Will Manchester United qualify for the Champions League?

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Will Manchester United be able to move up the table to qualify for the Champions League?

For Manchester United, failing to qualify for this season’s Champions League was endemic of their sharp demise following the departure of long-term manager Sir Alex Ferguson. Under the new leadership of David Moyes they stuttered to a seventh-place finish in the Premier League, missing out on European qualification altogether.

This season, the revival is well and truly under way at United, as represented by their improved league position. Currently occupying third place in the Premier League table, the possibility of last season being confined to simply a temporary blip is becoming increasingly likely.

Despite returning to the upper echelon of the English game, the fight for Champions League qualification is as fiercely competitive as ever. Seven sides will consider themselves serious contenders for the top four spots, all seeing a finish outside of the top four as a disastrous season.

Van Gaal seems to view his role as a long-term project

In this overview, we will take a look through the most important areas for Man United heading into this season defining period of games. We will look from a tactical and personnel perspective, as well as highlighting which of the other sides pose the most urgent threat to Manchester United’s Champions League ambitions.

Tactical Focus

Striking a Balance

Sep 5, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Columbia striker Falcao before a game against Brazil in the first half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Man United are blessed with a wealth of attacking talent, so much so that they were able to allow the likes of Javier Hernandez and Nani out on loan at the start of the season. Sometimes having so many options, which initially seems like a manager’s dream, can create problems with team selection.

Strikers are often form players of which both Robin van Persie and Radamal Falcao are prime examples. When they are sharp and confident they are finishing machines. Van Persie’s 26 goals in the 2012-13 season launched United to the title and yet this season has only managed to hit the net nine teams.

Consistency in selection often helps struggling strikers and both Falcao and van Persie would benefit from building more of a relationship with the creative players in the side. There have been a huge number of new, top-level faces incorporated into the Man United squad and settling on a starting 11 will only serve to speed up this transition.

The output of the likes of Juan Mata and Angel di Maria in terms of creating chances is second to none, with both having built their reputation of having that reading of the game and manufacturing chances.

However, neither have performed to a sufficiently consistent level for United this season, causing van Gaal to chop and change his selection.

Settling on a Formation

Personally I am surprised that a manager with the reputation of Louis van Gaal, known to be a stickler for detail, has yet to settle of a certain formation.

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  • United vary between 3 and 4 at the back and that must be difficult for the players to rotate between when they are so used to a standard 4 man defensive unit.

    I accept the argument that these are players from the top drawer of the world game and therefore they should be able to apply themselves in a number of different roles. However, in some positions in particular, I have a degree of sympathy with the players.

    Wide players at United have had to rotate between the conventional left and right midfield positions, which most are accustomed to, as well as playing as wing-backs in 3 back formations, a vastly different task.

    Whilst some players, like Ashley Young, have thrived under the new system that demands more defensive responsibility as will as increased fitness to match with the higher work rate, others have found the change more difficult. Luke Shaw’s lack of fitness was much publicised at the start of the season, as he struggled to get to grips with the demanding left wing-back role.

    The direction of the modern game does appear to be leaning towards increased flexibility and mobility, something which is illustrated perfectly by Bayern Munich, who play a fluid and somewhat unique style. For top sides it is undoubtedly a great asset to be able to vary formations and styles and this is clearly what van Gaal has in mind as he builds for the future.

    My major reservation at this point in time is that Man United seem like a club that would benefit from a bit more stability, especially on the pitch. Van Gaal seems to view his role as a long-term project, so I think he would do well to use this season to rebuild the confidence and belief, waiting until he has these foundations before cracking the whip.

    Player and Positional Focus

    Goalkeepers

    Jul 23, 2014; Pasadena, CA, USA; Manchester United goalkeeper David De Gea (1) warms up prior to the game between the Los Angeles Galaxy and Manchester United at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

    For all Man United’s defensive frailties, to have conceded the third lowest number goals so far in the Premier League is an astonishing achievement. David de Gea‘s performances have provoked the attention of a host of top sides and notably Spanish giants Real Madrid seem to have earmarked the 24 year old as Iker Casillas’ successor.

    He has put in a number of match winning displays and has developed an affinity for crucial saves at crucial times. It is unusual for a Man United goalkeeper to be so involved on a weekly basis, but it has allowed de Gea to show himself to be one of the top goalkeepers in the Premier League.

    With the arrival of fellow Spaniard Victor Valdes in January, United now have a vastly experienced back-up. Cynics might argue that van Gaal is preparing for the sale of de Gea in the summer, but they would have to be crazy to let one of their most important players leave.

    Midfielders

    Louis van Gaal has been open about his desire to bring in a midfielder in the summer transfer window and it was somewhat surprising that he refrained from a move in January, perhaps waiting for the right player to become available, or even avoiding paying above the odds.

    He has spoken of seeking a balance in midfield and that is one thing that United are visibly missing. The majority of their midfielders are of the attacking persuasion and there is no real anchor in midfield to counterbalance this.

