Bracketology: Can the Virginia Cavaliers survive without Justin Anderson?

Bracketology: Without star guard Justin Anderson for the next four to six weeks, can the Virginia Cavaliers remain a top seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Virginia Cavaliers guard Justin Anderson will miss the next four to six weeks after a fractured finger on his shooting hand forced Anderson to have surgery on Sunday, according to ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan.

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Anderson is averaging 13.2 points per game and is the Cavaliers second-leading scorer behind Malcolm Brogdon. Anderson also is Virginia’s best 3-point shooter, by percentage, and has made nearly 50 percent of his 3-point attempts this season.

Virginia already struggles a bit offensively. They aren’t the worst team in the country, but they do have their limitations. Currently, Virginia ranks 176th in the country in points per game at 67.6 PPG, but that’s more due to their defense and slow pace than a lack of offensive execution or talent.

Virginia will have a hard time replacing Anderson’s offensive production; however, I’m a little more skeptical about how Virginia will replace Anderson’s defense and leadership.

Anderson is their senior leader and the best defender on the best defense in the country.

As a team, Virginia should be able to compensate for Anderson’s defensive abilities, but it’s the individual matchups with some of the best players in the country that’s keep Tony Bennett up at night.

Losing Anderson is a major blow to the Tony Bennett’s third-ranked team in the country, and quite possibly, the second-best team in college basketball. Depending on how fast he recovers from surgery, Anderson could be back by the ACC Tournament on March 10-14, which is exactly four weeks from Anderson’s surgery.

There’s no question the loss of Anderson is going to have a negative impact on the Cavaliers, but will it ruin their season?

Where Virginia stands now

Currently, Virginia is 21-1 for the season and 9-1 in ACC play. The Cavaliers also have a two-game lead in the ACC with only eight games to play.

If the season ended today, Virginia would be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and, likely, the second-overall seed in the tournament.

Remaining: Schedule:

Feb. 11: @ NC State (14-10)

Feb. 14: vs. Wake Forest (11-13)

Feb. 16: vs. Pittsburgh (16-8)

Feb. 22: vs. Florida State (13-11)

Feb. 25: @ Wake Forest (11-13)

Feb. 28: vs. Virginia Tech (9-14)

Mar. 2: @ Syracuse (15-8)

Mar. 7: @ Louisville (19-4)

Going forward, Virginia has a fairly easy schedule. On paper, the only games I could see Virginia struggling in are at NC State, at Syracuse, and at Louisville.

Even if Virginia were to lose those three games and win all the others against the middle-to-bottom teams in the ACC, Virginia would still have a very good chance of winning the conference. As I mentioned, Virginia already has a two-game lead (loss column) in the conference over Notre Dame, North Carolina, Duke, and Louisville.

There is no way any of those teams will go undefeated throughout the rest of the conference season, which means the second-place team will have at least four losses. If Virginia loses those three games and ties with one of the four teams directly behind them, the Cavaliers would get a share of the conference championship, at least.

That would make two-straight ACC championships for Tony Bennett, which would be remarkable considering the talent in the ACC, especially this season.

In order for Virginia to go at least 5-3 in their last four conference games, someone is going to have to step up and help replace Anderson.

Who will step up?

In Anderson’s absence, Virginia’s freshmen guards Marial Shayok and Devon Hall will likely see some of Anderson’s minutes in the backcourt. Tony Bennett will also likely just increase the each player’s minutes slightly to help cover for Anderson.

Here are the three players who Bennett should look to replace Anderson’s production:

Malcolm Brogdon

13.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.6 APG

Brogdon is Virginia’s leading scorer, averaging 13.7 points per game on 44 percent shooting and 36 percent from 3-point range.

Brogdon is a much more dynamic scorer than Anderson. Brogdon is like Jazz; Anderson is like hard rock.

With Anderson out, Brogdon has to be more assertive and take control of games down the stretch. I don’t necessarily think that Brogdon needs to be the one shooting every possession, but he needs to touch the ball every possession to keep the defense honest and to force the defense to react.

Without Anderson in the second half, the Cavaliers didn’t play half as well as they did in the first half, but Brogdon did score 11 of his 15 points in the second half to carry Virginia to the win.

That’s the kind of performance Virginia is going to need from in almost every game from here on out.

Anthony Gill

11.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.9 APG

Gill is Virginia’s third-leading scorer, and he’s one of their most athletic players.

At 6-8, 230 pounds, Gill is the perfect power forward for college basketball, especially with his leaping ability.

Gill is limited offensively, but with the extra touches available since Anderson is out, I could see Bennett trying to get Gill the ball even more than usual.

Giving Gill more touches doesn’t necessarily mean that his game or scoring will improve, though. Gill needs the ball in advantageous situations to score, and he usually gets to those spots by using his size and quickness to make timely cuts to the basket.

London Perrantes

5.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 4.6 APG

Perrantes is Virginia’s floor general. As the point guard, he sets the tone offensively and defensively.

Perrantes doesn’t score much, but that’s because Virginia’s offense relies on ball movement to create buckets. Perrantes gets the ball out of his hands, basically, as soon as Virginia gets in their half court set. And, if he gets the ball back, Perrantes is looking to give it up unless he has an open jumper.

It’s not that Perrantes can’t do more offensively; he just hasn’t needed to do more… until now.

Of all Virginia’s players, Perrantes needs to step up without Anderson. Right now, Perrantes is only shooting 32 percent from 3-point range. He’s a much better shooter than his percentage indicates.

If Perrantes can find his stroke and be a touch more assertive on the offensive end, I think Virginia can realistically survive the rest of their schedule and be just fine when Anderson returns, hopefully, in time for the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

If not, well, Virginia might be in a bit of trouble and could get bounced out of that No. 1 seed.

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