2015 NCAA Tournament: Pac 12 Conference bids
By Mike Marteny
March 14, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; The Arizona Wildcats celebrate with the championship trophy after the championship game of the Pac-12 Conference tournament against the Oregon Ducks at MGM Grand Garden Arena. The Wildcats defeated the Ducks 80-52. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Up next, we will take a look at the Pac 12. Or as many people see it, Arizona and everyone else. How many of those “everyone else” will get in. Here’s a hint: it’s at least two!
A big win is a win against a RPI top 50 team. A bad loss is a loss to a team under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
A-10
American
Big East
Conference USA
Big Ten
Big 12
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
West Coast Conference
Pac 12 LOCKS:
Arizona (31-3, 16-2 Pac 12, RPI: 6, SOS: 35)
Big Wins: vs. (24)San Diego State 61-59, vs. (8)Gonzaga 66-63, at (27)Oregon 80-62, vs. (17)Utah 69-51, vs. (27)Oregon 90-56. at (17)Utah 63-57, vs. (27)Oregon 80-52
Bad Losses: at (109)UNLV 67-71, at (133)Oregon State 56-58
Bad losses aside, Arizona made short work of the Pac 12. They were 5-0 against Oregon and Utah, and their three victories over the Ducks were by an average of 30 points. That is domination, folks.
Arizona is a well rounded team that specialized in blowouts. They averaged 76.3 points per game, good for 23rd in the nation. They only allowed 58.6, which was the 15th lowest in the nation. This is a great shooting team, and a good rebounding team. Freshman Stanley Johnson was as good as advertised this year, leading the team in scoring an rebounds from his guard slot. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is an elite defensive player even if he is a little undersized. Brandon Ashley is a great compliment to Johnson in the middle. Arizona is good enough to play with anyone one in the field.
Arizona is a lock for a 2 seed, and has been for some time. The Pac 12 tournament title likely won’t get them up to a one, but if the committee seeds by Geography, they could be the two in the west where the weakest one seed will likely end up. Of course, that could be Wisconsin this year with as strong as the ones are. Kentucky and Villanova are locks for a one. Arizona could take Wisconsin’s if the Badgers lose in the Big Ten championship game today.
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Betsided
Projected seed: 2
Next: Where Does That Leave Oregon?
March 13, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Oregon Ducks guard Joseph Young (3, center) is congratulated after making the game-winning three-point basket against the Utah Utes after the game in the semifinal round of the Pac-12 Conference tournament at MGM Grand Garden Arena. The Ducks defeated the Utes 67-64. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon (25-9, 13-5 Pac 12, RPI: 27, SOS: 58)
Big Wins: vs. (17)Utah 69-58, vs. (17)Utah 67-64
Bad Losses: at (167)Washington State 99-108, at (126)Washington 77-85
The Ducks had several wins against RPI top 100 foes like Toledo, Illinois, UCSB, UC-Irvine, UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona State twice. The only RPI top 50 school they played out of conference was Virginia Commonwealth. They lost that game by 14. Aside from a terrible road trip up north in mid-January, the Ducks had a very solid season. Weren’t they supposed to be down this year? No one told them that.
Joe Young is a great pure shooter. He averaged over 20 points per game this year, and is also a pretty good passer and rebounder. He does a little of everything. Jordan Bell is still a work in progress on offense, but he is a game changer on defense. He averaged almost three blocks per game, and changed a whole slew of other shots. Oregon isn’t afraid to run with anyone. That should come as no surprise.
Their run to the Pac 12 tournament title game will likely have them seeded as high as seven instead of nine or ten. In fact, they could wind up in Gonzaga’s pod, setting up a potential second round matchup with the Bulldogs in Seattle, which is about halfway between the two schools. Don’t tell me that won’t be in the back of the Committee’s mind. This is for entertainment purposes, after all.
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Betsided
Projected seed: 7
Next: Where Does Utah End Up?
