Giovani Bernard experienced a value shift last season due to the emergence of rookie running back Jeremy Hill. Bernard was one of the top backs to own last year during startup drafts. Bernard flashed his talent during his rookie season in 2013 and left the fantasy community salivating with the potential up-side to be one of the top backs in the NFL.
Sep 14, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard (25) celebrates a touchdown in the second quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Bernard went to college at the University of North Carolina. He tore his ACL during practice in 2010, so he was redshirted during his freshman year. He then bounced backed in 2011 (age 20) to rush for 1,253 yards and 13 touchdowns while catching 45 passes for 362 yards and 1 TD, which accounted for 31.59% of North Carolina’s offense. In 2012 (age 21) Bernard rushed for 1,228 yards and 12 touchdowns while hauling in 47 receptions for 490 yards and 5 touchdowns during 10 games of his sophomore season. He also averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Bernard was very productive in college. He owned a large market share of the team’s offensive output, and he broke out in college at a young age (age 20). Bernard’s college production is one of the reasons why he was the first running back selected in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Bernard is listed at 5’8, 202 pounds, and during the 2013 combine, Bernard ran a 4.50 40 yard dash, 6.91 3-cone, and jumped a 33.5 inch vertical. Bernard’s combine measurables are average. With his size being barely over 200 pounds, he would need to have ran in the 4.3’s to the low 4.4’s to be considered a premier prospect. A vertical of 33.5″ suggests that Bernard lacks explosiveness. Bernard’s combine metrics are not bad, and they don’t show that he can’t perform in the NFL, but they do indicate that he’s not going to be the next Adrian Peterson or LeSean McCoy. Even though his combine metrics raise a red flag that he may not be a premier running back, Bernard’s combine workout still shows that he is athletic enough to contribute on your fantasy team.
This is one of those players where the metrics don’t add up to the tape. When watching him play, he looks like he’s faster than a 4.50 40 time. He also looks more explosive then what he measured out at the combine as well. Bernard tested well in the 3-cone and that shows his ability to swiftly move laterally and switch directions.
During his rookie season in 2013, Bernard rushed for 695 yards and 5 touchdowns while catching 56 passes for 514 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bernard looked like he was going to have a strong year in 2014 until he had a hip injury which caused him to miss 3 games. During that time span, rookie running back Jeremy Hill made the most of his opportunity and ran away with the starting running back position for the Bengals. Bernard finished the season with 680 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns while catching 43 passes for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns.
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Jeremy Hill is a 3-down back who is very talented. It appears that Hill is going to get the majority of the touches going into the 2015 season because he is a bigger back who fits offensive coordinator Hue Jackson’s system.
I still like Bernard in PPR leagues because he is still going to be used in the passing game. Even with Hill taking away a good portion of the workload, I can see Bernard catching 40-50 balls in a season. The Bengals didn’t draft Hill because they didn’t like what they had in Bernard. They drafted Hill because they didn’t like how Andy Dalton was developing, and they wanted to use more of a power run game to hide some of Dalton’s inefficiencies. They drafted Bernard and Tyler Eifert in 2013 to help Dalton open up the passing game, but Dalton wasn’t developing well enough for that, so they drafted a bigger back and are moving towards a power run scheme. That being said, the Bengals like Bernard and they still are going to figure out ways to use him in their weekly game plans.
Being part of committee might be good for Bernard because he’s not built to handle a full workload, which would help his longevity in the league because he will be taking less punishment. I think he is a sneaky buy low right now because he’s very athletic and he doesn’t need a large volume of touches to be fantasy relevant for your team. He’s going to be used in the passing game and receive a lot of PPR points. A lot of fantasy owners are down on him currently because of Hill’s large involvement in the offense. If you like Bernard, you might be able to snag him with a late-1st to a mid-2nd round rookie pick.
I think Bernard can still be a solid RB2 on your fantasy team, and will have RB1 upside if Hill goes down with an injury. Bernard is a safe investment because we know that the Bengals are not going to invest in another running back since they spent two 2nd round picks on running backs two years in a row. Bernard has a lot of years left ahead of him due to him only being 23 years old. Even with a decreased amount of touches, Bernard is going to be a dependable RB2 due to his involvement in the passing game.
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