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Fantasy Football Offseason: The Learning Curve

By Chris Brent

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In an article a few weeks back, I wrote a piece about what you are supposed to be doing during the offseason, and the first thing that I talked about in that piece was writing down what you have learned. My tip was to write down everything that you have learned from season-to-season, and that’s what I’m going to do in this piece. In the learning curve, we will dive into tips that should help you figure out what you’ve learned this fantasy season.

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Every year we all make mistakes, meaning we will all miss on the occasional player. It happens, but the question is: why did we miss on that player? Its tough to place, but hopefully reading this article points you in the right direction to figuring out what you did wrong.

Things I learned this year:

Jan 4, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard (25) gets away from Indianapolis Colts free safety LaRon Landry (30) in the first half in the 2014 AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

#1: Don’t fall into love with last year’s players who won you games  

So two years ago, I won the league championship and I fell into a trap with loving Giovani Bernard. I loved Giovani Bernard so much that I traded away Jamaal Charles for a first round pick, and that move lost me the championship last year. See, because I was in a keeper league, I feel in love with the talent that Giovani Bernard possessed and as we know now, he can’t handle the number one workload.

My tip: Don’t fall in love with the talent. Believe in what you see, and if you must fall in love, fall in love with winning your league.

Dec 7, 2014; Nashville, TN, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr (13) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at LP Field. Mandatory Credit: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports

#2: Don’t buy into hype, it happens to me once every season and it shouldn’t.

Before this year, I would spend hours analyzing other’s rankings and checking how high they were on certain players and sometimes I would adjust my rankings to fit in with the majority. I shouldn’t have done it. Two year ago, I fell into the C.J. Spiller hype late in the preseason and this year I bought into the Montee Ball hype. This year, I’ll refuse to do that. I will only go with my thoughts and my opinions, and we will avoid my terrible first round mistakes. Watch out! Odell Beckham Jr, is setting up to become that terrifying overhyped player this season.

My tip: Remember, if you do your homework, everyone knows just as much as you do when it comes to fantasy football. If you have a gut call on a player and it’s not reflecting in someone else’s rankings, then take him and trust yourself.

#3: Running back will always be thin and you’ll pay dearly for the top priced options in your drafts every year.

I’m like you guys. I don’t get paid to do this, and this is something I love. Like you, I have discussions with my friends on draft approaches, players they liked, and of course, what approach that they would take during the waiver wire that week. However, my friends are out on drafting running backs in the first round and I’ll tell you that it’s a mistake. Right now, I have eight running backs ranked in my top-12 players, and I completely believe that you have to take one if you want a shot to win. Of course, there are weird things that happen, like picking up Tre Mason or Zac Stacy in the previous season.

My tip: Don’t be afraid of running backs in the first round. If you can hit on that position, then you will be in a better position to win your league. I don’t like the drafting back-to-back running back approach, but I definitely think you need a top running back to win this year.

Nov 23, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver Justin Hunter (15) can

#4: Study sleeper situations more than ever before

I have made some great sleeper calls over the past few years. Alfred Morris and Jordan Cameron come to mind, but I wasn’t able to hit it this season. Why? This happened because I didn’t really understand the situation that the sleeper’s would be in and that cost me. For example, this year I loved Justin Hunter coming into the season and that was a mistake.

My tip: Analyze everything. For example, in the Justin Hunter situation, I should have realized that with a rookie quarterback, his weight, and his poor route running, that he wouldn’t develop into anything this year. I should have realized that much sooner and I didn’t.

Next: Five Offseason Storylines To Watch

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