2015 NCAA Tournament: SEC Bids
By Mike Marteny
Mar 14, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats players watch during the second half of the semifinals of the SEC Conference Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Kentucky defeated Auburn Tigers 91-67. Mandatory Credit: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports
Here at Fantasy CPR, we will keep you up to date on which teams are fighting for a tournament berth, which teams are in, and which teams should be in. We will go conference by conference for the major conferences. The traditional one bid conferences will all get their day in print as well. Follow along as we unveil our projected teams up until Selection Sunday!
Up next, we will take a look at the SEC, where it really is Kentucky and everyone else. How many of those “everyone else” will get in. Here’s a hint: it’s at least two!
A big win is a win against a RPI top 50 team. A bad loss is a loss to a team under 100 in the RPI. RPI rankings are in parenthesis.
Just in case you missed any:
ACC
A-10
American
Big East
Conference USA
Big Ten
Big 12
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
West Coast Conference
Pac 12
LOCKS:
Kentucky (33-0, 18-0 SEC, RPI: 2, SOS: 32)
Big Wins: vs. (32)Buffalo 71-52, vs. (1)Kansas 72-40, vs. (23)Providence 58-38, vs. (43)Texas 63-51, vs. (12)North Carolina 84-70, at (21)Louisville 58-50, vs. (36)Georgia 69-58, vs. (22)Arkansas 84-67, at (36)Georgia 72-64
Bad Losses: NONE
You can’t say that Kentucky hasn’t earned where they are. The SEC is not overly tough, but it is a good conference. Kentucky played plenty of really good teams outside of their conference as well. Just go back and watch that bludgeoning of Kansas again if you don’t believe how good they are.
The whole starting five are household names to any college basketball fan by now. We also know that there isn’t really a true superstar on this team. They are very balanced and very well coached. You can’t just take one guy out of the game because the other four and the sixth man will figure out ways to beat you. The Wildcats have so many weapons, that you really do have to prepare for everything.
Kentucky is obviously the number one overall seed in the tournament. This isn’t even up for debate. The only thing being debated is whether Kentucky would be better off losing before the NCAA tournament starts. There are strong cases for it. Just look at Wichita State last year and UNLV in 1991. Bob Knight’s 1976 Indiana team was the last team to run the table and finish holding the National Championship trophy. Kentucky has 40 years of history working against them.
Live Feed
Go Joe Bruin
Projected seed: 1st overall
Next: Who Is The Best Of The Rest?
Jan 27, 2015; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Bobby Portis (10) greets the crowd during a game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas defeated Tennessee 69-64. Mandatory Credit: Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas (26-7, 15-3 SEC, RPI 22, SOS: 66)
Big Wins: vs. (14)SMU 78-72, vs. (49)Iona 94-77, vs. (30)Dayton 69-55, at (36)Georgia 79-75, vs. (36)Georgia 60-49
Bad Losses: at (104)Clemson 65-68
The loss at Clemson shouldn’t hurt the Razorbacks too much. They can shock the world by winning the SEC Tournament and handing Kentucky it’s first loss today, but it likely wouldn’t affect their seeding at all. Arkansas led the Wildcats back on February 28th with seven minutes to go, but collapsed down the stretch.
Bobby Portis is a force on the inside, and is a lot for most teams to handle. He is an accomplished interior scorer, and a very good rebounder. Guard Michael Qualls does a little of everything. He is second on the team in assists, points, and rebounds. This is a high scoring team because they pass the ball well from anywhere on the court. They love to get out and run, and will be a big problem for teams that lack the depth to run with them.
The weakness of the rest of the SEC will hurt when it comes to seeding. If Arkansas were to win tomorrow, I think they would take a four seed. The chances of that happening are pretty low, so I am going with the safe bet and keeping them where they are.
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South Bound & Down
Projected seed: 5
Next: Where Will Georgia Be Seeded?
Mar 14, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Georgia Bulldogs players react during the second half of the semifinals of the SEC Conference Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Arkansas Razorbacks defeated Georgia Bulldogs 60-49. Mandatory Credit: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports
Georgia (21-11, 11-7 SEC, RPI: 36, SOS: 43)
Big Wins: NONE
Bad Losses: at (153)Georgia Tech 73-80, vs. (127)Auburn 68-69
The Bulldogs earned nine wins over RPI top 100 teams, but none of them cracked the top 50. They beat bubble team Mississippi twice, and took out Texas A&M in College Station for their most impressive wins of the year.