Feb 22, 2015; Eugene, OR, USA; Utah Utes guards Delon Wright (55) and Brandon Taylor (11) react to a foul call during the second half of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena. The Ducks won 69-58. Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Utah (24-8, 13-5 Pac 12, RPI: 17, SOS: 36)
Big Wins: vs. vs. (15)Wichita State 69-68, at (35)BYU 65-61
Bad Losses: at (126)Washington 68-77
The Utes gave San Diego State and Kansas all they wanted out of conference aside from beating Wichita State. The big out of conference wins will only help them, but the fact that they didn’t beat Arizona or Oregon this year will likely make their seed a little lower.
The Utes only allow 56.8 points per game, which is ninth lowest in the country. They are a really good defensive team, and they like to run the shot clock until they get a good shot on offense. Delon Wright does everything for Utah. He is the leading scorer, the assist leader, and is second in rebounds. He is a G/F hybrid that is very tough to guard. He also shoots 53% from the floor, so you have to worry about that as well. Seven foot freshman Jakob Poetl is a force to be reckoned with in the middle. He is a good rebounder and shot blocker, though is offensive skills are still unrefined.
Utah has done enough to warrant a five seed. Will the lack of quality in-conference wins matter? Some will say it already has since the Utes were ranked in the top ten for most of the season. They aren’t cracking the top 16 seeds, and will likely end up with an unenviable matchup in the 5-12 game.
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Saturday Blitz
Projected seed: 5
Next: Who Will Be Sweating Today?
March 11, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Stanford Cardinal guard Chasson Randle (5) celebrates after the game against the Washington Huskies in the first round of the Pac-12 Conference tournament at MGM Grand Garden Arena. The Cardinal defeated the Huskies 71-69. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Bubble Teams:
Stanford (19-13, 9-9 Pac 12, RPI: 57, SOS: 45)
Big Wins: vs. (46)Wofford 74-59, at (43)Texas 74-71
Bad Losses: at (197)DePaul 72-87, at (167)Washington State 88-89, at (117)Colorado 58-64
The Cardinal finished the season in a tailspin, losing eight of their last 12 games. They didn’t beat Oregon, Utah, or Arizona this year. That said, they did manage to knock off a few RPI top 100 foes in Connecticut and Arizona State.
Still, the fact that they did not make it to 20 wins will likely cost them. And the fact that they stumbled to the finish line. The Committee has made it perfectly clear that they take the way that teams finish the year into consideration. That is an ominous sign for the Cardinal.
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Betsided
Projected seed: OUT
Next: What About UCLA?
Mar 4, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Bryce Alford (20) is met by forward Gyorgy Goloman (14) and guard Noah Allen (22) after he leaves the game in the second half against the USC Trojans at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA won 85-74. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
UCLA (20-13, 11-7 Pac 12, RPI: 65, SOS: 33)
Big Wins: vs. (17)Utah 69-59, vs. (27)Oregon 72-63
Bad Losses: at (117)Colorado 56-62, at (133)Oregon State 55-66, at (101)California 62-64,
All of their key wins and losses were in the conference. They played Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Alabama, and Kentucky this year, so they had chances for some quality wins, but couldn’t hang with any of them except for Alabama.
It seems almost criminal to have someone with the talent of Norman Powell not be able to play in the NCAA tournament. Freshman Kevon Looney is on his way to being a force. Sophomore Bryce Alford is a very good passer and an accomplished scorer. UCLA has the talent, they just underachieved at times this year.
Wyoming winning the Mountain West is a bad sign for UCLA. Tulsa advancing as are as they did in the American tourney is not a good sign for them either. If UConn wins the American, then the Bruins are really toast. Of course, the lackluster RPI is also working against them.
There are some people that still have UCLA in, but I am not one of them. I would like to see them in because they could do some damage as an 11 or 12 seed. Right now, I just don’t see it. Too many teams fared better than the Bruins did down the stretch. Of course, have to face Arizona in the Pac 12 semis didn’t help.
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Betsided
Projected seed: OUT
Stay here at Fantasy CPR today for the SEC rundown, the intro to the one bid league teams, and the 11th hour seeding!
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