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Fantasy Football: Cashing In On Rookie Fever In Dynasty Leagues

By Bruce Matson

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Nov 30, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Bishop Sankey (20) during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Rookie fever is about to spread and infect the dynasty community like it does every year. I have seen some ridiculous trades due to rookie fever, and there will be more crazy trades to come this year. People love the lust of some of the new rookies and are willing to toss away a talented prospect that they drafted highly the year before to get a crack at the new shipment of rookies. I’m going to go over some talented prospects from last year’s draft that you may be able to get on discount. If you are looking to sell your rookie pick for a player that you want, then you should keep in mind that your rookie picks will be worth more when it comes draft day. Talented players are falling in the draft and owners will be competing for your pick to get the opportunity to draft the most talented prospect currently on their draft board. Some of these deals are more than likely capable of happening come draft day when your pick is on the clock, and we have more knowledge of this rookie class. Keep in mind that if the owner you’re trying to deal with is very patient with their players and has a good idea of what their player is valued at, then you are more than likely not going to get some of these players on the cheap. The goal here is to try and capture some of the prospects that you like with a discount due to the inflation in value for rookie picks.

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Donte Moncrief WR IND

Moncrief is a player who flashed a couple times during the season, and he had a lot of owners hoping that he would break out at the end of the season, which didn’t happen. The Colts just signed CFL stand out Duron Carter to a 3 year, $1.57 million deal. Duron Carter had a lot of buzz around him over which team he was going to sign with, and the addition of Carter to the Colts might make the Moncrief owner feel a little nervous. Throw in the fact that he didn’t produce at the end of the season when the fantasy community was expecting him to when the Colts wide receivers were banged up, and he had the perfect opportunity to take a strangle hold of the starting wide receiver positon on the other side of T.Y Hilton. This will make Moncrief a buy low canidate because rookie fever will soon set in to a lot of owners, and a mid-late 1st round rookie pick might be enough for you to grab Moncrief off of a nervous owner. Duron Carter is not a factor to Moncrief’s success; Moncrief will be the factor to his own success in the NFL. He is more talented and the Colts have a lot more invested in him. Carter didn’t get a signing bonus when he signed with the Colts, so the Colts can basically cut ties with him with hardly any cap penalties. Moncrief has everything you want in a wide receiver prospect. He has excellent combine metrics He’s big at 6’2 221, and he produced at a young age in college. The best time to buy Moncrief might be when you are on the clock, because that is when your pick is the most valuable and rookie fever is at its highest. Prospects are falling in the draft and owners are dying to get back in the first round, so there is opportunity to score Moncrief with a late 1st.

Carlos Hyde RB SF

Hyde was one of the top running backs drafted in last year’s draft, and I feel he’s going to be lost in the shuffle when it comes to the new recruits of running backs coming into the league this year. Hyde looked very good this year. He’s a bigger back with some burst to his game, and he’s playing for a power run team. Reports are saying that the 49ers are going to re-install the read option into their offense, and Hyde will benefit from this. Hyde was very successful with the read option at Ohio State, and he has a lot of experience playing in the scheme. Hyde is another player that you might be able to get with a mid-late first round pick once rookie fever sets in. There’s going to be a lot of flashy new running backs in this year’s rookie draft, and many of them will be in some great situations. If you really like Hyde, then you might be able to get him during your rookie draft when popular prospects start falling in the draft.

Brandin Cooks WR NOS

Cooks is a very under-rated wide receiver, and he has experienced a drop in value since he finished the season on the IR. Cooks has the skill set and situation that merits him to be drafted in the top 5 of this year’s rookie draft. When it comes closer to draft day, Cooks might be obtainable with a late first round rookie pick, which is a huge value. Cooks was drafted by the Saints in the first round (20th overall), and he’s going to be a major piece to their pass happy offense. Cooks is only 21 years old, and he’s going to be a PPR monster for a long time going forward.

Bishop Sankey RB TEN

Sankey was the first running back taken in a lot of rookie drafts last year, but he didn’t fare too well during his rookie season, finishing the year with only rushing for 569 yards with 3.7 yards per carry. With his onboarding being a rough transition from college to the NFL, this will create a value for Sankey. There’s going to be some owners down on Sankey and wanting to sell him. This is going to create an excellent buying opportunity for you if you want to buy Sankey for a discount compared to last year’s rookie prices, which was a top 5 rookie pick in a lot of leagues. Sankey could be sold for a late-1st to a mid-2nd round pick. You might be able to acquire Sankey for a late 1st right now, but you might have to wait until you are on the clock in your rookie draft if you are going to have a chance to land him with a 2nd round rookie pick. I think it could be possible if the owner is down him. I don’t believe Sankey is a slam dunk prospect, but he is in a good situation where he doesn’t have much competition. He was a high draft pick for the Titans, and they are going to give him every opportunity to succeed.

Derek Carr QB Oak

If you are in need of a QB and don’t want to pay an arm and a leg, then Carr will be a great option for you. Carr finished his rookie season throwing for 21 TDs and 12 INTs, which is phenomenal for rookie QB playing for a struggling franchise. Usually those numbers are flipped around and the rookie QB is throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Raiders are $56 mil under the cap, and they are going to build their team around Carr. They also have the 4th pick in the draft, which will give them some equity to get some good, talented young players. Carr could be had for a 2nd-3rd round rookie pick. You could get Carr with a 2nd round pick now, and if you wanted to get him for a 3rd round pick, you may need to wait until you’re on the clock during your rookie draft.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB

Seferian-Jenkins is flying very low under the radar right now. Like most rookie tight ends, Jenkins didn’t produce enough to be fantasy relevant, which would put a bad taste in a lot of dynasty owners mouths. Typically tight ends don’t produce during the first couple seasons of their career because there is a lot for them to learn at the NFL level. The Bucs are currently in the position where they are more likely drafting a new QB in this year’s draft, which doesn’t look good for Jenkins’ short term value. ASJ is a very talented TE prospect; he is very comparable to Rob Gronkowski when it comes to athletic ability. Last year ASJ would have cost you anywhere from late-1st to a mid-2nd . Now I bet you could get him for a 3rd round draft pick. A 3rd round pick is a great deal because this draft will not be as deep as last year’s, and you won’t land a comparable prospect to Jenkins.

Need help with a trade for your dynasty team? Ask me on Twitter @bmatz08 and I will help you with your team.

Next: First Round Rookie Mock Draft

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