Oklahoma State—Big 12
If Oklahoma State can get past Oklahoma in their third meeting (the Sooners won both previous meetings), then they face either Texas Tech, Texas or Iowa State. Smart money is on the Hawkeyes, who are 12-6 in the conference, which is one game better than Texas Tech and Texas’ combined win total of 11.
Upsets happen though, so the Cowboys could face one of the Texas schools, which makes this much easier.
Oklahoma State has just two double-digit shooters in Le’Bryan Nash and Phil Forte, but Anthony Hickey hits 40 percent of his 3-point shots and he takes a lot of 3-point shots (135 this season). So if he can get going, it takes some of the pressure off Nash and Forte, who is a very good 3-point shooter himself.
Oklahoma State is another team which can hold an offense down defensively, averaging just 62.3 points allowed this season and they have outscored opponents in the second halves of games, 1,086 to 981. They rebound well—particularly on the defensive end—which cuts down on second chance points.
If they can choke off the point totals for the teams they face, Oklahoma State has just enough firepower to take a few teams down that they really shouldn’t.
Maybe even Kansas could be one of them. After all, they beat Kansas once already this season 67-62.
Why it won’t happen:
While they throttled their opponents for a while, they’ve struggled to do that against many of the better teams in the conference. West Virginia scored 81 and 73 points on them. Iowa State dropped 70 on them in the second loss they gave the Cowboys.
Even 4-win TCU was able to drop 70 points on this offense. As good as it can be, it often isn’t. At the end of the day, Oklahoma State just doesn’t have the weapons on offense or defense to be counted upon to come up with a big win in a spotlight like a major tournament.
Next: NC State—ACC