Can the Kentucky Wildcats be beaten, or is the outcome of the 2015 NCAA tournament a foregone conclusion?
As the second weekend of the 2015 NCAA tournament dawns the biggest question still lingers: can anyone beat Kentucky? The Wildcats are 36-0 entering the Sweet 16 and considering how they have played this season, an undefeated campaign seems like a foregone conclusion. But while John Calipari’s team has been nothing short of amazing this year, the Cats can certainly be beaten.
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The level of talent on Kentucky’s roster is staggering. With eight former five-star recruits the Cats are as deep as any team in 10 years. What’s even more amazing is they play well together. Somehow Calipari has gotten these guys to buy into sharing minutes and points in order to win a championship.
It is impressive, but they aren’t perfect.
When you watch tape on the Wildcats you realize quickly that their offense isn’t overly complicated. Kentucky doesn’t run intricate sets or anything too difficult to guard, the Cats just beat opponents with talent. Calipari puts his players in spots to beat opponents in a lot of one-on-one situations and it works well.
Kentucky shoots 46.6 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from beyond the 3-point line. Neither of those numbers is all that great, but what the Wildcats lack in shooting percentage they make up for with 12.9 offensive rebounds per game. The team that beats Kentucky is going to be the one that limits second-shot opportunities by blocking out. Which means it has to have capable big men who can challenge shots, then go rebound misses.
Additionally, to best the Cats a team will have to limit their opportunities in transition. Make Kentucky into a half-court offense that has to hit shots and you make them somewhere close to human. By getting back on defense and blocking out, that opponent will reduce Kentucky’s immense advantage in athleticism by a significant degree.
The problem for Kentucky’s opponents this year has been trying to attack its unbelievable defense. The Cats were second in the nation with 6.88 blocks per game and led the nation in opponent field goal percentage at 35.1 percent. That’s right, just 35.1 percent of shots found the bucket for Kentucky’s opponents. There is no way around it, to beat Calipari’s team you have to make shots. Naturally the thought would be to take more outside shots, but the Wildcats held opponents to just 27 pecent from beyond the arc as well.
To beat Kentucky, an opponent must attack the paint, but do so responsibly. Just driving in and throwing up shots will get those attempts swatted away, that would play into the Wildcats’ hands. No, the key is to draw those shot-blockers in, then either kick the ball out, or get them in the air and get fouled. If rim protectors Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns get into foul trouble, Kentucky’s inside presence will vanish. Cauley-Stein and Towns combine to average 4.1 blocked shots per game, and Cauley-Stein might be the team’s most valuable player because of his defense. An opponent looking to unseat the Cats will also have to make its free throws to take advantage of every last foul they commit.
You can also get some buckets in transition on Kentucky. The Wildcats often go really hard after offensive rebounds and that leaves them vulnerable to quick baskets the other way. An opponent needs to be smart enough to know when to run and when to slow down. That takes intelligent ball-handlers.
Anyone who wants to challenge Kentucky must be disciplined, fearless, supremely well-coached, with a good point guard and the ability to make shots. A few teams capable of doing all of those things are still left in the field.
Both Arizona and Wisconsin check all the requisite boxes for a potential upset of Kentucky. Each squad has size, toughness, an excellent coach, reliable point guard and can shoot well enough to pull off an upset. Luckily for Kentucky, only one of those teams can reach the Final Four as they would first face each other in the Elite Eight.
On the other side of the bracket, only three teams look like they could fit the bill of a Wildcat slayer: Duke, Gonzaga and Michigan State. Both Duke and Gonzaga have excellent size, reliable, play-making point guards who could control the action and enough athleticism to make Kentucky uncomfortable. The Spartans may look like an odd inclusion, but given one game to beat the biggest tournament favorite in 24 years, a team coached by Tom Izzo would be my first choice.
West Virginia freshman point guard Daxter Miles believes Kentucky’s undefeated run will end Thursday night. I’m not sure the Mountaineers will end the Wildcats’ run, but Miles is right that they do have weaknesses.
While Kentucky remains the overwhelming favorite to win the national title and complete a 40-0 season, there is no doubt the Wildcats can be beaten. It will take an almost superhuman effort to take them out, but there are teams left out there that could do it. Now lets see if they actually do.
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