Arizona State—Pac12
There’s actually a lot to like about the Sun Devils’ situation in the Pac-12 Tournament. They’ve won four out of their last six games. They are shooting 44.8 percent from the floor and are out-rebounding teams on the offensive glass.
More than anything else though, they’ve already beaten the fourth seed, UCLA—the team they’d have to play if they (excuse me, when they) beat USC in the first round Tuesday. That doesn’t guarantee anything of course, but UCLA is not the force it once was and there’s no doubt in my mind that the Sun Devils would be a match for the Bruins.
They split with in-state rival Arizona, who would likely be their next opponent, unless Cal or Washington State manage a surprise (doubtful). That’s a tougher game, but not impossible to imagine ASU winning. Then it’s all a matter of who comes out of the other bracket. Oregon and Utah are both beatable teams, and Arizona State has just enough weapons to make things interesting.
And if, by some twist of fate, a team like Washington or Oregon State made the final, ASU could absolutely walk away with a win.
The key will be Arizona, as that is a rivalry game and they are incredibly tricky to predict. The worst team on the planet will give a rival a tougher match than many of the best teams because the hate is there.
Why it won’t happen:
Arizona State doesn’t put up that many points (69.5 per game) compared to what they let up (66.3) and they are also barely able to out-rebound their opponents (34.3 a game versus 30.9, much of which came in non-conference games).
And as inconsistent as UCLA has been, they can be very dangerous. On top of all that, ASU is not good from 3-point range (just 35 percent) which isn’t a huge problem, unless opponents jam the inside on them. If you do that, the Sun Devils are apt to be forced to play a game they are not good at.
Which is what we expect anyone they face to do.
Next: St. Bonaventure—A-10