Senior forward Marcus Thornton is the heart of this team. He is a good shooter from just about everywhere, and like the rest of the team, is a good rebounder. Guard Charles Mann is probably the best all-around player on the floor. The Bulldogs struggle with physical teams or teams that shoot well from the outside. Most of the SEC couldn’t exploit them, but Gonzaga, Minnesota, and Arkansas all did.
Making it to the SEC semifinals put the Bulldogs right back in the thick of things. They were 5-5 down stretch entering the SEC tournament. They needed one win, and they got it. Still, they likely won’t get up to a six seed or down to an 11, meaning they are going to have a very tough second round matchup wherever they end up.
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South Bound & Down
Projected seed: 9
Next: How Many Bubble Teams Get In?
Feb 21, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers forward Jordan Mickey (25) dunks against the Florida Gators during first half of a game at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Bubble teams:
LSU (22-10, 11-7 SEC, RPI: 54, SOS: 86)
Big Wins: at (25)West Virginia 74-73, vs. (36)Georgia 87-84
Bad Losses: vs. (104)Clemson 61-64, at (218)Missouri 67-74, at (217)Mississippi State 67-73, vs. (127)Auburn 77-81, vs. (127)Auburn 70-73
The two losses to teams under 200 in the RPI are going to turn some heads, and not in a good way. That will keep them sweating today. They desperately needed to beat Auburn to be comfortably in.
Jordan Mickey might be their best post presence since Shaquille O’Neal. Paired with Jarrell Martin, they form one of the best frontcourts in the country. That could be why they average 39.2 rebounds per game, good for 12th in the country. They struggle against teams with good guard play, and sometimes they were just, well, off. Consistency was an issue for the Tigers, especially in conference play.
The thing that might save LSU is that they beat Mississippi twice, a team that they are competing with for an invite. Mississippi does have better losses, and beat Arkansas, so it’s going to be really close. The chances of both of them getting in took a big hit when Wyoming won the Mountain West tournament.
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Death Valley Voice
Projected seed: 12
Next: Is Mississippi In?
Dec 7, 2014; Eugene, OR, USA; Mississippi Rebels guard Stefan Moody (42), center, is congratulated by teammates after making a buzzer-beating shot to end the first half of the game against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Mississippi (20-12, 11-7 SEC, RPI: 53, SOS: 50)
Big Wins: vs. (37)Cincinnati 66-54, at (27)Oregon 79-73, at (22)Arkansas 96-82
Bad Losses: vs. (166)Charleston Southern 65-66, vs. (139)TCU 54-66, vs. (120)Western Kentucky 74-81, vs. (111)Vanderbilt 77-86
The good wins were almost wiped out by the bad losses, though that win at Oregon keeps looking better. Their body of work looks better than LSU’s, but they lost to the Tigers twice.
The guard tandem of Stefan Moody and Jarvis Summers are the catalysts of this team. Both of them are fearless shooting the ball, and are pretty good passers. Teams with size on the inside really give them trouble, but if you don’t have good guard play, they can run circles around you.
A win over South Carolina in the opening round of the SEC tournament would have punched their ticket. Now they will be waiting along with LSU as two of the teams in the most danger of not getting an invite. Still, the three wins against the RPI top 50, two of them on the road, may have them feeling a little safer. If UConn wins the American tournament, either Ole Miss or LSU gets the boot.
Live Feed
Betsided
Projected seed: 11 (play-in)
Next: Does Texas A&M Have A Shot?
Mar 12, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Texas A&M Aggies forward Antwan Space (24) walks off the floor after a loss during the second round against the Auburn Tigers in the SEC Conference Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Auburn won 66-59. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Texas A&M (20-11, 11-7 SEC, RPI: 66, SOS: 84)
Big Wins: NONE
Bad Losses: vs. (127)Auburn 68-74
The loss to Auburn couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Aggies. All they had to do was win, and they were likely in. Their RPI and SOS are not good for a team needed help to get in. They didn’t do themselves any favors by not beating an RPI top 50 team. However, they did beat LSU twice.
The lack of a good out of conference win keeps them a shade below LSU and Mississippi. Of course, all three teams lost in their first game of the conference tournament, which opened up the door for a team like Tulsa that otherwise didn’t have much of a shot.
When it comes down to it, I think A&M’s poor RPI keeps them out. LSU and Mississippi will be lucky to get in with RPI’s in the 50’s. An at-large team in the 60’s getting in is unheard of.
Projected seed: OUT
Stay tuned to meet the teams that could destroy your brackets, the teams from the one bid leagues!
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