NCAA Tournament Watch: Don’t Overreact to Prospect Performance

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

It happens every year — a big-name NBA prospect gets lost in the Ides of March and everyone loses their minds. Suddenly, a surefire lottery pick is being picked apart by amateur and professional scouts alike. Meanwhile, the “experienced” guard du jour leads his team on a strong run through the NCAA Tournament, leading to one primary question: “Why aren’t we talking about [Player X] as a first-round pick?”

Taking nothing from the NCAA tournament would be disingenuous, but it’s important to consider it in the context of a longer season, rather than the end-all, be-all of player evaluation.

March is the loudest time period of prospect evaluation on the NCAA calendar. Just as playoff performance is used to deride NBA stars like Chris Paul and LeBron James, sub-optimal tournaments get held against players jockeying for draft position. Last year, it was a toothless Andrew Wiggins performance against Stanford that played into a narrative of timidity for the eventual No. 1 pick. It played into the notion that he wasn’t ready to contribute at the pro level, indirectly helping feed the beast that is the NBA’s age limit. Ditto for his peer Jabari Parker, whose Duke squad was upended by the likes of Mercer in their opening game. These are the guys expected to carry NBA franchises?

Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed in evaluating their body of work. It would just be refreshing if we didn’t have to revisit the same conversations every year.

The one-and-done format robs us of the greatest asset we have in prospect evaluation: time. Nothing is more precious in gauging someone’s performance than having as many looks at their skillset as possible. We know that Jahlil Okafor is a beast in the post because we’ve seen his skills translate against small-school fodder and big-conference powers. We know that Karl Towns’ defensive aptitude has shown up early and often throughout Kentucky’s currently unblemished season, and isn’t just a blip on the radar. These things will still be true even if Kentucky or Duke gets cut down by a Cinderella.

Likewise, there will almost certainly be a fringe prospect whose team emerges as something of a surprise, upending favorites and capturing the nation’s attention. When Shabazz Napier led UConn on a shocking run through the tournament  in 2014, he earned respect from fans, scouts and the NBA’s best player:

Napier may have been a tad under-looked heading into the tournament, but the troubling parts of his profile — namely his age — were not changed by the storybook run. He has had a relatively underwhelming run in Miami, and with the infusion of Goran Dragic to the roster, it’s hard to see him playing more than a bit role for the Heat going forward. Considering that they gave up multiple second round picks to acquire Napier’s rights, that’s a pretty bad outcome in the short-term and misuse of assets in the bigger picture.

Context is critical here. None of this is to say that the NCAA Tournament is a worthless endeavor, and in fact it provides a chance to see some of the best teams and talent in the nation match up. It’s worth keeping an eye on trends that might translate to the next level. Is Okafor continuing to struggle to cover pick-and-rolls? Is D’Angelo Russell trying to force at times when he should just keep the ball moving? And that’s without getting into match-up advantages, strategy kinks from zone to full-court press, or any number of factors that can tilt the scales on teams and their best players. Seeing is not necessarily believing in that case.

The volume of TV networks and internet sources carrying college basketball games has eliminated the excuse of ignorance heading into the tournament. Forget the top-level guys, there’s a good chance that you’ve had repeated opportunities to watch players like Providence’s Kris Dunn or Arkansas’ Bobby Portis. Not everyone has the time or motivation to formulate opinions and set a big board that covers two full draft rounds, and that’s okay. But 24/7 sports coverage has destroyed any notion that the NCAA Tournament is the one-and-only proving ground for NBA hopefuls.

My advice is to enter March Madness hopeful for new information, ready to factor whatever you learn into your grander understanding of each player. Just remember that one game this month, good or bad, isn’t necessarily more valuable than one against a conference opponent in January. Keep a cool head, enjoy the upsets, and remember the journey is equally important as the destination.