NCAA Tournament Stock Watch

Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

We’re approaching one of the most prospect-laden, storyline-loaded Final Fours in tournament history. As we wait for Saturday to arrive, let’s take a moment to reflect on which prospects have improved their stock the most so far this tournament. Taking too much stock in one’s tournament performance is, of course, a dangerous game but, nevertheless — whether it’s Shabazz Napier or Tyrus Thomas — there are guys every year whose March auditions do wonders for their bank accounts on draft night.

For a multitude of reasons a really good tournament performance doesn’t always improve one’s draft stock and conversely, a poor performance is rarely as damning as a string of good performances when it comes to draft stock.

With that in mind, let’s get to business.

Group A: Well done, but there will still be doubters

These two guys, despite playing damn good basketball and leading their teams to the Elite Eight, are victims of genetics.

Montrezl Harrell: Harrell, who strongly considered leaving Louisville after last season but came back to work on his jump shooting, ball handling and passing, capped off a slightly underwhelming junior season with an impressive tournament run. Harrell looks like a middle linebacker but at 6-7 he’ll be an undersized front court player at the next level. His 7-3 wingspan will help to combat the height issue but scouts will wonder about his ability to contribute against NBA length. Harrell’s biggest strengths are his athleticism and his motor. He only knows one speed, which isn’t always a good thing, but the bigger knock on his game is his pedestrian skill level. He’s not a floor spacer, he doesn’t shoot free throws well and he’s a good but not an elite rebounder. Because he’s not in the freakishly good rebounder category, he’s more Quincy Acy than Kenneth Faried in my eyes.

Draft projection: Bottom third of the first round.

Kyle Wiltjer: Wiltjer is a tremendously skilled power forward who started the tournament shooting 18-24 in the opening two rounds before balancing out the scales a bit by shooting a much less impressive 10-25 over the final two games. We didn’t learn anything about Wiltjer in the tournament that we didn’t already know. He’s very skilled offensively and flashes major stretch-four potential as a James Jones-type niche player at the pro level. The two major concerns with Wiltjer are his frame and his foot speed. He spent last season working on his body while sitting out as a transfer from Kentucky. While it was clear that his efforts paid major dividends in terms of balance and fluidity, it’s still pretty obvious that Wiltjer’s body type isn’t one that’s designed to wrestle with the big boys. His All-American level season nevertheless put him on the radar moving forward.

Draft projection: Return to Gonzaga.

Group B: Going out on a high note

None of these guys dramatically improved their stock but they sure as hell didn’t hurt themselves either. This is the “good players who ended on a high note” category.

R.J. Hunter: Hunter, who declared for the draft yesterday, was the Sun Belt Player of the Year. He was asked to do a lot this season and his shooting numbers suffered because of it but he’s a dynamic scorer who, despite concerns about his explosiveness and lateral quickness, has the potential to turn into an instant offense guy off the bench down the road. He played for his dad at Georgia State and created major buzz when he a hit a game-winning three to knock out three-seed Baylor on the opening day of the tournament.

Draft prediction: Late first round

Jerian Grant: The first-team All-American didn’t shoot the lights out in the tournament but he sure as hell knows how to help his team win basketball games. Grant, the son of Harvey and nephew of Horace, isn’t a freak athlete like his brother Jerami but he’s an excellent distributor and has very good size (6-5) for a point guard. So far as tournament performance goes the key thing was that he nearly led his team to an upset of powerhouse Kentucky in the Elite Eight and he didn’t buckle under the bright lights. In addition to his size and proven bloodline, his experience, leadership abilities and conditioning level will also appeal to pro scouts.

Draft prediction: 12-20 range

Group C: The Big Risers

These three guys have all found a new gear on the biggest stage. What separates these guys from the others on the list is that they’ve all shown a level of play that we haven’t seen from them before.

Sam Dekker: Move over, Kenny Powers, there’s a new La Flama Blanca in town. Dekker was one of the most highly regarded recruits in Wisconsin history. It’s taken him a while to meet the lofty expectations but this tournament Dekker has been the man. He’s turned in back-to-back career performances against North Carolina and Arizona, scoring 23 and 27 points respectively. Dekker is a good athlete with prototypical size for a small forward who can get to the rim, moves very well off the ball and makes few mistakes on the court.

The two things that he’s doing exceptionally well this tournament are playing like an alpha dog and hitting the three ball. He was only a 33.8 percent three point shooter during the regular season. This post season he’s second in the tournament in three pointers made, while shooting at a 48 percent clip. He’s plagued by some of the typical white guy problems — so-so length and lateral quickness — but he’s been nothing short of awesome during Wisconsin’s second straight Final Four run.

Draft prediction: 12-20 range

Justise Winslow: Player of the Year canidate Jahlil Okafor has garnered most of the attention for Duke this season but fellow freshman Justise Winslow has been Duke’s brightest star this postseason. The talented swingman from Houston has pulled down an impressive 9.5 rebounds a game in the tournament and done a little bit of everything to lead Duke to the Final Four. His biggest moment came in the home stretch of the Gonzaga game where Winslow scored 7 of the team’s final 13 points and secured a number of key, hard fought rebounds. He is very much looking like an Andre Iguodala type.

Draft prediction: top-6

Karl-Anthony Towns: Towns’s talents have been well documented throughout the season but his stock improvement in the tournament boils down to two key factors. One, Jahlil Okafor has not been a dominant player over the past two games. Secondly, Towns, known for his defensive prowess, turned in a dominant offensive performance in scoring 25 points against Notre Dame with the season on the line. He’s an agile, New Age NBA big man whose ceiling as a potential two-way force has propelled him past Okafor on many of the major big boards. Basketball fans around the world are eagerly anticipating a potential Okafor-Towns matchup in the championship.

Draft prediction: Top pick