2015 NCAA Tournament: Mountain West Bids
By Mike Marteny
Mar 14, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; The Wyoming Cowboys celebrate after defeating San Diego State 45-43 in the Mountain West Tournament final at Thomas and Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Here we are. March. This is the month that provides so many things for sports fans. The NHL and NBA are jockeying for playoff spots. The official beginning of the NFL “year” is here, and so are the cuts and trades that will form next year’s championship landscape. The Cubs have hopes of ending their championship drought. And the 2015 NCAA tournament is just a little less than a week away.
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Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Up next, we will take a look at the Mountain West Conference. Yes, they play basketball there too, and there are a few teams that could make some big names sweat. If they get in, that is. So, just how many Mountain West teams will get that elusive invite? Let’s find out!
A big win is a win against a RPI top 50 team. A bad loss is a loss to a team under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
A-10
American
Big East
Conference USA
Big Ten
Big 12
Missouri Valley
LOCKS:
Wyoming (25-9, 11-7 MWC, RPI: 79, SOS: 168)
Big Wins: vs. (28)Colorado State 60-54, vs. (42)Boise State 65-54, vs. (28)Colorado State 59-48, vs. (42)Boise State 71-66, vs. (24)San Diego State 45-43
Bad Losses: at (101)California 42-45, at (145)Utah State 44-56, vs. (184)Fresno State 59-64, at (109)UNLV 57-69, at (172)New Mexico 49-52
Let’s be honest, the Cowboys weren’t going to get in without winning the automatic bid. Yes, they beat Boise State and Colorado State twice this year, but the bad losses mounted.
The Cowboys are one of those teams that would sit down on the basketball if there weren’t a shot clock. They don’t have much for size, so they don’t rebound very well. Their answer to that is to take the air out of the ball. They slow you down. Their highest point total of the season was 78 points in the opener against Northern Colorado. They only scored 70 in a three overtime game against Fresno. You get the point. If your favorite team draws Wyoming, get ready for a war of attrition.
Quite simply, the Cowboys stole a bid. Whose bid did they steal? It’s impossible to know for sure, but major conference teams like Texas, Indiana, and UCLA are going to be a lot more nervous tomorrow evening.
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Projected seed: 12
Next: Is SDSU Still In?
Mar 7, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego State Aztecs players celebrate on the court after beating the Nevada Wolf Pack 63-47 and winning a share of the Mountain West regular season championship with Boise State at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego State (26-8, 14-4 MWC, RPI: 24, SOS: 78)
Big Wins: vs. (17)Utah 53-49, vs. (35)BYU 92-87, vs. (28)Colorado State 72-63, vs. (28)Colorado State 56-43
Bad Losses: at (126)Washington 36-49, vs. (184)Fresno State 57-59
The Aztecs also collected a win against Pitt out of conference, and beat the automatic bid winner Wyoming twice this year. The Utah win is going to help their seeding, and the BYU win will make sure they get in.
Don’t sleep on San Diego State. They are well coached, and took Arizona to the wire around Thanksgiving. The Aztecs allow the second fewest points in the country. They overcome their offensive deficiencies by smothering you. As you can see by the Washington loss, it doesn’t always work. If they run into a faced-paced team in the tournament, it will be fun to watch the contrast in styles.
The big question now is where will the Aztecs be seeded? They have seen a few teams go flying past them by advancing in their conference tournaments like Oregon and Xavier. When they first lost, I thought they still had a shot at a six. Now they will be lucky to get a seven. It is imperative that they stay out of the 8-9 game because of the strength of the one seeds this year.
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Projected seed: 8
Next: Is Colorado State Still In?
Feb 25, 2015; Fort Collins, CO, USA; Colorado State Rams guard Daniel Bejarano (2) and forward Stanton Kidd (11) react near the end of the second half against the San Jose State Spartans at Moby Arena. The Rams defeated the Spartans 72-56. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Bubble teams:
Colorado State (27-6, 13-5 MWC, RPI: 28, SOS: 110)
Big Wins: vs. (42)Boise State 71-65, vs. (24)San Diego State 79-73
Bad Losses: at (172)New Mexico
The loss to New Mexico could hurt. The fact that they beat RPI top 100 teams Georgia State, UCSB, and UTEP out of conference will help. That said, they went 2-5 against the other top teams in the conference. You can get away with that in the Big 12 or SEC, but that won’t go over well in the Mountain West.
Forward J.J. Avila leads the team in scoring and rebounding, but the one that could really make a difference is guard Daniel Bejarano. He hauls in over seven rebounds per game from his guard post, and is second on the team in assists. Like most mid-major teams, the Rams lack size, but they make up for it with hustle and toughness.
Colorado State has to be getting pretty nervous right now. Boise State won the regular season Mountain West title, and might not get in. The Rams have a better RPI, and more quality wins, but they didn’t play well against the best teams in their conference. Right now, I am thinking that the MWC only gets three in. Who the third is gets more cloudy by the minute. Do they take CSU’s RPI top 100 wins or do they take Boise’s regular season conference title? It makes for a great storyline tomorrow.
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Projected seed: 11
Next: Is Boise State Still A Lock?
Mar 13, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Boise State Broncos players react after a foul is called during the Mountain West tournament semifinals against Wyoming at Thomas and Mack Center. The Cowboys won 71-66 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Boise State (25-8, 14-4 MWC, RPI: 42, SOS: 112)
Big Wins: vs. (28)Colorado State 82-78, vs. (24)San Diego State 61-46, vs. (24)San Diego State 56-46
Bad Losses: vs. (136)Loyola-Chicago 45-48, vs. (145)Utah State 61-62, at (184)Fresno State
Will the two wins over SDSU be enough to get them in? That is the question on everyone’s mind right now. The idea of the Mountain West getting four teams in is preposterous to some, but it could happen.
Derrick Marks makes this team go. He averaged nearly 20 points per game in his senior year, and will be a tough one to guard if the Broncos get in. This is a dangerous team from outside, but will have serious issues if they draw a team with good size anywhere along the line.
I honestly think that Wyoming may have stolen their bid. Year after year, we have seen bubble teams from mid-major conferences lose out to a sixth or seventh team from a major conference. I know Boise State is ranked, but their RPI probably isn’t good enough. It is better than Texas or Indiana, but those two teams playing the schedules that they did could give them more of a benefit of the doubt than Boise. That is what the track record suggests.
Projected seed: OUT
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we finish out the series tomorrow, and bring you the 11th hour seeding. Then as soon as the brackets are out, we will have your picks so you can have them filled out by Tuesday!