2015 NCAA Tournament: Big 12 Bids
By Mike Marteny
Mar 3, 2015; Lawrence, KS, USA; The Kansas Jayhawks players celebrate with the championship trophy after the game against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas won their 11th consecutive Big 12 Championship 76-69. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2015 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.
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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Now we tackle what most experts believe was the best conference top to bottom all season long. They are not as top-heavy as the ACC, but there are some very good teams in the Big 12. Who will get in? Who will be left home? Let’s check it out!
A big win is a win against a RPI top 50 team. A bad loss is a loss to a team under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
A-10
American
Big East
Conference USA
Big Ten
LOCKS:
Kansas (26-7, 13-5 Big 12, RPI: 2, SOS: 1)
Big Wins: vs. (27)Michigan State 61-56, at (18)Georgetown 75-70, vs. (15)Utah 63-60, at (9)Baylor 56-55, vs. (48)Oklahoma State 67-57, vs. (16)Oklahoma 85-78, at (43)Texas 75-62, vs. (11)Iowa State 89-76, vs. (9)Baylor 74-64, vs. (43)Texas 69-64, vs. (23)West Virginia 76-69, vs. (9)Baylor 62-52
Bad Losses: NONE
Every loss was to a RPI top 50 team except the loss to rival Kansas State in Manhattan. If you want to know what the toughest schedule in the country looks like, take a look at this non conference slate: Kentucky, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida, Georgetown, Utah, Temple, and Kent State are all in the RPI top 100. They only lost two of those games to Kentucky and Temple. The bad part is that they were both blowouts. Then came the toughest conference schedule around. They beat ten more RPI top 100 teams in conference play. No wonder they have the most big wins of any team this year.
On paper, this doesn’t look like a dominant team. They lost Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins from last year, but Perry Ellis has stepped up and become the leader of this team. Frank Mason and Wayne Seldon are good distributors, and Mason has shown he can hit form anywhere. The suspension of Cliff Alexander hurts, and they need to hope that the injury to Ellis isn’t something that will keep him out of any tournament games. Otherwise it could be another disappointing March. Of course, in Kansas disappointing means not making the Final Four.
With Duke losing, Kansas and Wisconsin both have an outside shot at a one seed now. Of course, I think Kansas deserves it anyway. With all respect to Duke, this was an absolutely brutal schedule. Winning 26 games with that slate is a great achievement. They beat Baylor, who is a top 15 team, three times this year! Another win over Iowa State could be enough to get them that one. The Committee has shown a penchant in past years for rewarding conference regular season and tournament champions.
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Go Joe Bruin
Projected seed: 1 (Houston Region)
Mar 13, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Georges Niang (31) talks with media after the game against the Oklahoma Sooners during the semifinals round at Sprint Center. Iowa State won 67-65. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Iowa State (24-8, 12-6 Big 12, RPI: 11, SOS: 8)
Big wins: vs. (21)Arkansas 95-77, at (44)Iowa 90-75, vs. (48)Oklahoma State 63-61, at (23)West Virginia 74-72, vs. (2)Kansas 86-81, vs. (43)Texas 89-86, vs. (23)West Virginia 79-59, at (48)Oklahoma State 70-65, at (43)Texas 85-77, vs. (16)Oklahoma 77-70, vs. (43)Texas 69-67, vs. (16)Oklahoma 67-65
Bad losses: at (185)Texas Tech 73-78
Half of their wins were against the RPI top 50. HALF. They also beat RPI top 100 teams Georgia State, Alabama, and Kansas State. In any other conference, you would be talking about the Cyclones as a lock for a two seed. Not here.
Georges Niang and Jameel McKay are dominant post presences. Niang is an effortless scorer with the ability to shoot from outside as well. Sophomore guard Monte Morris averages 12 points a game and shoots an impressive 51.5%. That is almost unheard of for a guard. No wonder the Cyclones are 12th in the country in scoring (79 points per game), eighth in assists (16.6 per game), and 19th in shooting percentage (48.2%). They do so many things well. They are going to be a tough out.
