Masahiro Tanaka expects a dip in velocity all season and that is probably not what the New York Yankees wanted to hear.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka has been noticeably throwing less hard in spring training than he was in the first half of his rookie 2014 season. Tanaka isn’t expecting that velocity to come back anytime soon, either.
In an interview with Andrew Marchand of ESPN, Tanaka said through an interpreter that he is preparing to pitch with less velocity for the duration of the season.
"“I’m going to try and establish a certain pitching style this year, so it is not the wisest to ask for velocity from me this year.”"
The dip in velocity stems from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament Tanaka suffered in July, which cost him 10 weeks of his rookie season. With the advice of doctors, Tanaka decided to rehab the injury rather than undergo Tommy John surgery.
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That decision allowed Tanaka to return in September for two starts in which he pitched seven innings combined, allowing six earned runs on 12 hits. Something was clearly off, as Tanaka dominated hitters in the 14 starts before the injury en route to a 1.99 ERA.
While Tanaka’s comments aren’t the end of the world, they certainly raise some red flags for the Yankees.
Rehabbing a partially torn UCL can work-Adam Wainwright got away with it for about five years- but it doesn’t have as high of a success rate as undergoing Tommy John. New York will really regret the decision if Tanaka goes down early in the season (a la Yu Darvish), particularly given the six-year, $133 million investment it has remaining in him.
Tanaka’s fastball is sitting at about 89 milers per hour in the spring after averaging 91.1 his rookie season. He’s not a guy who relies on throwing a fastball by hitters and has a (very) full arsenal of other dominant pitches, but such a dip in velocity indicates he is still injured and a new pitching style always has the potential to strain the elbow even further.
With a look at the Yankees’ rotation, it’s easy to see how they could be contenders, or a scenario where they finish in last place. Tanaka and Michael Pineda are a tremendously talented 1-2, C.C. Sabathia has had a fantastic career apart from last year, Ivan Nova will be back from Tommy John of his own in June and Nathan Eovaldi has plenty of upside.
Every team in the majors has some injury concern in its rotation. Rarely does a team have so much risk in the top three as the Yankees do in 2015.
If Tanaka can’t pitch through the injury and his season ends early, it won’t matter what the others do. The Yankees don’t have much margin of error in an AL East that isn’t the best division, but is one of the most even.
It’s not all doom and gloom- the doctors advised rehab for Tanaka and New York wouldn’t went along with the plan if it wasn’t confident. Tanaka will start with his reinvented style on Opening Day against the Toronto Blue Jays, with the Yankees watching nervously.
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