No longer No. 1, could Jahlil Okafor fall even further on draft boards?

Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Jahlil Okafor is a dominant college basketball player and an elite NBA prospect. He’s one of the best post-scoring 19-year-olds we’ve ever seen, and will surely hear his name called quickly in the 2015 NBA Draft should he declare. But lately, nearly every mock draft and expert has bumped Karl-Anthony Towns up to No. 1, with Okafor sliding down to No. 2. While a lot of this has to do with Towns dominating recently, there are a few issues with Okafor that might be looming in the minds of NBA teams looking to draft him; most notably, his offensive fit and defensive limitations.

While Okafor is by no means a terrible college defender, he certainly isn’t a good one. With a block rate of just 4.5 percent (and 1.9 blocks per 40 minutes), Okafor doesn’t provide the rim protection a lot of NBA teams seek out of starting centers. He does a good job of going vertical to make it somewhat difficult on college players, but, while he might appear as a mammoth brick wall in front of the rim to college players, it probably won’t quite get it done at the next level.

Furthermore, Okafor doesn’t have the necessary lateral quickness to provide solid coverage in the pick and roll game. This is likely not something that is going to improve significantly, and odds are he will get targeted defensively with pick and rolls often in the NBA.

Compared to Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, Okafor is not only down one name and hyphen to each, but the defensive shortcomings are glaring. Both Towns and Cauley-Stein project to be elite defenders at the next level, and either Wildcat big man will provide an anchor of rim protection for any NBA team. While Towns has shown the potential for tremendous offensive versatility, both aren’t on Okafor’s level in terms of an advanced offensive skill-set.

Here’s the biggest issue, however: Jahlil Okafor’s game isn’t a great fit with the modern NBA. While Okafor is almost a lock to be a great post scorer at the next level, the straight post-up is slowly going away in the NBA, giving rise to an era of ball movement and floor spacing. What contender currently in the NBA could you see a guy like Okafor fitting in with on the offensive end? The likes of the Warriors, Hawks, Spurs, and Cavs don’t want to focus their offense on slowing it down and getting it into the big guy in the middle. They want to keep the ball moving, spread the floor, and attack quickly. Something that Okafor could improve on to fit in at the next level is making quick decisions to attack in the post — if it’s there, go, and if not, kick it out.

Furthermore, it’s incredibly difficult to build a championship team in the NBA without an elite defense, and it’s even more difficult to build a great defense today without a capable defensive center. It hinders a lot of what you can do; it almost becomes a mandate that you have ball-hawking perimeter players, and it makes it more difficult to be flexible with the power forward spot.

Even with that in mind, there is one team in particular that makes the most sense for Okafor: the New York Knicks. There’s such a bare cupboard of future pieces in New York right now that they almost have to take the best player available. Not only that, but the Knicks are one of the few teams where Okafor would be a great fit offensively. If Phil Jackson is really intent on running the triangle offense in today’s NBA, Okafor is an obvious centerpiece for it.

The Los Angeles Lakers, on the other hand — another team waiting in the shadows for a top-five pick — would not be a good fit for Okafor. The Lakers’ only real long term pieces at the moment are power forward Julius Randle and combo guard Jordan Clarkson, giving reason for them to take the best player available. However, while Randle might develop into a great offensive player and elite rebounder one day, he won’t provide much floor spacing or rim protection.

If the Lakers paired Randle with Okafor, they certainly would have an intimidating young duo on offense and on the glass, but the defensive outlook of the team would be severely crippled; L.A. would be forced to find elite perimeter defenders that can shoot at every guard spot to even think about having the blueprint for a contender. Towns over Okafor in this situation is a no-brainer, and Cauley-Stein might even be preferable, if you’re trying to build a contender down the road.

All this being said, Jahlil Okafor is going to make one NBA team a hell of a lot better. His offensive polish in the low post is just insane. At 19-years-old, Okafor is already elite at scoring down on either the left or right block and turning either shoulder with a variety of moves. Whatever the odds are, you should bet on Okafor becoming the 2015-2016 NBA Rookie of the Year. But while Okafor might very well end up being the best player in the draft class, his defensive issues and offensive fit might force some teams to roll the dice with someone else.