The wins over Texas and Oklahoma in Kansas City are all just for show. Of course, they may have cost Texas a tournament berth. They were down 15 in the second half of that game, and the only time they led was when the clock hit 0:00. They were a three anyway, and aren’t going to move up. Even if they beat Kansas. Gonzaga secured a two by winning the WCC tourney, and Arizona is in the Pac 12 final. There is nowhere for them to move.
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Betsided
Projected seed: 3
Jan 3, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners guard Buddy Hield (24) shakes the hands of fans following the game against the Baylor Bears at Lloyd Noble Center. Oklahoma won 73-63. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma (22-10, 12-6 Big 12, RPI: 16, SOS: 9)
Big wins: vs. (28)Butler 59-46, at (42)Tulsa 87-68, vs. (9)Baylor 73-63, at (43)Texas 70-49, vs. (48)Oklahoma State 82-65, at (48)Oklahoma State 64-56, vs. (23)West Virginia 71-52, vs. (11)Iowa State 94-83, vs. (43)Texas 71-69, vs. (2)Kansas 75-73, vs. (48)Oklahoma State 64-49
Bad losses: at (143)Creighton 63-65, vs. (124)Washington 67-69
The losses to Creighton and Washington didn’t look so bad at the time, but they turned out to be. Half of Oklahoma’s wins were against RPI top 50 teams as well. They also collected wins over top 100 RPI foe UCLA.
Oklahoma boasts one of the most talented starting lineups in the nation. Buddy Hield is a pure shooter. Tyshawn Thomas and Ryan Spangler are tough in the post. Thomas is a power forward with the grace of a guard. The weakness of this team is depth. Rarely do they go more than eight deep. Fatigue often sets in later in games, and this team is prone to prolonged shooting slumps. Like the second half against Creighton or either game against Kansas State. They need to get some production from someone other than Khadeem Lattin off the bench to make a good tournament run.
The two losses to Kansas State made sure they could do no better than a three seed. Actually, the Sooners are in the same boat that Iowa State is: they have an impressive body of work, but nowhere to go with it.
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Stormin in Norman
Projected seed: 3
Mar 13, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears forward Rico Gathers (2) celebrates after scoring and drawing a foul in the game against the Kansas Jayhawks during the semifinals round of the Big 12 Championship at Sprint Center. Kansas won 62-52. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Baylor (24-9, 11-7 Big 12, RPI: 9, SOS: 3)
Big wins: vs. (40)Stephen F. Austin 67-51, vs. (11)Iowa State 74-73, vs. (16)Oklahoma 69-58, vs. (43)Texas 83-60, vs. (23)West Virginia 87-69, at (11)Iowa State 79-70, vs. (23)West Virginia 78-66, vs. (23)West Virginia 80-70
Bad losses: NONE
The thing that separates Baylor is that they “only” had eight wins against the RPI top 50. They did beat RPI top 100 teams in South Carolina, Memphis, and Texas A&M though. The three losses to Kansas will likely hurt their seeding some. Oklahoma and Iowa State were each able to split with the Jayhawks.
Rico Gathers is a force in the middle. He averaged 11.7 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. That could explain why the Bears are 10th in the nation in rebounds. Royce O’Neale isn’t the scorer that Gathers is, but he is another strong post presence. The Bears’ main weakness is outside shooting. They don’t have an accomplished scorer on the perimeter for the most part. Teams with good guards gave them trouble this year.
The three losses to Kansas and two losses to Oklahoma State, while not bad, will temper their seed compared to the rest of the top of the Big 12. Then again, they did beat Iowa State twice. A win over Kansas might have been enough for them to capture an elusive three seed.
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Betsided
Projected seed: 4
Feb 24, 2015; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Juwan Staten (3) against the Texas Longhorns at WVU Coliseum. The Mountaineers won 71-64. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
West Virginia (23-9, 11-7 Big 12, RPI: 23, SOS: 24)
Big wins: vs. (45)North Carolina State 83-69. vs. (46)Wofford 77-44, vs. (16)Oklahoma 86-65, vs. (2)Kansas 62-61, at (48)Oklahoma State 73-63, vs. (43)Texas 71-64, vs. (48)Oklahoma State 81-72
Bad losses: NONE
They had a weak non conference schedule compared to the rest of the league, but they did take down Connecticut for another RPI top 100 win. Losing three times to Baylor also hurts their bottom line.
