ten. This season he’s righted the ship, shooting almost 50 percent from the field and 43.3 from beyond the arc (eighth overall in the league). Moreover, he’s improved as a rebounder, plays hard on defense and rarely turns the ball over.

1. Jared Sullinger: 21^st overall pick

Sullinger’s attempt to turn himself into a stretch-four really isn’t going well (29.3 3P%), but Big Body Sully is an effective player inside the arc. He’s shooting 59 percent when less than five-feet from the rim and he’s one of the better offensive rebounders in the league. Sullinger needs to realize that his effectiveness around the rim is his meal ticket in this league.

10. Tyler Zeller: 17^th overall pick

Zeller is probably never going to be the defender or rebounder that you want him to be but he plays within his means and he’s become one of the most efficient players in the league this season. While he doesn’t have the sexiest game in the league, I expect him to be a quality player for years to come.

All data courteousy of Basketball Reference.