How the Isaiah Thomas Trade Fits into the Celtics’ Rebuild

Feb 23, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas reacts in the fourth quarter against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. The Celtics defeats the Suns 115-110. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

On the surface, the trade that sent Isaiah Thomas to the Celtics didn’t make a lot of sense. Danny Ainge had spent the last several months moving guys like Jeff Green and Rajon Rondo in his quest to acquire every pick in the draft, while at the same time insisting on not taking on any multi-year contracts in return.

Thus, when Danny Ainge acquired Thomas in exchange for a first-round pick at the trade deadline, it seemed a bit counterintuitive. Grantland’s Andrew Sharpe had this to say on the subject for example:

"I just can’t understand whether the Celtics are tanking or not. If they are going for the eighth seed … why? If they are trying to land in the top five, why trade for Thomas? Giving up the Cavs pick is not as big of a deal as “first-round pick” sounds, but still. Adding a scoring combo guard to Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in any context, and especially not one in which the goal is to rebuild through the draft."

The thing is, Danny Ainge is rebuilding through the draft, but only kind of. According to Ian Thomsen, “Over the next five drafts he could have access to 26 picks, including as many as 12 in the first round.” While it’s hard to know exactly how the collection of protected draft picks will shake out, ESPNBoston Celtics reporter, Chris Forsberg, argues that the mostly likely scenario for the next two drafts is as follows:

• 2 first-round picks in 2015 (Celtics, Clippers); 3 second-round picks (Celtics, 76ers, Wizards)
• 3 first-round picks in 2016 (Celtics, Nets, Mavericks); 5 second-round picks (76ers, Wolves, Heat, Cavaliers, Mavericks)

However, unlike Philly GM Sam Hinkie, who seems to be focused on acquiring star-level talent through the top of the draft, Ainge’s focus is less on drafting the next superstar and more on accumulating assets which can ultimately be flipped for proven, star-level talent. He’s banking on his shrewd negotiation skills, the allure of the storied Celtics franchise, his past experience of successfully moving five nickels for a quarter (see: Kevin Garnett) and the ability of his small trusted team of talent evaluators to find hidden gems later in the draft.

Thus, with that in mind, the Isaiah Thomas trade makes perfect sense. He provides an infusion of scoring to a team sorely in need, but more importantly, he’s playing on a front-loaded bargain contract; making him a potentially highly valued and moveable asset down the line.

That’s not to say that Ainge is in a hurry to move Thomas. In fact, Ainge likes Thomas so much that he made a midnight call to him back in July to kick off the free agency period, despite not having the available cap space to sign him. On a good team, Thomas is probably best suited as a feisty scoring punch off the bench. In the meantime, however, he’ll collect buckets like an episode of Hoarders as a featured player in Boston’s scoring-starved offense.

No matter what happens, Thomas makes sense within Ainge’s grand plan. It seems against everything that we know about “tanking” and rebuilding that the Celtics don’t seem especially concerned that they are dangerously close to landing the dreaded eighth seed in the East. But, as Ainge proves through the way he lives his life in general, he’s not afraid to march to the beat of his own drum and there is more than one way to skin a cat. He’s a competitor and maintaining a culture focused on winning, even in a rebuild, is important to both Ainge and head coach Brad Stevens.

There’s certainly no guarantee that Ainge’s asset-focused plan will pay dividends. Currently, the roster consists of some nice young players but, with the possible exception of defensive stalwart Marcus Smart, no foreseeable stars. Despite their lack of star talent, they’re not bad enough to give themselves a good statistical probability of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft. Moreover, while relying on their ability to find building blocks or moveable assets like Rondo, Al Jefferson and Jared Sullinger later in the draft has worked in the past, it’s certainly no guarantee of keeping them out of basketball purgatory moving forward.

Ainge is a life-long competitor and an industrious GM who has faith in himself and his team to deliver winning basketball once again to the city of Boston. It’s certainly easy to understand why some people are scratching their heads at the strange trajectory of Ainge’s rebuild plan, but if history is any predictor of future success, I wouldn’t bet against him.