Juwon Staten was the preseason player of the year, and he did not disappoint. Staten averaged 14.5 points and 4.6 assists per game, both team highs. Devin Williams and Jonathan Holton are good in the middle, but the Mountaineers struggled against teams with elite post players. That explains the loss to LSU and the three losses to Baylor. Oh, and the two losses to Iowa State.
The Mountaineers were the trendy pick to surprise the Big 12 this year. That never came to fruition. They were just 2-7 against the top four teams in the conference. They likely will end up as a six after losing to Baylor again, but truth be told, they don’t want a five seed anyway. Those are the ones that always get upset.
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Saturday Blitz
Projected seed: 6
Next: Which Teams Will Be Sweating On Sunday?
Feb 18, 2015; Stillwater, OK, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys guard/forward Le’Bryan Nash (2) with referee Larry Spaulding during a game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Iowa State won 70-65. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Bubble teams:
Oklahoma State (18-13, 8-10 Big 12, RPI: 48, SOS: 10)
Big wins: vs. (42)Tulsa 73-58, vs. (43)Texas 69-58, vs. (9)Baylor 64-53, at (43)Texas 65-63, vs. (2)Kansas 67-62, vs. (9)Baylor 74-65
Bad losses: at (137)TCU 55-70, at (185)Texas Tech 62-63
At one point, the Cowboys looked like they were going to be a five seed. Thy beat Texas, Kansas, and Baylor in three straight games. Then they went cold. They lost six of their last seven games after that, and find themselves as a bubble team.
On paper, this does not look like a very good team. They are in the bottom half of the nation in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage. LeBryan Nash is a G/F hybrid in the same vein as Tyshawn Thomas of Oklahoma. He is good at creating his own shot, and is a solid defensive guy. Michael Cobbins is a difference maker in the middle. He is a good rebounder and shot blocker.
This Cowboy team reminds me of the Oklahoma teams under Kelvin Sampson. They were the most talented bunch, but they sure were tough. That is Oklahoma State this year. You may beat them, but you will have to earn it, and you will have the bruises to prove it.
Losing six of their last seven has them in a free-fall seeding wise. It may cost them a bid all together. We all know that the Committee wants teams that are playing good basketball. The Cowboys are not right now. The only saving grace may be that win over Kansas, and two wins over fellow bubble team Texas.
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Betsided
Projected seed: 10
Feb 11, 2015; Austin, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns center Cameron Ridley (55) blocks a shot by Texas Christian guard Chauncey Collins (left) during the first half at the Frank Erwin Special Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports
Texas (20-13, 8-10 Big 12, RPI: 43, SOS: 14)
Big wins: vs. (44)Iowa 71-57, vs. (23)West Virginia 77-50, vs. (9)Baylor 61-59
Bad losses: NONE
The fact that they have no bad losses and a win over Baylor are the only reason Texas is still in the hunt. They did pick up some nice RPI top 100 victories out of conference against North Dakota State, Cal, and Connecticut. That certainly doesn’t hurt. I do think that the lack of quality wins could bite them.
Myles Turner was good as a freshman this year, but he was nowhere near living up to the hype. He was supposed to help the Longhorns contend for a conference title. Instead, they are one step away from the NIT. It’s not all on Turner. The Longhorns didn’t have enough of an outside presence to keep people from crowding the middle. They have some of the best shot blockers in the country in their front. They led the nation with 7.9 blocks per game. They force you to alter shots and think twice about going in the middle. If they get in, they won’t be a fun team to play.
They really needed to hang on against Iowa State. They dominated the Cyclones for 58 minutes. If the Committee decides to reward them for that lasting legacy instead of the last second shot that beat them, they will be a tough team to knock out. If you’re not used to facing these kinds of dominant post players, they can control a game.
Texas is really going to be hoping that Tulsa, Connecticut, and Dayton lose. Any one of those three could knock Texas out.
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Hook'em Headlines
Projected seed: 11 (play-in)
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we keep running down the conferences and NCAA tournament hopefuls!
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