    The role of Nemanja Matic at Chelsea displays how a disciplined central midfielder allows the rest of the team more licence for creativity and attacking freedom.

    many see Rooney as a perfect central midfielder in the later years of his career

    Marouanne Fellaini was seen as a midfield enforcer for much of his time at Everton, yet he has been used more often as a presence higher up the field in recent years. When operating in a deeper role for United, his passing distribution has been lacking and his chance in this role seems to have gone.

    New signing Daley Blind can also move into the centre of midfield but probably lacks the physicality of a top class ball winning midfielder. With his versatility and also an eye for goal, he is certainly an asset to Man United, but does not offer that security that could be provided by the likes of Kevin Strootman or even a Sergio Busquets.

    Wayne Rooney

    Jul 26, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Manchester United forward Wayne Rooney (10) during the first half versus AS Roma at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

    Reports coming out of Manchester United seem to suggest Wayne Rooney is happy with his role in the side. The club captain, who also wears the armband for the National Team, has been deployed in central midfield more recently, as opposed to as a striker where he has spent the majority of his career.

    It is a measure of Rooney’s professionalism these days that he simply gets his head down and helps the team when necessary and he certainly possesses the attributes to make an impact in midfield. At 29, however, you wouldn’t blame Rooney for being a little disgruntled at being moved down the pitch.

    Many see Rooney as a perfect central midfielder in his later years as a footballer, but that was slated as being when he entered his late 30’s, rather than late 20’s. He has been quietly effective for many years at United and by moving him out of the attacking line United might be sacrificing more than they think.

    He has reached double figures in goals every season without fail for the entirety of his decade at Man United and from a creative perspective he is not far behind in his assists tally.

    Rooney may have developed into a player who no longer grabs the headlines, but he can still have a huge impact in the latter half of the season if he is pushed back up field.

    Challengers

    Last month I wrote a speculative piece titled; EPL Title race analysis, is it over already? One of my conclusions, which is a popular one amongst Premier League fans, is that it is now a two-horse race for the title. In my eyes only Chelsea and Man City will mount a realistic title challenge.

    That doesn’t mean that the chase for the remaining two Champions League spots are anywhere near a foregone conclusion, as fives sides look set to battle it out for the coveted top four places.

    Southampton

    Southampton is the surprise package currently occupying the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot. The fact that they are somewhat of an unknown quantity in these situations makes them as dangerous as they are unpredictable.

    They seem to show no signs of fading as the season progresses and their squad harmony, at least from the outside, looks to be impenetrable. Ronald Koeman has done an incredible job, turning a side that many thought were in for a relegation scrap into a side that could well finish in the top four.

    Their lack of experience when things get tense could count against them, as other sides have been here before and bought the t-shirt. The focus will be on not getting carried away and continuing to play the same brand of soccer that has got them so much success so far this season.

    Arsenal

    Arsenal always seem to make the top four, no matter how well or poorly they start the season, they find a way. In many ways this will be their most competitive chase for a place in the Champions League for many years and it will truly test the credentials of their squad.

    It will be interesting to see how much pressure mounts on the shoulders of Arsene Wenger if Arsenal continue to sit just shy of a top four spot. They will know that Southampton are likely to enter a tricky patch and the London side will be ready to capitalise.

    Tottenham

    Tottenham have returned to being the side that is getting people excited and their recent run of form has thrown them into the running for a Champions League spot, currently sitting only three points off the pace. They have come close before, painfully close at times, and these memories might motivate them into making amends.

    Harry Kane has lit up the Premier League with his displays leading the Tottenham line, but you have to worry what will happen to their form if Kane experiences a lull that is surely inevitable. So far the young striker seems capable of catalysing his side into a strong top four chase and it will be fascinating to see how long he can maintain his form.

    Liverpool

    Perhaps predictably Liverpool have struggled this season after their bitter-sweet second place finish in the Premier League last year. Essentially having one hand on the trophy, missing out was a major disappointment that seemed to leak into the start of this season.

    However, recent form suggests that they are returning to close to their old level and the return of Daniel Sturridge could well inspire a late chase for a top four spot. We saw last season how when Liverpool are performing at their best, the can be unplayable and Brendan Rodgers will be hoping for a similar run to end this season.

    Verdict

    When looking at the league table, Manchester United has seemingly progressed significantly from their struggles of last season. Even at the start of this season, where they managed only 13 points from 10 games, they have improved at picking up points and winning games.

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    Their performance levels will still be a major worry for fans, however, as their level has been a far-cry from the side that dominated the Premier League for over a decade.

    The air of invincibility at Old Trafford will take some rebuilding, but qualifying for the Champions League will represent a major step to achieving this.

    Despite their indifferent form, Louis van Gaal seems to be instilling a winning mentality at Man United and I think that this will carry them through to a top four finish.

    There will be some big games between now and the end of the season that will shape their hunt for a Champions League place, but with the strength of their squad and some tactical expertise from van Gaal, I think that they will finish third in the Premier League this season.

    Final Position Prediction: 3rd 

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